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Review & Outlook of China’s Fertilizer Market 2012/2013

February 2013 | 100 pages | ID: R578FE4E2E4EN
Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant Co., Ltd

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Research Background:

Influenced by tighter domestic macro-environment and insufficient demand in international market, fertilizer prices in China’s market declined after growth and maintained weak as a whole. On production, the output of fertilizer set another record high and passed 60 million tons in 2012, but the growth rate was lower than that in the last year, especially, the growth rate of potash fertilizer output, which has been increasing rapidly for years, dropped sharply. On domestic consumption, although some positive factors like comprehensive agricultural subsidies have promoted the consumption of fertilizer, it kept weak throughout under the adverse impact of lower cost-benefit of farm produce and higher fertilizer prices in the first half of 2012. On export, tightening export tariff policy and weak demand in international market led China’s fertilizer export down overall in 2012.

So, the oversupply situation of fertilizer market in this year became serious increasingly and was the key reason for declining fertilizer price in the second half of this year. Although the production cost of fertilizer increased slightly and even showed falling trend, the dropping fertilizer price made the profitability of fertilizer enterprises compressed obviously. Under the pressure of sluggish growth in fertilizer market, industrial restructuring and mergers and reorganization in the industry were conducted further, the number of enterprises continued to decrease. At the same time, fertilizer production equipments and technological level have been improved obviously, coal-water slurry gasification technology, powdered coal pressure gasification technology, large sulfur-based compound fertilizer technology and beneficiation technology of mid-low grade phosphorite started to be used widely and have achieved good benefit. In addition, new fertilizer products represented by slow controlled release fertilizer, microbial fertilizer and etc. developed fast, and its market expansion rate was much higher than the average level of fertilizer industry.

In 2013, China's economy will increase at a low growth rate in a downturn. On the one hand, the risk of economic downturn still exists, so the government need adopt various measures to maintain a higher growth rate; on the other hand, structural adjustment and growth pattern transformation are urgently required. Against this background, both positive factors and negative factors for fertilizer market will show growth trend, which includes:

On the one hand, government’s support to agricultural production is expected to be strengthened continuously, which includes increasing agricultural investment and subsidy and raising minimum purchasing price of farm produce, so then a better requirement space for fertilizer industry will be built; China’s grain output has been increasing for nine years in a row in 2012, which is conducive to supporting fertilizer consumption scale to remain high in next year; the concentration of fertilizer industry is improving steadily, the influence and control ability of key enterprises on market have increased, which is conducive to weaken market volatility. On the other hand, China’s fertilizer faces excess capacity, the current situation of oversupply is hard to relieve; price mechanism reform process of main fertilizer raw materials (such as coal, natural gas, Sulfur phosphate ore, etc.) is expected to be accelerated, which will have upward pressure on fertilizer production cost; tightening export tariff policy for a long term and weak external economical situation seriously limit the operation and expansion of fertilizer enterprises in international market; etc.

The interaction of above positive and negative factors will make fertilizer market showing a complicated situation in 2013, the overall growth rate of this industry will slow down continuously, the internal adjustment will be accelerated, and the market will fluctuate violently. The transformation of China’s fertilizer industry from quantitative growth pattern to qualitative growth pattern is irreversible, the centralization of production, high-end orientated product, service orientated marketing and market oriented raw materials have become the main development direction of fertilizer market.

On the basis of an overall analysis and review of China’s fertilizer market in 2012, and combining the national economy situation and the policy change, BOABC will make an in-depth analysis of the trend of China’s fertilizer market in 2013 and provide a clear judgment for people at home and abroad who focus on China’s fertilizer market as a reference for their decision-making.
CHAPTER I MACRO-ECONOMY AND DEVELOPMENT OF FERTILIZER INDUSTRY

