New January 2012 Market Research Reports by Signals and Systems Telecom27 Jan 2012 • by Natalie Aster
Capitalizing on LTE Mobile Broaband: Strategies, Risk and Potential Revenues. This report presents an independent analysis of capitalizing on Long-Term Evolution (LTE) technology for mobile broadband, including potential revenues, strategies and risk. The report begins by presenting an overview of LTE technology, system performance, cost of deployment estimation, an overview of LTE infrastructure/device vendors and a detailed assessment of latest LTE mobile broadband service data plans as of January 2012 among leading LTE operators. The report then presents an in-depth assessment of strategy for LTE operators and device manufacturers for the next 5 years. The report then presents an analysis of LTE revenue and cash flow for the largest LTE operator in the world today - Verizon Wireless, from 2011 till 2021. The analysis is based on a novel simulation model that estimates projected cash flow based on operator and analyst input on LTE subscribers’ growth, ARPU, types of revenues and the cost of capital. Results of the assessment indicate that incumbent 2G/3G operators such as Verzion Wireless will start seeing profitable LTE revenues within 5 to 7 years after LTE service launch. Verizon Wireless, in particular, will witness the start of its CAPEX recovery in 2018, from large scale CAPEX investments on its LTE footprint which are expected to reach 22 Billion USD. The report concludes by presenting a risk assessment analysis for LTE operators.
US Telecom Industry Assessment & Forecasts 2011 - 2020. The US Telecom industry is a complex business with numerous segments, which has undergone strong growth over the past ten years. Recent history has manifested significant change with extensive mergers and a rapid flow of technologies supporting faster speeds, broader coverage and expanded market penetration. The next ten years are going to bring with it even more change and challenges. New technologies such as LTE are crowding out old and the industry matures as it approaches maximum market penetration. Repeating the strong growth of the past ten years will be a challenge as mergers yield higher consolidation and concentration of players. Nevertheless, the rapid flow of new technologies and change will continue to grow opportunities and present a stable of opportunities through innovation.
Revenues across all segments within the industry presently total almost $750 billion and are expected to grow about +3.9% per year through the year 2020 to reach almost $1.2 trillion in revenue. As penetration of a number of Telecom categories reaches over 90%, growth over the next ten years is likely to slow to half the rate of the previous ten years; but the business should add $40 billion per year for the next ten years. The “US Telecom Industry Assessment & Forecasts 2011 – 2020” report presents a comprehensive assessment of the industry including financial performance, revenues, subscriptions, market share and key trends for each individual sector.
2G, 3G & 4G Cellular Network Subscriptions Database Q1’2012. With 6.1 billion global cellular network subscriptions, the year 2011 has seen mobile penetration levels reach over 87 %. From an operator perspective, China Mobile is leading the market with over 650 million subscriptions. Indian operators (primarily Bharti, Vodafone, Reliance, Idea Cellular, BSNL etc) also constitute a considerable market share with over 928 million subscriptions. Mobile broadband has also seen considerable growth with 3.5 G HSPA subscriptions reaching 566 million, EV-DO subscriptions reaching 272 million, and 4G LTE subscriptions reaching 6.4 million. LTE subscriptions that currently comprise only 0.1 % of the market will significantly grow over the next 5 years, eventually representing more than 8 % of the market in 2016. Presently, U.S operator Verizon Wireless and Japanese operator NTT DoCoMo are leading the LTE market with market shares of 63 % and 22 % respectively, driven by their early adoption of LTE technology.
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