Real- Estate Comprehensive Report Q4/2019
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET
After a long time of bubble development with a virtual price and then falling into a recession, house prices have gradually returned to the real value. In the first 9 months of the year, the retail market in Hanoi was gloomy, no new projects were launched, the situation did not change much compared to Q4/ 2018. While the HCM.City market continued to increase the retail supply, the rental rates as well as the occupancy rates were improved.
The office supply in 2 major markets - Hanoi as well as TP. Ho Chi Minh City all received significant additions in Q4/2018. The demand for offices across the country is forecast to continue to grow thanks to the high economic growth prospects and the abundant investment flows both domestic and abroad.
With an export-oriented economy, with exports accounting for a significant proportion of xx% of GDP, Vietnam is attracting a large and growing amount of foreign investment. With the increasing demand for land and industrial plants, this segment will continue to be an attractive investment channel.
In the first 9 months of 2019, while the apartment market for sale in Hanoi was vibrant due to the plentiful new supply to the market, Ho Chi Minh City also experienced a decrease in supply as well as sales due to the limited land fund. However, the price offered by HCM. City increased strongly in Q4/ 2019 due to some projects in the high-end segment marketed.
According to the latest announcement of the Ministry of Construction, the inventory number as of the end of September 2019 is estimated at xx billion dong, continuing the downward trend thanks to the stable market development, good sales in many segment.
In 2018, the real estate market witnessed a large number of M&A deals whose scale was up to over $x billion. Vietnam is forecasted to be a potential medium and long-term investment market for at least the next 5 years.
After a long time of bubble development with a virtual price and then falling into a recession, house prices have gradually returned to the real value. In the first 9 months of the year, the retail market in Hanoi was gloomy, no new projects were launched, the situation did not change much compared to Q4/ 2018. While the HCM.City market continued to increase the retail supply, the rental rates as well as the occupancy rates were improved.
The office supply in 2 major markets - Hanoi as well as TP. Ho Chi Minh City all received significant additions in Q4/2018. The demand for offices across the country is forecast to continue to grow thanks to the high economic growth prospects and the abundant investment flows both domestic and abroad.
With an export-oriented economy, with exports accounting for a significant proportion of xx% of GDP, Vietnam is attracting a large and growing amount of foreign investment. With the increasing demand for land and industrial plants, this segment will continue to be an attractive investment channel.
In the first 9 months of 2019, while the apartment market for sale in Hanoi was vibrant due to the plentiful new supply to the market, Ho Chi Minh City also experienced a decrease in supply as well as sales due to the limited land fund. However, the price offered by HCM. City increased strongly in Q4/ 2019 due to some projects in the high-end segment marketed.
According to the latest announcement of the Ministry of Construction, the inventory number as of the end of September 2019 is estimated at xx billion dong, continuing the downward trend thanks to the stable market development, good sales in many segment.
In 2018, the real estate market witnessed a large number of M&A deals whose scale was up to over $x billion. Vietnam is forecasted to be a potential medium and long-term investment market for at least the next 5 years.
