Nigeria Telecoms Report Q1 2011

Date: January 22, 2011
Pages: 94
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

The latest figures from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) suggest Nigeria’s mobile customer base grew 12% in the first nine months of 2010 to reach almost 82mn at the end of September.

This resulted in a mobile penetration rate of 52%, up from more than 47% at the start of 2010. BMI estimates that at the end of 2010 Nigeria had more than 84.5mn mobile customers, equivalent to a penetration rate of 53.4%. Despite having a mobile penetration rate which is more than 50%, we believe the sector has a high incidence of multiple SIM ownership and a large number of inactive prepaid users. We believe one of the biggest challenges for the sector will be expanding network coverage to underserved areas. Meanwhile, although Nigeria’s mobile market still offers considerable scope for growth, we predict the introduction of SIM registration, as well as the introduction of number portability in 2011, will result in slower growth.

Our newly revised and extended forecast for Nigeria’s mobile sector envisages a market with almost 93mn subscribers at the end of 2011, reflecting full-year growth of about 9%. By the end of 2015 we expect more than 128mn mobile customers; equivalent to a penetration rate of almost 72%.

Noteworthy developments in Nigeria’s telecoms market include the news in December that Etisalat Nigeria became the most recent Nigerian operator to acquire a licence to provide 3G services. Etisalat acquired its licence through the purchase of start-up Alheri Mobile Services, a wholly owned subsidiary of local conglomerate Dangote Group. Alheri was awarded a 3G concession from the NCC in April 2007, alongside established operators Airtel Nigeria (then Celtel), Globacom and MTN Nigeria. Etisalat plans to spend US$50mn on 3G equipment out of a total investment of US$400mn for 2011. The operator will initially deploy its 3G network in Lagos, Port Harcourt and Abuja, with plans to expand coverage to other areas later in 2011.

It was also reported in December that New Generation Telecommunications, the consortium which emerged as the preferred buyer for state-owned incumbent operator Nitel in February 2010, had been given an extension to pay a US$750mn bid security for the ailing operator. Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathon approved the consortium’s bid of US$2.5bn for a 75% stake in Nitel and its mobile arm M-Tel in October 2010. The New Generation consortium comprises Minerva Group of Dubai, Nigeria’s GiCell Wireless and technical partner China Unicom.

Nigeria has risen to first position in BMI’s latest set of Business Environment Ratings for Sub-Saharan Africa. The rise in our rankings to pole position is the result of higher scores in the Industry Rewards and Country Risk categories.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Nigeria Mobile SWOT
Nigeria Fixed-Line And Broadband SWOT
Nigeria Political SWOT
Nigeria Economic SWOT
Nigeria Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Analysis
Sub-Saharan Africa
    Table: Regional Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Industry Forecast Scenario
    Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts
Fixed Line
    Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2015
    Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2015
Market Data Analysis
    Table: Nigeria Mobile Market, September 2010
    Table: Wireless Net Additions Market, Q310


Mobile Contract Wins
Table – Mobile Contract Wins
Mobile Content
Regional Outlook
Country Outlook
Mobile Operator Data
    Table: Nigeria Mobile Data
    Table: Starcomms & other CDMA operators
    Table: MTN
    Table: Globacom
    Table: Airtel (formerly Zain)
    Table: EMTS
Fixed Line
    Table: Nigeria Fixed-Line Data 2008-2009
Wireless Broadband
    Table: Fixed-Line And Broadband Contract Wins And Developments
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments
Industry Developments
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
    Table: Key Players – Nigeria Telecoms Sector
    Table: Selected Operators’ Financial Indicators, 2004-2009
Company Monitor
    Table: Cisco Financial Performance, 2007-2010 (US$ mn)
    Table: Cisco Systems Recent Contract Wins in Africa and the Middle East
Company Profiles
Airtel (formerly Zain)
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Fixed Line
    Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
    Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
    Table: Regional Internet Use Penetration Overview
Country Snapshot: Nigeria Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
    Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
    Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
    Table: Education, 2002-2005
    Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
    Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Glossary Of Terms
    Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
    Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
    Table: Ratings Indicators
    Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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