1.1 Macro-economic Condition and Fertilizer Industry Planning
  1.1.1 Macro-economic Conditions in 2012 and the Prospect of Development Trend in 2013
  1.1.2 Implementation and Completion of Main Objectives of National Economy Planning
  1.1.3 Implementation and Completion of Main Objectives of Agricultural Development Planning
  1.1.4 Implementation and Completion of Main Objectives of Chemical Industry
  1.1.5 Implementation and Completion of Main Objectives of Fertilizer Industry
1.2 Changes of Agricultural Policies and Its Impact on Fertilizer Industry
  1.2.1 Impact of Agricultural Product Procurement Policy on Fertilizer Demand
  1.2.2 Impact of Agricultural Subsidy Policy on Fertilizer Demand
  1.2.3 Impact of Other Agricultural Policies on Fertilizer Industry
1.3 Impact of Resource Policies and Resource Industry Development on Fertilizer Production
  1.3.1 Impact of Coal Price Marketization on Fertilizer Production
  1.3.2 Impact of Natural Gas Marketization Process on Fertilizer Production
  1.3.3 Change of Mineral Resources Policies and Its Impact on Fertilizer Production
1.4 Impact of Oil Price Change on Fertilizer Logistics and Production Cost
1.5 Status Quo of Preferential Policies for Fertilizer Industry and Change Trend
1.6 Investment Situation of China’s Fertilizer Industry
  1.6.1 Investment Situation of Fertilizer Industry
  1.6.2 Investment Situation of Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry
  1.6.3 Investment Situation of Phosphate Fertilizer Industry
  1.6.4 Investment Situation of Potash Fertilizer Industry
  1.6.5 Investment Situation of Compound Fertilizer Industry
  1.6.6 Investment Situation of Organic Fertilizer Industry
1.7 Analysis of the Competitiveness of Fertilizer Industry
  1.7.1 Analysis of the Overall Competitiveness of Fertilizer Industry
  1.7.2 Analysis of the Competitiveness of Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry
  1.7.3 Analysis of the Competitiveness of Phosphate Fertilizer Industry
  1.7.4 Analysis of the Competitiveness of Potash Fertilizer Industry
  1.7.5 Analysis of the Competitiveness of Compound Fertilizer Industry
  1.7.6 Analysis of the Competitiveness of Organic Fertilizer Industry
1.8 Change of Fertilizer Industry Structure
1.9 Analysis of Fertilizer Circulation
  1.9.1 Development of Diversification Pattern of Fertilizer Circulation System
  1.9.2 Development Situation of Agricultural Chain Operation
  1.9.3 Construction of Domestic Marketing Network of Sinofert Holding Limited
  1.9.4 Construction of Marketing Network of Sino-agri Group

CHAPTER II REVIEW AND PROSPECT OF FERTILIZER MARKET IN 2012-2013

2.1 Review of Fertilizer Market in 2012
  2.1.1 Analysis of the Prosperity of Fertilizer Industry in 2012
  2.1.2 Analysis of Fertilizer Market Trend in 2012
  2.1.3 Impact of International Fertilizer Market on China’s Fertilizer Market in 2012
  2.1.4 Impact of Export Tariff Policy Change on Fertilizer Market in 2012
  2.1.5 Impact of Soil Testing and Formulated Fertilization Project on Fertilizer Market in 2012
  2.1.6 Analysis of Fertilizer-Input/Grain-Output of Crop Cultivation Industry in 2012
  2.1.7 Fertilizer Production in 2012
  2.1.8 Import and Export of Fertilizer in 2012
  2.1.9 Fertilizer Consumption in 2012
  2.1.10 Price Trend in Fertilizer Market in 2012
2.2 Prospect of Fertilizer Market in 2013
  2.2.1Prediction of Fertilizer Market Trend in 2013
  2.2.2 Prediction of Input/Output of Crop Cultivation in 2013
  2.2.3 Import Quotas and Import Agents of Fertilizer in2013
  2.2.4 Prospect of the Changes of Import & Export Tax Rate in 2013 and Its Impact on Fertilizer Market
  2.2.5 Trend of Policy for Fertilizer Market in 2013
    2.2.5.1 Industry and Investment Policy
    2.2.5.2 Taxation and Subsidy Policy
    2.2.5.3 Policy for Reserve in Slack Season
    2.2.5.4 Policy for Industry Access
  2.2.6 Prediction of Fertilizer Output in 2013
  2.2.7 Prediction of Fertilizer Export & Import in 2013
  2.2.8 Prediction of Fertilizer Consumption in 2013

