Aviation Industry to Face Hard Time Replacing Crude Oil Fuel with More Ecological Substitutes
17 Feb 2011 • by Natalie Aster
LONDON – The world’s airlines carry around 2.3 billion passengers and 38 million tonnes of freight on scheduled services, representing more than 531 billion tonne kilometres combined. Global aircraft fuel consumption is expected to increase at a rate of between 3.0% and 3.5% per year.
Most aviation fuels are originating from crude oil. A post Kyoto political agenda to reduce oil consumption will have the same effect on aviation fuel production as a natural decline in the crude oil production. On the other hand, it is predicted by the aviation industry that aviation traffic will keep on increasing.
The industry has put ambitious goals on increases in fuel efficiency for the aviation fleet. Traffic is predicted to grow by 5% per year to 2026, world fuel demand by about 3% per year. At the same time aviation fuel production is predicted to decrease by several per cent each year after the crude oil production peak is reached resulting in a substantial shortage of aviation fuel by 2026. The aviation industry will have a hard time replacing this with fuel from other sources, even if air traffic remains at current levels.
Passenger traffic is expected to grow at an average rate of 4.8% per year through the year 2036. The demand for travel is on the rise, which disagrees with the environmental standards set by ICAO and the investments in technology and improved operational procedures that allow aviation’s noise, local air quality, and CO2 footprints to grow at a rate much slower than the demand for air travel.
More information on aircraft fuel market may be found in the report Aviation Fuel Market Research recently published by The Market Publishers, Ltd.
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