United Arab Emirates Telecommunications Report Q3 2012

Date: July 3, 2012
Pages: 87
US$ 1,175.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI’s Q312 update to the UAE’s telecommunications market report incorporates market data from the Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRA) and telecoms providers Etisalat and Emirates Integrated Telecommunication Company (du) relating to the end of March 2012. It contains an analysis of the mobile, fixed-line and broadband markets, and recent regulatory developments. It also contains our growth estimates for the key sectors during our forecast period, through to 2016.

Perhaps the most notable new development since our last report is the launch of commercial LTE network services by second-ranked du in June 2012. The operator reports the service is capable of speeds of 150Mbps, although existing devices can only support transmission of 100Mbps. The launch follows that of rival Etisalat, which launched LTE services in 2011. du has launched the service using 1,800MHz spectrum, in contrast to the more commonly used 800MHz or 2.6GHz bands.

According to the TRA, there were 12.367mn mobile subscribers in the UAE at the end of March 2012.

This is growth of 5.5% q-o-q, significantly higher than average quarterly growth of 1.8% during 2012. The market recorded net additions of 640,000 subscribers in Q112, equivalent of around 80% of the total net additions of 801,000 recorded in the 12 months to December 2011. Despite the UAE’s relatively high mobile penetration rate, we forecast positive growth in the mobile market over the next five years. We forecast an overall growth of 9.5% during 2012 and average growth of 2.2% for the five years to 2016.

This will bring the mobile subscriber base to around 14mn subscribers, a penetration rate of 165%. We note that the fixed-line market will experience upside pressure from increased competition between Etisalat and du due to the implementation of carrier pre-selection services. However, this will be counterbalanced by increasing fixed to mobile substitution, which we expect to intensify with the roll-out of next generation mobile broadband technologies. We expect fixed-line penetration in the UAE to reach 22.9% at the end of 2012. We also expect positive growth for the remainder of our forecast period, although faster population growth based on BMI data means fixed-line penetration rates are expected to decline from 2012. By 2016, we expect the market to have around 1.908mn fixed-line connections, reflecting a penetration rate of 22.4%.

During Q112, TRA reported a sharp fall in the number of dial-up internet subscriptions. This consequently reduced the total number of internet subscriptions from around 1.3mn at the end of December 2011 to fewer than 960,000 by March 2012. However, we have not changed our internet usage or broadband forecasts as there was no commensurate increase in the number of broadband subscriptions following the contraction of the dial-up segment. We expect the broadband market to grow by 9.5% in 2012 to reach a penetration rate of 11.8%. By the end of 2016, we expect the UAE to have a broadband penetration rate of about 13.8%.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
UAE Wireline SWOT
UAE Political SWOT
UAE Economic SWOT
UAE Business Environment SWOT
Risk/Rewards Ratings
Middle East And North Africa
  Table: MENA Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312
Industry Forecast Scenario
  Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts
  Table: Monthly Blended ARPU
Fixed Line
  Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts
  Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts
Market Data Analysis
  Table: UAE – Mobile Subscribers, Q112
  Table: UAE – Mobile Net Additions Market, Q111-Q112 (’000)
Subscriber Divisions And ARPU
Mobile Contract Wins
  Table: Mobile Contract Wins
Mobile Operator Data
  Table: UAE Mobile Market Overview
  Table: Etisalat
  Table: du
Mobile Content
Regional Outlook
Country Outlook
Value-Added Services Timeline
  Table: Selected VAS Services
Fixed Line
Market Restrictions
Wireline Contract Wins
  Table: Wireline Contract Wins
Regulatory Environment And Industry Developments
  Table: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Legislation And Market Liberalisation
Carrier Pre-Selection
New Wireless Agency
Licensing And Spectrum
Regulatory Developments
Industry Developments
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
  Table: Key Players – UAE Telecoms Sector
  Table: UAE Financial Indicators (US$mn)
Company Monitor
  Table: Cisco Financial Performance By Theatre (US$mn), H1 FY12
Operator Profiles
Emirates Telecommunications Corporation (Etisalat)
Emirates Integrated Telecommunication Company (du)
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Fixed Line
  Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
  Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
  Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Demographic Outlook
  Table: United Arab Emirates' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
  Table: United Arab Emirates' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020
  Table: United Arab Emirates' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
  Table: United Arab Emirates' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Glossary Of Terms
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
  Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
  Table: Ratings Indicators
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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