MP Advisors: Market Research Reports

Merck today announced the topline results from much awaited Vorapaxar clinical study in secondary prevention of heart attack and stroke (TRA-2P). Addition of Vorapaxar to standard ... TRA-2P with external experts to help better understand the profile of Vorapaxar in specific patient populations.

... visibility in sales growth and margin improvement, the stock simply awaits re-rating. Going forward, earnings will be driven by (1) domestic market ... and FY13 earnings by 5-6%. At current valuation, IPCA trades at a PE of 10x on FY13 earnings. This makes IPCA the cheapest stock available with a sustainable ...

Roche 2012 guidance for high single digit EPS growth is below ... . When most peer group companies are struggling to generate growth, Roche has guided for high single digit growth, which the ...

... , ROG and Curis jointly announced that the USFDA approved once daily Erivedge, oral, first in class hedgehog inhibitor earlier than ... to be approved for this indication. Erivedge will be available in specialty pharmacies in US within one or two weeks. Roche has the marketing rights for Vismodegib excluding ...

... current marketed GLP-1’s. We forecast $3billion in peak sales for the Amylin’s GLP-1 franchise (Byetta, Bydureon and once monthly exenatide suspension ... is expected to reach the market beyond 2013, and will help Amylin further build its dominance in the GLP-1 space.

... . We have always maintained that the Pfizer-Biocon deal is at best a cash neutral deal for Biocon. This is due to the development expenses (including ...

... in previous studies. The positive data gives teeth to Avastin to further significantly increase its penetration in the colorectal ... which were studied post progression, those with avastin therapy, lived the longest (19.2 mo – avastin therapy post progression, vs 9.5 m – chemotherapy post progression vs 3.6 ...

Post today’s announcement of 4Q-11 results, we reiterate our underperform rating on BMY with a PT of $26. The 2012 EPS guidance range of $1.9 - $2.0 is ... reflective of the towering pressures, while valuation continues to remain soaring. BMY holds a promising HCV pipeline, but seems priced to perfection. Yeryoy ...

We have initiated coverage on Halozyme (HALO) after analyzing its risk reward opportunity. At first flush ... details, please read our report released on 27th January, 2012 on Halozyme titled “Offers Convenience Benefit but Commercial Success Uncertain”

... multiple years. In addition, there is a strong likelihood that Lupin may remain the only generic player for some time – something that we have ... for Suprax from FY13 to FY14 and (2) estimating $40m from generic Tricor in FY14 (to be launched in Q4 FY13). We upgrade our target price to Rs.463 by applying ...

For the fourth quarter 2011, in line with our expectations, NVS Sales grew 5%, and core EPS advanced 8%. NVS also announced full year dividend for 2011 at CHF 2.25, which translates into a meager 2%, increase, which we think is a dampener. The 2012 guidance as well was lackluster as NVS expects net sales in ...

Daiichi Sankyo’s announced its approval of first antibody Ranmark (denosumab, fully human anti-RANKL antibody, in-licensed from ... multiple myeloma and bone metastases from solid tumors in Japan. Approval was based on global clinical studies where it not ... generate overall sales (incl. AZN) of ¥70b by 2015 in Japan.

Positive PhII data of Tivantinib (formerly ARQ-197, c-MET inhibitor) in ... raises expectations and the efficacy bar for Tivantinib. We remain positive on an approval of Tivantinib in its lead indication – NSCLC ... read our report released on 19th January, 2012 on ArQule titled “Positive Data in HCC is an Add-On!”

Today BMY and AstraZeneca jointly announced the receipt of complete response letter from FDA for its first-in-class Dapagliflozin ( ...

... and Avastin (off-label), Regeneron (REGN) overwhelmed all concerns of a “weak launch” of Eylea (VEGF Trap-Eye, L, ... Bill” model! Uptake at this pace should entitle Eylea to capture…. Moreover, CEO’s optimism around REGN’s ... released on 11th January, 2012 on Regeneron titled “Eylea Sales Add a Sparkle to The Eye!”

... regulatory hurdles for NDAs has deprived Astellas from VIBATIV’s commercial attractiveness that led to the termination of the deal. For Theravance, time only ...

... details, please read our report released on 10th January, 2012 on HCV_M&A titled “Mirror, Mirror on the Wall (HCV) – Who is the Fairest of them all ...

