Kenya Telecommunications Report Q2 2016

Date: March 16, 2016
Pages: 66
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: K22D21CF882EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We slightly upgraded our Q216 forecasts, due to faster growth in 2015 with 1.7mn new subscribers being added in Q315. Further growth in the market will be supported by a low penetration rate current sitting at 88.1%. Mobile Financial Services, in particular, will be a key driver for both subscription and revenue growth. We however remain watchful of recent consolidation in the market, strong competition in the wireline sector, and Helios' acquisition of a 70% stake in Telecom Kenya. Furthermore, we still believe that the completed digital migration will free up new spectrum, easing the response to growth in the data market.

Latest Updates & Industry Development
  • The Kenyan mobile market grew by 4.9% quarter-on-quarter (q o q) in Q315 and 15.5% year-on-year. We forecast mobile subscribers to grow to 84.43mn.
  • Mobile Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) appreciation continued, with Safaricom registering a 1.2% y-o-y increase in blended ARPU in Q315. We forecast monthly blended ARPU to grow to KES386.3mn in 2016.
  • The disconnection of Telekom Kenya's CDMA network led to a substantial fall in fixed-line subscriptions. We nevertheless forecast a low 0.4% 2016 growth in fixed-line telephone subscriptions.
  • The internet market was the fastest growing segment of the Kenyan mobile network registering a 40.8% y-o-y growth in March 15. The trend was continued in Q2 and 3 in 2015. In 2016, we forecast 3G and 4G to account for 24.8% of the mobile market.
BMI Industry View
Latest Updates & Industry Development
Industry Forecast
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
  Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Kenya 2013-2020)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Regional RRI Comparison, Q216
  Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index, Q2 2016
Kenya Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Market Drivers & Trends
  Table: National Payment System Framework - Key Points
Wireline Voice & Broadband
  Table: Internet Subscriptions By Technology
  Table: Fixed/Fixed Wireless Broadband Market
Regulatory Development
Regulatory Overview
  Table: Kenya: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
  Table: National Payment System Framework - Key Points
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Key Players - Kenya Telecoms Sector
  Table: Kenya Mobile Market Overview 2014-2015
  Table: Safaricom
  Table: Orange
  Table: Airtel
Company Profile
Telkom Kenya
Demographic Forecast
  Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kenya 1990-2025)
  Table: Key Population Ratios (Kenya 1990-2025)
  Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Kenya 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group (Kenya 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group % (Kenya 1990-2025)
  Table: Glossary Of Terms
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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