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Debit Cards in the U.S., 4th Edition

May 2012 | 152 pages | ID: DD5ED9480D6EN
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The twin pillars of retail banking revenue—debit interchange and overdraft fees—are under assault. As an integral part of consumer checking accounts, debit card transactions drive interchange revenue and are linked to overdraft fee revenue. On the heels of new check overdraft protection rules, debit interchange has been capped, and electronic debit transactions must now be processed over at least two unaffiliated payment networks. These changes are reshaping the debit card competitive landscape and driving sweeping changes in consumer banking relations, checking account and fee structures, and debit payment network economics.

Packaged Facts’ Debit Cards in the U.S. guides market participants through these changes and their significance to the marketplace: the evolving trends shaping the debit card landscape, marketplace winners and losers (debit card issuers, merchant acquirers, payment networks and card associations), and the impact these trends have on consumers and merchants.

While we expect debit to remain a checking account lynchpin, the bottom line is that the fee structures banks implement will determine not only the strength of debit transaction growth going forward, but also related growth in credit cards and prepaid cards—and could even spur a renaissance in cash and check. This report assesses the strategies financial institutions are employing to recoup debit and overdraft losses, including changes in fee structures, creative overdraft solutions, the fate of debit rewards and merchant-funded reward trends.

Through consumer survey analysis, this report also evaluates the role debit cards play in the use of other payment types, as well as how fee and account changes affect debit card use. This assessment includes trend analysis on lower-income consumers and Generation Y, two groups significantly impacted by the growth of debit and the consequences of regulation.

Additionally, the report’s market size and forecast, estimates of current debit interchange revenue, and analysis of "then and now" debit interchange revenue, are all based on data released by the Federal Reserve just prior to June 2012. This same Federal Reserve data were used to create not only tables, but revenue estimates for small and large banks, as well as PIN/signature.