CHAPTER III REVIEW AND PROSPECT OF NITROGEN FERTILIZER MARKET IN 2012-2013

3.1 Review of Nitrogen Fertilizer Market in 2012
  3.1.1 Analysis of Prosperity of Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry in 2012
  3.1.2 Cost and Profit of Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry in 2012
  3.1.3 Analysis of Nitrogen Fertilizer Market in 2012
  3.1.4 Output of Nitrogen Fertilizer in 2012
  3.1.5 Import & Export of Nitrogen Fertilizer in 2012
  3.1.6 Consumption of Nitrogen Fertilizer in 2012
  3.1.7 Review of Urea Market in 2012
    3.1.7.1 Analysis of China’s Urea Market in 2012
    3.1.7.2 Output of Urea in 2012
    3.1.7.3 Consumption of Urea in 2012
    3.1.7.4 Impact of Urea Price/ Grain Price on Urea Consumption
    3.1.7.5 Price Trend of Urea in 2012
    3.1.7.6 Position of Urea in Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Structure
  3.1.8 Review of ABC Market in 2012
    3.1.8.1 Output of ABC in 2012
    3.1.8.2 Consumption of ABC in 2012
    3.1.8.3 Price Trend of ABC in 2012
  3.1.9 Other Nitrogen Fertilizer Market
3.2 Prospect of Nitrogen Fertilizer Market in 2013
  3.2.1 Growth Potential of Nitrogen Fertilizer Production Capacity in 2013
  3.2.2 Prediction of Nitrogen Fertilizer Market Trend in 2013
  3.2.3 Prediction of Urea Market Trend in 2013
  3.2.4 Impact of Export Tariff Adjustment on Urea Market in 2013
  3.2.5 Change Trend of Urea Production Distribution
  3.2.6 Prediction of Nitrogen Fertilizer Output in 2013
  3.2.7 Prediction of Nitrogen Fertilizer Import & Export in 2013
  3.2.8 Prediction of Nitrogen Fertilizer Consumption in 2013

CHAPTER IV REVIEW AND PROSPECT OF PHOSPHATE FERTILIZER MARKET IN 2012-2013

4.1 Review of Phosphate Fertilizer Market in 2012
  4.1.1 Analysis of Prosperity of Phosphate Fertilizer Industry in 2012
  4.1.2 Cost and Profit of Phosphate Fertilizer Industry in 2012
  4.1.3 Output of Phosphate Fertilizer in 2012 and Degree of Industrial Concentration
  4.1.4 Import & Export of Phosphate Fertilizer in 2012
  4.1.5 Consumption of Phosphate Fertilizer in 2012
  4.1.6 Price Trend of Phosphate Fertilizer in 2012
4.2 Prospect of Phosphate Fertilizer Market in 2013
  4.2.1 Growth Potential of Phosphate Fertilizer Production Capacity in 2013
  4.2.2 Prediction of Supply of Sulfur and Phosphorus as Raw Material in 2013
  4.2.3 Prediction of Phosphate Fertilizer Output in 2013
  4.2.4 Prediction of Phosphate Fertilizer Import & Export in 2013
  4.2.5 Prediction of Phosphate Fertilizer Consumption in 2013

CHAPTER V REVIEW AND PROSPECT OF POTASH FERTILIZER MARKET IN 2012-2013

5.1 Review of Potash Fertilizer Market in 2012
  5.1.1 Analysis of Prosperity of Potash Fertilizer Industry in 2012
  5.1.2 Cost and Profit of Potash Fertilizer Industry in 2012
  5.1.3 Construction Progress of Overseas Potash Fertilizer Project
  5.1.4 Analysis of Potash Fertilizer Market in 2012
  5.1.5 Output of Potash Fertilizer in 2012
  5.1.6 Import & Export of Potash Fertilizer in 2012
  5.1.7 Consumption of Potash Fertilizer in 2012
  5.1.8 Impact of Potash Fertilizer Price/Grain Price on Potash Fertilizer Consumption
  5.1.9 Price Trend of Potash Fertilizer in 2012
5.2 Prospect of Potash Fertilizer Market in 2013
  5.2.1 Analysis of Growth Potential of Potash Fertilizer Production Capacity and Self-Supply Ability in 2013
  5.2.2 Prediction of Potash Fertilizer Market Trend in 2013
  5.2.3 Prediction of Potash Fertilizer Output in 2013
  5.2.4 Prediction of Negotiation on Potash Fertilizer Import in 2013
  5.2.5 Prediction of Potash Fertilizer Import & Export in 2013
  5.2.6 Prediction of Potash Fertilizer Consumption in 2013