Abbreviations
Executive summary
1. BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
1.1 Macroeconomic situation
1.2 Legal framework
1.3 Impact of trade agreements
2. VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET
3.1 Industry concepts and characteristics
3.2 The period of volatility of Vietnam Real Estate Market
3.3 Movement of the real estate market
3.3.1 Real estate for rent
3.3.2 Real estate for sale
3.4 Risks and challenges
3.4.1 Risks
3.4.2 Challenges
3.4.3 SWOT
3.5 Housing development planning
3.6 Driving forces
3.7 M&A trend
4. ENTERPRISE ANALYSIS
5. APPENDIX
Financial statements
Executive summary
1. BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
1.1 Macroeconomic situation
1.2 Legal framework
1.3 Impact of trade agreements
2. VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET
3.1 Industry concepts and characteristics
3.2 The period of volatility of Vietnam Real Estate Market
3.3 Movement of the real estate market
3.3.1 Real estate for rent
3.3.2 Real estate for sale
3.4 Risks and challenges
3.4.1 Risks
3.4.2 Challenges
3.4.3 SWOT
3.5 Housing development planning
3.6 Driving forces
3.7 M&A trend
4. ENTERPRISE ANALYSIS
5. APPENDIX
Financial statements
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Increase or decrease in CPI of goods and services, 9M/2019
Table 2: Typical projects are scheduled for 2019-2020
Table 3: Typical projects are expected to be completed in 2019-2020
Table 4: Significant office leases in Q3 / 2019
Table 5: Typical projects under construction, 2019
Table 6: Big office deals (>1,000m?) in Hanoi, 2018
Table 7: Typical projects under construction
Table 8: Big office deals in HCMC, 2018
Table 9: Typical projects in the period 2018-2020
Table 10: Typical projects in the period 2018-2025
Table 11: Typical Serviced Apartments in Hanoi, 2019
Table 12: Typical projects under construction, 2019
Table 13: Typical projects are projected to complete
Table 14: Typical projects are open for sale
Table 15: Typical projects are expected to complete
Table 16: 20 cities with the highest average income per capita in 2019 in the world
Table 17: LPI Index rank of Vietnam, 2007- 2018
Table 18: Outstanding M&A transactions in real estate business in 2018
Table 19: Major shopping centers of AEON in Vietnam
Table 20: Top Real Estate enterprises with highest revenue, 2018
Table 1: Increase or decrease in CPI of goods and services, 9M/2019
Table 2: Typical projects are scheduled for 2019-2020
Table 3: Typical projects are expected to be completed in 2019-2020
Table 4: Significant office leases in Q3 / 2019
Table 5: Typical projects under construction, 2019
Table 6: Big office deals (>1,000m?) in Hanoi, 2018
Table 7: Typical projects under construction
Table 8: Big office deals in HCMC, 2018
Table 9: Typical projects in the period 2018-2020
Table 10: Typical projects in the period 2018-2025
Table 11: Typical Serviced Apartments in Hanoi, 2019
Table 12: Typical projects under construction, 2019
Table 13: Typical projects are projected to complete
Table 14: Typical projects are open for sale
Table 15: Typical projects are expected to complete
Table 16: 20 cities with the highest average income per capita in 2019 in the world
Table 17: LPI Index rank of Vietnam, 2007- 2018
Table 18: Outstanding M&A transactions in real estate business in 2018
Table 19: Major shopping centers of AEON in Vietnam
Table 20: Top Real Estate enterprises with highest revenue, 2018
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: GDP growth by quarter, 2016 - 2019
Figure 2: FDI in the first 9 months, 2012 - 2019
Figure 3: Average interest rate, 2012 – 3T/2019
Figure 4: Monthly CPI fluctuation, 1/2015 -9/2019
Figure 5: Consumer Confidence Index, Q1/2014 – Q1/2019
Figure 6: Number of enterprises in Vietnam real estate business, 2010-2017
Figure 7: Number of labours in Vietnam real estate business, 2010-2017
Figure 8: Real estate revenue, 2010-2017
Figure 9: Vietnam real estate business’s before-tax profit, 2010-2017
Figure 10: Total supply by category, 9/2019
Figure 11: Supply structure by region, 9/2019
Figure 12: Vacancy rates and rental prices, 9/2019