... Relovair and their intention to file Relovair globally for COPD (100/25 mcg dose) and in Europe ... for Asthma indications by mid-2012. The announced data shows that on efficacy, Relovair ... 16000 patients to prospectively evaluate the effect of Relovair compared with placebo on survival in COPD patients ...

Regeneron (REGN) settled its patent litigation with Genentech (Roche) over Eylea (VEGF Trap-Eye, L, partnered ... payments to Roche -$60m when cumulative US sales of Eylea reach $400m + will pay royalties of 4.75% on ... 6th January, 2012 on Regeneron titled “Eylea’s Litigation Settlement = Good Start to 2012!”

... their long term outlook. Roche is our top pick for 2012 as double digit EPS ... Dalcetrapib, Vismodegib) will drive stock price outperformance in 2012. Our second top pick is GlaxoSmithKline, which ... we have upgraded to outperform from market perform for 2012. Our change in recommendation on GSK is based on ...

Data from TIVO-1, PhIII study (head-to-head study with ONXX’s Nexavar) of Tivozanib (formerly AV- ... details, please read our report released on 4th January, 2012 on AVEO pharma titled “PhIII, TIVO-1 Data and Reaction - No Surprise!”

... strategic and long term investment decision making of senior management. Outlook-11’ has been tailored to deliver more meaningfully in the ... for the future, and their key milestones. The Global Pharmaceutical Model is changing. Major pharmaceutical companies continue to under-perform in a market constrained ...

Para IV Plus is a knowledge bank of ongoing pharma patent litigations covered in the most comprehensive manner. Currently it covers ~400 product patent litigations – i.e. ALL the patent litigations involving global as well as non global innovator companies.

... as 2 of its major focus markets are witnessing high growth, viz. India and US generics. We anticipate the Indian market (branded generics) to grow ... other side, we expect the Para IV driven growth opportunities to peak in CY 2012 as we enter a year with highest no. of patent expiries in US. This offers an ...

... continue to flow from the backyards of small research focused companies (Rising stars, RS) but commercial success of launched products is not assured despite patents ... Micromet (MITI) are our Top Picks for FY2012 in the Rising Stars Sector. Key drugs of ANTH and MITI target high unmet ...

... ’ in 2011! We expect a similar trend of acquisitions and in-licensing of better molecules in 2012 and beyond, as MB companies have robust cash flow to further leverage ... Gilead (GILD) are our Top Picks for FY2012 in the Mature Biotech Sector. BIIB’s focus and leadership in the MS market and positive ...

‘Japanese Pharma Top & Bottom Picks’. Our analysis suggests that 2012 is going to be a happening year for Japan Pharma on multiple fronts – while next layer of reform ... largely supporting generic companies, select innovators from Japan hold value in term of their R&D. 2012 will unfold much of this value and ...

... the termination of large PhIII study (ALTITUDE) due to higher rate of adverse events and no benefits observed for patients taking Tekturna in addition to ACE ... inhibitors. Post this announcement, NVS will cease promotion of Tekturna/Tekturna products in combination with ACE inhibitors/ARB inhibitors. The event ...

... which enrolled approximately 1083 patients. The 24 m data showed that Gilenya (0.5 mg) had significantly reduced the annualized relapse rate by 48% than ... . The complete data is expected ........... ~80% of neurologists are now prescribing Gilenya, which was improved from 65% reported six months after launch ...

... . Most glaring is the Fortmet case, where Lupin launched the product ‘at-risk’ and later withdrew ... settled with Lupin it cannot launch its generic version (unless ‘at-risk’) thereby leading to a loss of this ... shared 180-day exclusivity for Lupin. These add to the pressure ...

Recent news about “possible acquisition of Onyx pharma” is not a surprise in light of the upcoming ... over Regorafenib (BAY73-4506, PhIII) with Bayer. Onyx product pipeline focuses only in oncology. We have ... released on 30th November, 2011 on Onyx pharma titled “M&A Rumors Fuel Investors Interest and Stock ...

... philosophy to pursue “innovation” in a balanced way should keep shareholders interested in AMGN for long term. PhIII data from study ‘147 published ... more detail, please read our report released on 25th November on AMGN titled “AMGN - Old is Gold = Value Buy!”