CHAPTER VI REVIEW AND PROSPECT OF COMPOUND FERTILIZER MARKET IN 2012-2013

6.1 Review of Compound Fertilizer Market in 2012
  6.1.1 Analysis of Prosperity of Compound Fertilizer Industry in 2012
  6.1.2 Cost and Profit of Compound Fertilizer Industry in 2012
  6.1.3 Analysis of Compound Fertilizer Market Trend in 2012
  6.1.4 Output of Compound Fertilizer in 2012
  6.1.5 Import & Export of Compound Fertilizer in 2012
  6.1.6 Consumption of Compound Fertilizer in 2012
  6.1.7 Impact of Compound Fertilizer Price/Grain Price on Compound Fertilizer Consumption
  6.1.8 Price Trend of NPK, DAP and MAP in 2012
  6.1.9 Degree of Industrial Concentration of NPK, DAP and MAP in 2012
6.2 Prospect of Compound Fertilizer Market in 2013
  6.2.1 Growth Potential of Compound Fertilizer Production Capacity in 2013
  6.2.2 Prediction of Compound Fertilizer Market Trend in 2013
  6.2.3 Impact of Export Tariff Change on Compound Fertilizer Market in 2013
  6.2.4 Prediction of Compound Fertilizer Output in 2013
  6.2.5 Prediction of Compound Fertilizer Import & Export in 2013
    6.2.5.1 Prediction of DAP and MAP Export in 2013
    6.2.5.2 Prediction of NPK Import & Export in 2013
  6.2.6 Prediction of Compound Fertilizer Consumption in 2013

CHAPTER VII REVIEW AND PROSPECT OF NEW FERTILIZERS IN 2012-2013

7.1 Review and Prospect of Slow Controlled Release Fertilizer Market in 2012-2013
  7.1.1 Capacity and Output of Slow Controlled Release Fertilizer in 2012
  7.1.2 Consumption of Slow Controlled Release Fertilizer in 2012
  7.1.3 Price Trend of Slow Controlled Release Fertilizer in 2012
  7.1.4 Analysis of Competitive Advantages and Market Risks of Slow Controlled Release Fertilizer
  7.1.5 Output Prediction of Slow Controlled Release Fertilizer in 2013
  7.1.6 Consumption Prediction of Slow Controlled Release Fertilizer in 2013
7.2 Review and Prospect of Microbial Fertilizer Market in 2012-2013
  7.2.1 Capacity and Output of Microbial Fertilizer in 2012
  7.2.2 Consumption of Microbial Fertilizer in 2012
  7.2.3 Price Trend of Microbial Fertilizer in 2012
  7.2.4 Analysis of Competitive Advantages and Market Risks of Microbial Fertilizer
  7.2.5 Output Prediction of Microbial Fertilizer in 2013
  7.2.6 Consumption Prediction of Microbial Fertilizer in 2013

CHAPTER VIII REVIEW AND PROSPECT OF RELEVANT INDUSTRIES IN 2012-2013

8.1 Review and Prospect of Synthetic Ammonia Market in 2012-2013
  8.1.1 Supply of Coal and Natural Gas in 2012
  8.1.2 Output of Synthetic Ammonia in 2012
  8.1.3 Import & Export of Synthetic Ammoniain 2012
  8.1.4 Price Trend of Synthetic Ammonia in 2012
  8.1.5 Prediction of Synthetic Ammonia Output in 2013
  8.1.6 Prediction of Synthetic Ammonia Import & Export in 2013
8.2 Review and Prospect of Phosphate Rock Market in 2012-2013
  8.2.1 Analysis of Phosphate Rock Supply in China
  8.2.2 Output of Phosphate Rock in 2012
  8.2.3 Import & Export of Phosphate Rock in 2012
  8.2.4 Price Trend of Phosphate Rock in 2012
  8.2.5 Prediction of Phosphate Rock Output in 2013
  8.2.6 Prediction of Phosphate Rock Import & Export in 2013
8.3 Review and Prospect of Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid Market in 2012-2013
  8.3.1 Analysis of Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid Supply
  8.3.2 Output of Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid in 2012
  8.3.3 Output of Pyrite in 2012
  8.3.4 Import & Export of Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid in 2012
  8.3.5 Price Trend of Sulfur, Sulfuric Acid and Pyrite in 2012
  8.3.6 Prediction of Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid Output in 2013
  8.3.7 Prediction of Pyrite Output in 2013
  8.3.8 Prediction of Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid Import in 2013
8.4 Review and Prospect of Phosphoric Acid Market in 2012-2013
  8.4.1 Output of Phosphoric Acid in 2012
  8.4.2 Import of Phosphoric Acid in 2012
  8.4.3 Prediction of Phosphoric Acid Output in 2013
  8.4.4 Prediction of Phosphoric Acid in Import in 2013