Figure 13: Rental supply of commercial center, 2010- 9/2019
Figure 14: Rental price and vacancy rates of commercial center, 2010- 9/2019
Figure 15: Total supply, 9/2019
Figure 16: Retail supply structure by region, 9/2019
Figure 17: Vacancy rate and rental prices, Q3/2019
Figure 18: Supply of commercial center for lease 2013-9/2019
Figure 19: Rental price and vacancy rate of commercial centers, 2009-2018
Figure 20: Structure of retail area for rent by purpose, 2015
Figure 21: Structure of retail area for rent by purpose, 2018
Figure 22: New supply and vacancy rate of grade A offices, 9/2019
Figure 23: Office rental price, Q1/2016- Q3/2019
Figure 24: Average rental price by area, Q3/2019
Figure 25: Structure of office for rent by industry, 2018
Figure 26: Office supply and vacancy rate, Q1/2017-Q3/2019
Figure 27: Total supply and rental price by category, 9/2019
Figure 28: Office rental price, Q1/2016-Q3/2019
Figure 29: Structure of office for rent by industry, 2018
Figure 30: Structure of co-working space for rent by enterprise, 2018
Figure 31: Total Supply by Region, 6/2019
Figure 32: Rental price by area, Q2/2019
Figure 33: Total supply and vacancy rate of Northern Industrial Zone, 6/2019
Figure 34: Average rental price for the Northern Industrial Zone, Q2/2019
Figure 35: Total supply and vacancy rate, Q2/2019
Figure 36: Rental price by area, Q2/2019
Figure 37: Vacancy rate, 2011- 2018
Figure 38: Rental price for factories available, 2011 – 2018
Figure 39: Rental price for land by area, 2011 – 2018
Figure 40: Total Supply by Category, 2015-9/2019
Figure 41: Apartment rental price by category, Q1/2015-Q3/2019
Figure 42: Apartment rental price and rental capacity, Q1/2017-Q3/2019
Figure 43: Total supply of apartments for rent, Q1/2017-Q3/2018
Figure 44: Apartment rental prices by class, Q1/2017-Q3/2019
Figure 45: Hotel total supply, Q1/2017 – 9/2019
Figure 46: Rental price and capacity, Q1/2017-9/2019
Figure 47: Hotel total supply, Q1/2017-Q3/2019
Figure 48: Average rental price and capacity, Q1/2017-Q3/2019
Figure 49: Housing supply in Hanoi, 2010-9/2019
Figure 50: Price fluctuation of apartment for sale, Q1/2011 - 9/2019
Figure 51: New supply and number of apartments sold,
2014-9/2019
Figure 52: Offer price for apartment in Ho Chi Minh City, Q1/2015 – Q3/2019
Figure 53: Total villa/townhouse supply, Q1/2017-Q3/2019
Figure 54: Price fluctuation of villas and townhouses,
Q1/2017-Q3/2019
Figure 55: Total villa/townhouse supply, Q1/2016 –Q3/2019
Figure 56: House price on income in Vietnam, 2011 – 2019
Figure 57: Stock value of real estate, 9/2015 – 4/2019
Figure 58: Proportion of logistics cost in Vietnam’s GDP in 2016,
compared to other countries
Figure 59: Invest capital in types of transportation,2010-2015
Figure 60: LPI Index ranks of ASEAN countries, 2010-2018
Figure 61: Level of urbanization, 2010 - 2018
Figure 62: Disposable income and household expenditures, 2008 – 2017f
Figure 63: Outstanding credit of Real estate, 12/2012-12/2018
Figure 64: Structure of real estate credit balance, 2018
Figure 65: Structure of population by stratification (expenditure), 2013 – 2020f
Figure 66: Number of tourists, 2014-9/2019
Figure 67: Vietnam’s revenue in real estate business, 2010-2022f
Figure 68: Net revenue growth, 2017-2018
Figure 69: Gross profit growth, 2018
Figure 70: Liquidity ratio, 2018
Figure 71: Receivable turnover, 2018
Figure 72: Solvency. 2018
Figure 73: Asset turnover ratio, 2018
Figure 74: Fixed asset turnover, 2018
Figure 75: Enterprise management expenses/ Net revenue, 2017-2018
Figure 76: Interest Expense/Net revenue, 2016 - 2017
Figure 77: Sale expenses/ Net revenue, 2017-2018
Figure 78: Profit ratio , 2018
Figure 79: Distribution of supermarkets in Vietnam, by region,
2017
Figure 80: Retail market share in Vietnam, 2016
Figure 1: GDP growth by quarter, 2016 - 2019
Figure 2: FDI in the first 9 months, 2012 - 2019
Figure 3: Average interest rate, 2012 – 3T/2019
Figure 4: Monthly CPI fluctuation, 1/2015 -9/2019
Figure 5: Consumer Confidence Index, Q1/2014 – Q1/2019
Figure 6: Number of enterprises in Vietnam real estate business, 2010-2017