But the debit card is not merely a payment method but a lynchpin of a wider array of cross-sold banking services. As such, the analysis in this report frames debit card patterns within the wider universe of consumer payment, banking service use, consumer loan product use, and consumer investment.
CHAPTER 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Scope and Methodology
  Scope of Report
Report Methodology
  Market size and forecast
  Consumer survey methodology
Report Summary
Debit card payment and transaction volume: market size & forecast
  Despite market upheaval, debit growth assured
  Many arguments in favor of continued growth
  $14 billion in interchange revenue is not small change
  But alternative payments beckon
  Credit cards for the affluent and well qualified
  Prepaid cards for unbanked and underbanked
  Signature v. PIN
  MasterCard PIN volume growth
  Short-term profit advantage among smaller banks
  Exempt banks generate almost 50% of debit interchange
  Outcome to be shaped by debit card usage and adoption cost changes
Regulatory Analysis and Impact
  Debit interchange final rule in effect
  Network exclusivity prohibition and routing provisions reshape competition
  Consumer Overdraft Protection: Challenges & Strategies
  Revenue estimate
  Revenue drivers
  90% of NSF fees accrued from customers with 5+ NSF transactions per year
  It ain’t over yet! New overdraft inquiry foretells continued scrutiny
Debit-Driven Innovations & Strategies
  A lesson learned: don’t add direct debit fee
  Banking distrust among Gen Y, lower-income adults and Hispanics grows
  Lesson still being learned: High-to-low balancing on the ropes
  Negative perception about overdraft penalties remain pervasive
  Creative overdraft solutions: Rewarding profitable behavior
  Creative overdraft solutions: grace period
  Creative banking solution: simplify fee structures; increase transparency
  Checking Account Policy and Fee Analysis: Three Leading Banks
Bank of America checking account analysis
  eBanking intended to drive down costs
  Not much change in one year
  Tiered account structure rewards customers with deeper banking relationship
  Flexible account thresholds
  Senior checking option
  No debit rewards, but customers can still Keep the Change
  Incremental charges for anything out of the ordinary
SunTrust checking account analysis
Fee limits based on transaction volume and size
ATM fee refunds—if you’ve got the money
Extended overdraft packs wallop, but the grace period creates wider safety net
Debit rewards alive and well
But fine print mitigates consumer awareness
JPMorgan Chase checking account analysis
  Low opening requirements; tiered platform rewards the affluent
  Student checking positioned to build relationship over time
  Fee differentiator: creative overdraft policy
Debit Cards in Context: The Consumer Payments Universe
  Payment card adoption rates
  Card and electronic payment adoption declines; cash use rises
  Consumer payment products: debit uptake continues
  Checking account holders exhibit higher usage of card products
  Debit card usage volume influences use of other card types
Debit Usage Trends
  Rise in debit penetration begins to taper
  Consumer banking backlash?
  Visa/MasterCard debit card use trends: cash, purchase & combination
  Age reveals peak usage
  HH income
  Differences between Visa and MasterCard uptake emerge
  Payment preference, by debit brand/type
  Consumers who prefer to pay with cash see value in using their debit card
  Non-engaged credit card users exhibit dip in debit use
Debit Card Usage Rationales & Influences
  Convenience and cash wariness fuel debit card use
  Exerting spending control
  Credit qualification issues less relevant
  Rewards on the way out—fast
  High-frequency debit user preferences
  Debit-only users more apt to cite creditworthiness
  Debit card-credit card users least apt to use debit to control spending
  Generation Y v. Swing Generation
  HH Income differentiators
Card Association Debit Trends & Strategies
MasterCard
  MasterCard client wins help set the stage
  Exclusivity death knell helps MasterCard pass 50% threshold
  And exposure on Visa-branded cards
  PIN share jumps
  Going forward: acquirer licensing fee in the works
  Quarterly comparisons: Q1 2011 v. Q1 2012
Visa
  Visa U.S. debit strategy
  Visa’s Fixed Acquirer Network Fee
  Exclusivity rule takes its toll
  Volume share drop: get used to it
  “We are never going to regain all of the market share . . .”
Silver lining
  Department of Justice inquiry
Visa by the numbers: trending debit metrics & ratios
  Q1 2012 tells quite a story
Debit Card Issuer Case Studies
Bank of America
  Reg E strategy and impact
  Overdraft strategy and fallout
  eBanking intended to drive down costs
  Quantifying customer base profitability
  Debit purchase volume leader
Durbin Amendment impact
  $1.7 billion annual debit interchange hit
  But debit volume continues to grow, surpassing credit card volume by 30%
JP Morgan Chase
  CARD Act takes a bite
  But the card segment is humming
  Merchant acquiring business is booming
Debit-driven trends, consequences & strategies
  Debit does not exist in a vacuum
  If you’re not going to generate revenue for us, don’t expect a free ride
  We believe this sets the stage for Chase Liquid prepaid
Changing banking economics necessitate a shift in strategy
  Checking accounts and debit transactions climb; revenue does not
  Threshold for profitability: $100,000 in deposits & investments?

CHAPTER 2: INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW

Introduction
  A simple transaction triggers a Byzantine process
Industry Structure: Participants and Processes
  Card association
  Demand deposit account (DDA)
  Card issuer
  Electronic Funds Transfer (EFT)
  Merchant acquirer
  Fees
  Signature-based (offline) transactions
  Figure 2-1: Path of a Typical Signature-Based Debit Card Transaction
  PIN-based (online) transactions
  Figure 2-2: Path of a Typical PIN-Based Debit Card Transaction
  Automated Clearing House (ACH)