APPENDIX STATISTICAL TABLES

Statistical Tables of Fertilizer
Table 1, Balance Sheet of Fertilizer, 2009-2013
Table 2, Major Imported Fertilizer Products, 2008-2012
Table 3, Major Exported Fertilizer Products, 2008-2012
Table 4, Output of Fertilizer, 2008-2012
Table 5, Consumption of Fertilizer, 2008-2012
Statistical Tables of Nitrogen Fertilizer
Table 6, Balance Sheet of Nitrogen Fertilizer, 2009-2013
Table 7, Balance Sheet of Urea, 2009-2013
Table 8, Output of Nitrogen Fertilizer by Varieties, 2008-2012
Table 9, Output of Nitrogen Fertilizer by Provinces, 2008-2012
Table 10, Consumption of Nitrogen Fertilizer by Provinces, 2008-2012
Table 11, Export of Urea by Nations, 2008-2012
Table 12, Export of Urea by Customs, 2008-2012
Table 13, Export of Urea by Provinces, 2008-2012
Table 14, Export of Ammonium Sulfate by Nations, 2008-2012
Table 15, Export of Ammonium Chloride by Nations, 2008-2012
Table 16, Export of Ammonium Nitrate by Nations, 2008-2012
Statistical Tables of Phosphate Fertilizer
Table 17, Balance Sheet of Phosphate Fertilizer, 2009-2013
Table 18, Output of Phosphate Fertilizer by Varieties, 2008-2012
Table 19, Output of Phosphate Fertilizer by Provinces, 2008-2012
Table 20, Consumption of Phosphate Fertilizer by Provinces, 2008-2012
Table 21, Export of Superphosphate by Nations, 2008-2012
Table 22, Export of Triple Superphosphate by Nations, 2008-2012
Statistical Tables of Potash Fertilizer
Table 23, Balance Sheet of Potash Fertilizer, 2009-2013
Table 24, Output of Potash Fertilizer by Varieties, 2008-2012
Table 25, Output of Potash Fertilizer by Provinces, 2008-2012
Table 26, Consumption of Potash Fertilizer by Provinces, 2008-2012
Table 27, Import of Potassium Chlorideby Nations, 2008-2012
Table 28, Export of Potassium Chloride by Nations, 2008-2012
Table 29, Import of Potassium Chloride by Customs, 2008-2012
Table 30, Export of Potassium Chloride by Customs, 2008-2012
Table 31, Import of Potassium Chloride by Provinces, 2008-2012
Table 32, Import of Potassium Sulfate by Nations, 2008-2012
Table 33, Export of Potassium Sulfate by Nations, 2008-2012
Table 34, Import of Potassium Sulfate by Customs, 2008-2012
Table 35, Export of Potassium Sulfate by Customs, 2008-2012
Table 36, Import of Potassium Sulfate by Provinces, 2008-2012
Statistical Tables of Compound Fertilizer
Table 37, Balance Sheet of Compound Fertilizer, 2009-2013
Table 38, Balance Sheet of NPK, 2009-2013
Table 39, Balance Sheet of DAP, 2009-2013
Table 40, Output of Compound Fertilizer by Provinces, 2008-2012
Table 41, Consumption of Compound Fertilizer by Provinces, 2008-2012
Table 42, Import of NPK by Nations, 2008-2012
Table 43, Export of NPK by Nations, 2008-2012
Table 44, Import of NPK by Customs, 2008-2012
Table 45, Export of NPK by Customs, 2008-2012
Table 46, Import of NPK by Provinces, 2008-2012
Table 47, Import of DAP by Nations, 2008-2012
Table 48, Export of DAP by Nations, 2008-2012
Table 49, Import of DAP by Customs, 2008-2012
Table 50, Export of DAP by Customs, 2008-2012
Table 51, Import of DAP by Provinces, 2008-2012
Table 52, Export of DAP by Nations, 2008-2012
Statistical Tables of Relevant Products
Table 53, Major Fertilizer-related Products Imported, 2008-2012
Table 54, Export of Fertilizer-related Products, 2008-2012
Table 55, Output of Fertilizer-related Products, 2008-2012
Table 56, Output of Phosphate Rock by Provinces, 2008-2012
Table 57, Output of Sulphuric Acid by Provinces, 2008-2012
Table 58, Output of Pyrite by Provinces, 2008-2012
Table 59, Output of Synthetic Ammonia by Provinces, 2008-2012
Table 60, Export of Phosphate Rock by Nations, 2008-2012
Table 61, Export of Phosphate Rock by Customs, 2008-2012
Table 62, Import of Sulphuric by Nations, 2008-2012
Table 63, Import Sulphuric Acid by Customs, 2008-2012

APPENDIX KEY EVENTS IN FERTILIZER MARKET 2012


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