... in 2014, would result in declining sales for INCIVEK/IFN combination. Vertex (VRTX) next target is to capture the HCV/HIV co-infected patients ... read our report released on 25th November, 2011 on VRTX titled “Testing Time Ahead for INCIVEK - After 2013!”

... , please read our report released on 22nd November on GLPG titled “Waiting for Santa”!

Gilead (GILD) now has the one of the Best portfolio of Polymerase ... , please read our report released on 22nd November on GILD titled “Positioned to Repeat HIV Feat in HCV – Albeit at a High Price!”

... the needed competitive edge. In top line data there is no mention about the skin related adverse events, which if albiglutide is able to avoid, it would ... . We await the detailed data which will be announced at upcoming diabetes conference (Table 2). Table 3 compares Albiglutide with other late stage GLP ...

... designate AMR101 as a NCE, it will have… For more details, please read our report released on Nov. 16th, 2011 on AMRN titled “NCE vs. “Me-Too”- 3 or 5 years ...

... read our report released on 16th November on MVIR titled “Too Many Cooks -Likely to Steal the Show”

Pharmasset (VRUS) may enjoy the first mover advantage in the race to offer the first “IFN free all oral option” to HCV pts. However the window ... read our report released on Nov. 16th, 2011 on VRUS titled “IFN-free Oral Option” for HCV- Sharing the Big Pie!

Sun’s Q2 FY12 result was much higher than our and street’s ... after acquisition of 100% stake. We thus rate Sun Pharma as our top pick in the large cap India pharma. We will change our estimate later to incorporate ...

Robust mortality benefit demonstrated by Xarelto in ACS patients, though at the cost of higher major TIMI bleeds (but less fatal bleeds), warrants an ... concomitant Atrial Fibrillation (~ 3-10% of the ACS patients). We forecast $XX in peak sales for Xarelto in ACS and $XX across all indications (DVT treatment ...

... alert on Sanofi, after today’s announcement of superior clinical data on Lemtrada from CARE MS II (The Comparison of Alemtuzumab and Rebif Efficacy in ... Sclerosis) study. A cross trial comparisons (Table 1) suggest that Lemtrada should dominate as the most efficacious treatment option, and Ocrelizumab ...

Cadila’s Q2 FY12 result was below our estimate (adjusted to ... for muted growth in markets like India and Emerging Markets, we believe that the growth is still impacted due to the high ... the markets. We thus do not see any structural issues with Cadila. In addition, USFDA approval of its Baddi facility comes as a ...

Dishman once again reported quarterly result much below our and ... . Thus debt repayment can happened only through asset sale. We revise our FY 12 earnings estimates down by 28%. Consequently we cut our target price ...

FDA has accepted NDA of mirabegron (first in class β3-AR agonist, overactive bladder ... over the fate of this important candidate for Astellas whose aim is to maintain its leadership in ... and reach the market on time. We are expecting, mirabegron will be targeted 30% of patients on antimuscarinic therapy who ...

We reiterate our Market Perform rating on Ranbaxy after Q3 CY11 result that was largely in line with our ... the low base of EBITDA margin, the improvement was expected to be slightly higher especially as Ranbaxy has shut down most of its loss making ...

Aurobindo’s Q2 FY12 result was much below our expectations with almost complete washout on every parameter. While formulation sales, income from dossier, gross ...

... on Lupin after its Q2FY12 result that was largely in line with our estimates. Ex-Medicis milestone income, sales growth (up 17%) and gross margin ... of one per quarter and (3) Suprax growing by 43% Y-o-Y. We believe all these highlights (1) the dependence on generic Lotrel (2) increased sales force expense for ...

In Towa’s MTP announcement, it has projected single digit revenue growth and assumed there will not be any ‘New Major Reform’ by Govt to enhance ... in dispensing fee and incentives to doctors will boost Towa’s revenue (as 90%+ its revenue from these two segments), 2) Towa management is taking the right decision ...

... to the advanced anti-TNF (Ozoralizumab, ATN-103, PhIIb, RA) nanobody program to Ablynx (ABLX) has shaken investor’s confidence in the company. Outcome of the ... collaborations with major pharma companies for its technology platform. Ablynx is currently trading close to its cash value and could be a good ...