Emerging Market Construction To Double By 202026 Nov 2010 • by Natalie Aster
A recent report on the future of the global construction industry brings some good news for the polyurethane industry. Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics estimate that the value of construction in emerging countries will more than double in the next 11 years according to their recently published report "Global Construction 2020". Global output is expected to increase a huge 70 % overall, with mature countries' output rising by 35 %, compared to 110 % rise forecast in the emerging markets.
According to the report, the world construction market will be worth USD 12.7 trillion in 2020, compared to USD 7.5 trillion today. The steeper growth of emerging countries will ultimately lead to their domination of the global market by the end of 2020, with an output of USD 7 trillion, representing 55 % of the total forecast value. In contrast, today's mature markets are expected to grown from USD 4.2 trillion in 2009 to USD 5.7 trillion by 2020.
The key driver to this emerging market growth is expected to be infrastructure construction, which the report says will grow by 128 % over the next decade. At the same time, non-residential construction in emerging markets is expected to double.
As a result of this growth China is expected to overtake the USA as the world's largest construction market as early as 2018. By 2020 the Chinese construction market is expected to be worth USD 2.5 trillion, representing a staggering 19.1 % of the global total. Elsewhere in Asia, Japan is expected to show the weakest growth of all major markets over the next decade. Back in 2003 the country was overtaken by China as the world's second largest construction market. By the middle of the next decade Japan is expected to see it lose its position as the world's third largest construction market as India rises in importance.
Despite slower growth in developed world construction markets, there are expected to be some bright spots, notably in North America, with the US market forecast for a strong housing-led rebound from 2011 to 2013.
Europe is expected to show weak growth, with the United Kingdom and Greece leading the way, and countries like Spain, Italy and France trailing behind during the next few years. In contrast, East European countries are expected to demonstrate the strongest growth prospects, with up to 100 % increase in construction output forecast over the next decade. Between now and 2020, Poland is forecast to be one of the ten fastest growing construction markets in the world, with Russia also showing great potential.
Along with Poland, Russia and China; India, Nigeria and Vietnam are expected to be the fastest growing construction markets over the next 11 years.
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