Figure 7: Number of labours in Vietnam real estate business, 2010-2017
Figure 8: Real estate revenue, 2010-2017
Figure 9: Vietnam real estate business’s before-tax profit, 2010-2017
Figure 10: Total supply by category, 9/2019
Figure 11: Supply structure by region, 9/2019
Figure 12: Vacancy rates and rental prices, 9/2019
Figure 13: Rental supply of commercial center, 2010- 9/2019
Figure 14: Rental price and vacancy rates of commercial center, 2010- 9/2019
Figure 15: Total supply, 9/2019
Figure 16: Retail supply structure by region, 9/2019
Figure 17: Vacancy rate and rental prices, Q3/2019
Figure 18: Supply of commercial center for lease 2013-9/2019
Figure 19: Rental price and vacancy rate of commercial centers, 2009-2018
Figure 20: Structure of retail area for rent by purpose, 2015
Figure 21: Structure of retail area for rent by purpose, 2018
Figure 22: New supply and vacancy rate of grade A offices, 9/2019
Figure 23: Office rental price, Q1/2016- Q3/2019
Figure 24: Average rental price by area, Q3/2019
Figure 25: Structure of office for rent by industry, 2018
Figure 26: Office supply and vacancy rate, Q1/2017-Q3/2019
Figure 27: Total supply and rental price by category, 9/2019
Figure 28: Office rental price, Q1/2016-Q3/2019
Figure 29: Structure of office for rent by industry, 2018
Figure 30: Structure of co-working space for rent by enterprise, 2018
Figure 31: Total Supply by Region, 6/2019
Figure 32: Rental price by area, Q2/2019
Figure 33: Total supply and vacancy rate of Northern Industrial Zone, 6/2019
Figure 34: Average rental price for the Northern Industrial Zone, Q2/2019
Figure 35: Total supply and vacancy rate, Q2/2019
Figure 36: Rental price by area, Q2/2019
Figure 37: Vacancy rate, 2011- 2018
Figure 38: Rental price for factories available, 2011 – 2018
Figure 39: Rental price for land by area, 2011 – 2018
Figure 40: Total Supply by Category, 2015-9/2019
Figure 41: Apartment rental price by category, Q1/2015-Q3/2019
Figure 42: Apartment rental price and rental capacity, Q1/2017-Q3/2019
Figure 43: Total supply of apartments for rent, Q1/2017-Q3/2018
Figure 44: Apartment rental prices by class, Q1/2017-Q3/2019
Figure 45: Hotel total supply, Q1/2017 – 9/2019
Figure 46: Rental price and capacity, Q1/2017-9/2019
Figure 47: Hotel total supply, Q1/2017-Q3/2019
Figure 48: Average rental price and capacity, Q1/2017-Q3/2019
Figure 49: Housing supply in Hanoi, 2010-9/2019
Figure 50: Price fluctuation of apartment for sale, Q1/2011 - 9/2019
Figure 51: New supply and number of apartments sold,
2014-9/2019
Figure 52: Offer price for apartment in Ho Chi Minh City, Q1/2015 – Q3/2019
Figure 53: Total villa/townhouse supply, Q1/2017-Q3/2019
Figure 54: Price fluctuation of villas and townhouses,
Q1/2017-Q3/2019
Figure 55: Total villa/townhouse supply, Q1/2016 –Q3/2019
Figure 56: House price on income in Vietnam, 2011 – 2019
Figure 57: Stock value of real estate, 9/2015 – 4/2019
Figure 58: Proportion of logistics cost in Vietnam’s GDP in 2016,
compared to other countries
Figure 59: Invest capital in types of transportation,2010-2015
Figure 60: LPI Index ranks of ASEAN countries, 2010-2018
Figure 61: Level of urbanization, 2010 - 2018
Figure 62: Disposable income and household expenditures, 2008 – 2017f
Figure 63: Outstanding credit of Real estate, 12/2012-12/2018
Figure 64: Structure of real estate credit balance, 2018
Figure 65: Structure of population by stratification (expenditure), 2013 – 2020f
Figure 66: Number of tourists, 2014-9/2019
Figure 67: Vietnam’s revenue in real estate business, 2010-2022f
Figure 68: Net revenue growth, 2017-2018
Figure 69: Gross profit growth, 2018
Figure 70: Liquidity ratio, 2018
Figure 71: Receivable turnover, 2018
Figure 72: Solvency. 2018
Figure 73: Asset turnover ratio, 2018
Figure 74: Fixed asset turnover, 2018
Figure 75: Enterprise management expenses/ Net revenue, 2017-2018
Figure 76: Interest Expense/Net revenue, 2016 - 2017
Figure 77: Sale expenses/ Net revenue, 2017-2018
Figure 78: Profit ratio , 2018
Figure 79: Distribution of supermarkets in Vietnam, by region,
2017
Figure 80: Retail market share in Vietnam, 2016
