South Africa Telecommunications Report Q4 2016

Date: August 10, 2016
Pages: 74
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We maintain a positive outlook for South Africa's mobile market and the country's telecoms sector. Subscription growth in the mobile market is driven by factors including operators' promotional activities, multiple SIM ownership and launch of advanced services. 3G and 4G services have strong uptake as well as a positive impact on non-voice service revenues, with all four carriers launching LTE-Advanced technology offerings. Further market consolidation is expected, with Liquid Telecoms' attempt to acquire fixed-line network operator Neotel likely to be approved.

Latest Updates & Industry Developments
  • The South African mobile subscriptions reached 90.17mn in Q116, up 8.6% y-o-y, with penetration reaching 164%. Vodacom and Cell C encountered positive customer growth in the first quarter of 2016. However, MTN experienced a decline of 511,000 customers.
  • The main source of future growth in the mobile market will be the development of 3G and 4G services, with the launch of LTE a clear signal that operators are preparing for intense competition based on the delivery of data services. We currently expect the number of 3G and 4G customers to rise to 47.7mn by the end of 2016, equivalent to 49.49% of the mobile subscriber base by the end of 2020. We forecast broadband subscriptions to increase from 8.44mn in 2016 to 9.08mn in 2020, equivalent to a penetration rate of 16.03%. Increasing competition and investment pose an upside risk to this forecast with more focused contribution to the broadband market by open access players to result in a medium-term surge of growth in the number of retail broadband subscriptions.
BMI Industry View
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
Industry Forecast
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2020)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q4 2016
South Africa Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Market Drivers & Trends
Wireline Voice & Broadband
  Table: Telkom Fixed Telephony Access Lines ('000)
  Table: Telkom Internet Subscriptions ('000)
Regulatory Development
  Table: National Broadband Policy Access Targets
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Key Players
Source: Operator data
  Table: Market Overview 2014-2015
  Table: Vodacom
  Table: MTN
  Table: Cell C
  Table: 8ta - Telkom South Africa
  Table: Virgin Mobile
Company Profile
Cell C
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
  Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025)
  Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025)
  Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025)
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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