'Madagascar: Political Stability Provides Growth Opportunities for the Telecom Market,' a new Country Intelligence Report by Pyramid Research, offers a precise, incisive profile of Madagascar's mobile and fixed telecommunications markets based on comprehensive proprietary data and insights from our research in the Madagascan market. Published annually, this presentation-quality, executive-level report provides detailed analysis of the near-term opportunities, competitive dynamics and evolution of demand by service type and technology/platform across the fixed telephony, broadband and mobile sectors, in addition to a review of key regulatory trends.
- Pyramid Research expects to see overall service revenue grow at a CAGR of 6.8% between 2014 and 2019. The fixed/mobile revenue split will remain relatively unchanged over the forecast period, with the share of fixed services down by only 0.028 percentage points between 2014 and 2019. Improved international connectivity and capacity means that fixed prices are likely to be competitive with existing mobile broadband offers.
- Adoption of 3G technologies is a low percentage of the subscription base; we project this will grow significantly over the forecast period. LTE subscriptions are expected to reach 0.4m by 2019. We expect the uptake of LTE services to begin by 2016, by which time the regulatory framework and digital switchover should have been completed and new spectrum allocated.
- Over the next five years, operators should seize opportunities in attracting a greater number of subscribers by focusing on the underserved rural communities. Vendors should position themselves for continued network expansion, with an additional focus on the energy efficiency of towers and base stations as Madagascar's power supply remains unreliable.
“Madagascar: Political Stability Provides Growth Opportunities for the Telecom Market” provides an executive-level overview of the telecommunications market in Madagascar today, with detailed forecasts of key indicators up to 2019. It delivers deep quantitative and qualitative insight into Madagascar's telecom market, analyzing key trends, evaluating near-term opportunities and assessing risk factors, based on proprietary data from Pyramid Research's databases.
The Country Intelligence Report provides in-depth analysis of the following:
- Madagascar in a regional context; a review of market size and trends compared with other countries in the region.
- Economic, demographic and political context in Madagascar.
- The regulatory environment and trends; a review of the regulatory setting and agenda for the next 18-24 months as well as relevant developments pertaining to spectrum licensing, national broadband plans, number portability and more.
- A demand profile; analysis as well as forecasts and historical figures of service revenue from fixed telephony (including VoIP), broadband, mobile voice and data.
- The service evolution; a look at the change in the breakdown of overall revenue by fixed and mobile sectors and by voice, data and video between 2014 and 2019.
- The competitive landscape; an examination of key trends in competition and service providers' performance, revenue market shares and expected moves over the next 18-24 months.
- An in-depth sector analysis of fixed telephony and broadband services, mobile voice and data services; a quantitative analysis of service adoption trends by technology/platform as well as operator, average revenue per line/subscription and service revenue through the end of the forecast period.
- Main opportunities; this section details the near-term opportunities for operators, vendors and investors in Madagascar's telecommunications markets.
- This Country Intelligence Report helps executives build proactive, profitable growth strategies by offering comprehensive, relevant analysis of Madagascar's telecommunications markets based on insights directly from the local market players.
- The report offers a wealth of data on the telecom markets, with the mobile and fixed segments examined in detail.
- The competitive landscape and the major players are given extra attention, enabling local players or prospective market entrants to gain the insight they need.
- The broad but detailed perspective will help operators, equipment vendors and other telecom industry players to succeed in the challenging telecommunications market in Madagascar.
- The report is designed for an executive-level audience, boasting presentation quality that allows it to be turned into presentable material immediately.
- The report concludes with an exploration of the opportunities available in Madagascar's market to operators, vendors and investors.
Market and competitor overview
Economic, demographic and political context
Major market players
Overall market opportunities
Telma, Orange, Bharti Airtel
Pyramid Research expects to see overall service revenue grow at a CAGR of under 7% by 2019. Improved international connectivity and capacity means that fixed prices are likely to be competitive with the existing mobile broadband offers.
The top two operators, Orange Madagascar and Airtel Madagascar, which are focused on the mobile services market, account for under 59% of telecom services revenue in the country, or $191m. Competition in the Malagasy telecom market has been strong over the past decade as the operators vie to attract new subscribers. This is mainly due to the fact that the country still has a relatively low level of mobile penetration and the operators see this as an opportunity to attract new subscribers and increase their market shares.
Adoption of 3G technologies is at 12.5% of the mobile subscription base; we project this will grow significantly over the forecast period. LTE subscriptions are expected to reach 0.7m by 2019, 2.8% of total mobile subscriptions in Madagascar. We expect the growth of LTE subscribers to begin by 2016, by which time the regulatory framework and digital switchover should have been completed and new spectrum allocated.
Fixed broadband penetration increased slightly to reach 0.25% of the population in 2014. The number of narrowband lines in Madagascar has been declining. We expect net disconnections to continue to increase, and this will translate.
The material was prepared in November, 2014.