CHAPTER 3: MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST

Debit card payment and transaction volume: market size & forecast
  Table 3-1: U.S. Debit Card Market Size and Forecast: 2006-2014
  Payment volume growth
  Graph 3-1: U.S. Debit Card Payment Volume: Market Size and Forecast: 2006-2014
  Transaction volume growth
  Graph 3-2: U.S. Debit Card Transaction Volume: Market Size and Forecast: 2006-2014
Despite market upheaval, debit growth assured
  Many arguments in favor of continued growth
  $14 billion in interchange revenue still not small change
  But alternative payments beckon
  Credit cards for the affluent and well qualified
  Table 3-2: Card Issuer Quarterly Credit Card & Debit Card Purchase & Acquiring Volume Growth Trends: 2010-2012
  Prepaid cards for unbanked and underbanked
Signature v. PIN
  Table 3-3: U.S. Debit Card Payment and Transaction Volume: PIN v. Signature, 2011
  Difference between PIN and signature debit interchange evaporates
  Table 3-4: U.S. Debit Card Payment and Transaction Volume: PIN v. Signature, 2011
  PIN gaining quickly on signature
  Table 3-5: Monthly Dollar Volume Growth: Check, PIN Debit and Signature Debit: January 2011 - March 2012
  MasterCard PIN volume growth
Short-term profit advantage among smaller banks
  Exempt banks generate almost 50% of debit interchange
  Table 3-6: U.S. Debit Card Interchange Revenue: Exempt v. Non-Exempt Debit Issuers, 2011
Outcome to be shaped by debit card usage and adoption cost changes
  Consumers may migrate to alternative payments if cost of debit card use rises
  Usage cost v. adoption cost
  Assessment of cost helps understand Durbin effect
  Lower-income users more adversely affected
  Debit usage cost increases to drive cash and check resurgence
  Credit cards a more important long-run substitute
  Debit adoption cost increases also tilt more heavily to paper payments

CHAPTER 4: REGULATORY ANALYSIS AND IMPACT

Introduction
The Durbin Amendment: Challenges and Strategies
  The Durbin Amendment & Debit Interchange
  Final rule in effect
  Network exclusivity prohibition and routing provisions reshape competition
Woe to debit interchange!
  Debit interchange loss analysis
Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection
  What is it and what is it supposed to do?
  What is the scope of its authority?
  Broad rule-making authority
  Broad enforcement authority
Consumer Overdraft Protection: Challenges & Strategies
The Key Provision: Regulation E
  What is it?
  Amendments and their effect
  Revenue estimate
  Earnings estimates
  Revenue drivers
  90% of NSF fees accrued from customers with 5+ NSF transactions per year
  Regulatory onus
  Steering high-frequency overdraft users
It ain’t over yet! New overdraft inquiry foretells continued scrutiny
  Fees too high?
  Billions at risk

CHAPTER 5: DEBIT-DRIVEN INNOVATIONS & STRATEGIES

Introduction and summary analysis
A lesson learned: don’t add direct debit fee
  Bank Transfer Day
  Banking distrust among Gen Y, lower-income adults and Hispanics grows
  Table 5-1: Consumer Trust in Giving Money to Banks among Younger Adults, Low-Income Adults and Hispanics, 2008-2011
Lesson learned: High-to-low balancing on the ropes
  Flashback: Wells Fargo litigation sets precedent for additional litigation
  For how much could the industry be on the hook?
  The details: High-to-low posting under legal fire
  Commingling and deployment of the shadow line
  Legal conclusion: gouging & profiteering drove overdraft program changes
  Fast forward: Citizens Bank
Negative perception about overdraft penalties remain pervasive
  Most overdrafts not covered by transfers; overdrafts spur account closings
  Decline my transaction, please!
  Table 5-2: Consumer Attitudes Toward Overdraft Protection, 2012
  Age and income correlate to incurring overdraft fees
Creative solutions
  Peoples Bank rolls out checking products that boost service charge income
  Assessing unprofitable accounts
  Rewarding profitable behavior
  Assessing by financial behavior and demographic
  Customer analysis followed by conversion notice
Huntington Bancshares rolls out creative overdraft solutions
  Free stuff and grace periods
  Bottom line grows
Simplify fee structures; increase transparency
  TD Bank introduces simpler fee disclosures
Other solutions
  Wells Fargo fee increases
  Citizens Bank boosts checking fees
Checking Account Policy and Fee Analysis: Three Leading Banks
Bank of America checking account analysis: Q1 2011 v. Q1 2012
  eBanking intended to drive down costs
  Not much change in one year
  Tiered account structure rewards customers with deeper banking relationship
  Flexible account thresholds
  Senior checking option
  Names change; structure stays the same
  But service charge and daily balance changes noted
  No debit rewards, but customers can still Keep the Change
  Incremental charges for anything out of the ordinary
  Table 5-3: Bank of America Checking Account Features and Fees, by Account, May 2012
SunTrust checking account analysis
  Debit rewards holdout balances perks with fees
  Fee limits based on transaction volume and size
  ATM fee refunds—if you’ve got the money
  Extended overdraft packs wallop, but the grace period creates wider safety net
  Debit rewards alive and well
  PIN and signature debit transactions welcome
  But fine print mitigates consumer awareness
  Table 5-4: SunTrust Checking Account Features and Fees, by Account, May 2012
JPMorgan Chase checking account analysis
Low opening requirements; tiered platform rewards the affluent
  Student checking positioned to build relationship over time
  Fee differentiator: creative overdraft policy
  Table 5-5: JPMorgan Chase Checking Account Features and Fees, by Account, May 2012

CHAPTER 6: DEBIT CARDS IN CONTEXT: THE CONSUMER PAYMENTS UNIVERSE

Introduction and summary analysis
  Payment card adoption rates
  Card and electronic payment adoption declines; cash use rises
  Consumer payment products: debit uptake continues
  Checking account holders exhibit higher usage of card products
  Debit card usage volume influences use of other card types
Perspective on the consumer payments universe
  Payment cards still rule
  Penetration gap between debit and credit widens
  For credit cards, rewards still a force
  Contactless payments
  Table 6-1: Current Adoption of Payment Instruments, by Instrument Features, 2008-2009
Other trends
  Small business debit use reaches majority status
  Small ticket purchases now more expensive
Credit card share of wallet three times that of debit
  Debit wallet footprint underscores importance as relationship touch point
  Table 6-2: Number of Adopted Bank Accounts and Payment Cards, 2008-2009
Usage of paper instruments remains universal
  And gain traction while card and electronic payment penetration falls
  Table 6-3: Incidence Use of Payment Instruments in a Typical Month, by Type of Instrument, 2008-2009
  Card payment share falls below 50%
  But cash and check gain share!
  Uptick in use of cash continues past the financial crisis
  Electronic payment share remains low
  Table 6-4: Usage Frequency and Share of Payment Instruments in a Typical Month, by Type of Instrument, 2008-2009
Consumer payment products: debit uptake continues
  After dropping during recession, credit card use stabilizes
  More than 1 in 10 adults use a prepaid card
  Table 6-5: Consumer Payment Products Usage, by Type, 2007-2011
Checking account holders exhibit higher usage of card products
  Credit card penetration remains higher than debit
  Table 6-6: Consumer Payment Products Usage, by Type: Checking Account Holders, 2007-2011
Consumer banking product usage trends a mixed bag
  Table 6-7: Consumer Banking Products Usage, by Type, 2007-2011
Consumer loans in decline
  Table 6-8: Consumer Loan Products, by Type, 2007-2011
Consumer investment ownership also falls
  Table 6-9: Consumer Investments, by Type, 2007-2011
  Checking account holders w/ debit cards also less apt to have investments
  Table 6-10: Consumer Investments, by Type, Checking Account Holders with Debit/ATM Card, 2007-2011
Credit card usage and engagement
  Table 6-11: Credit Card Engagement, 2007-2011
Card and online payments increase bill payment share
  Table 6-12: Bill Payment Methods, 2008-2011
Debit card usage volume influences use of other card types
  Table 6-13: Card Engagement, by Card Type: All Adults, Engaged Debit Card Users & High-Frequency Debit Card Users, 2012
  Card usage among high-frequency debit users
  Table 6-14: High-Frequency Card Use, by Card Type: All Adults, Engaged Debit Card Users & High-Frequency Debit Card Users, 2012


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