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Kenya - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband - Statistics and Analyses

June 2020 | 197 pages | ID: K4C6F876F84EN
BuddeComm

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Kenya’s mobile operators progress with 5G trials

Kenya’s telecommunications market continues to undergo considerable changes in the wake of increased competition, improved international connectivity, and rapid developments in the mobile market. The landing of four fibre-optic international submarine cables in recent years dramatically reduced the cost of phone calls and internet access, allowing internet services to be affordable to a far greater proportion of the population. In parallel, the sector’s regulator has reduced interconnection tariffs and implemented a range of regulations aimed at developing further competition.

The incumbent fixed-line telco has struggled to make headway in this market, prompting reorganisation in 2018 which included a sale and leaseback arrangement with its mobile tower portfolio. In early 2020 competition authorities approved the acquisition of Telkom Kenya by Airtel Kenya, with the new merged operator able to provide a greater challenge to the market dominance of Safaricom.

Numerous competitors are rolling out national and metropolitan fibre backbone networks and wireless access networks to deliver services to population centres across the country. Several fibre infrastructure sharing agreements have been forged, and as a result the number of fibre broadband connections increased 53% in 2019, year-on-year. Much of the progress in the broadband segment is due to the government’s revised national broadband strategy, which has been updated with goals through to 2030, and which are largely dependent on mobile broadband platforms based on LTE and 5G.

BuddeComm notes that the outbreak of the Coronavirus in 2020 is having a significant impact on production and supply chains globally. During the coming year the telecoms sector to various degrees is likely to experience a downturn in mobile device production, while it may also be difficult for network operators to manage workflows when maintaining and upgrading existing infrastructure. Overall progress towards 5G may be postponed or slowed down in some countries.

On the consumer side, spending on telecoms services and devices is under pressure from the financial effect of large-scale job losses and the consequent restriction on disposable incomes. However, the crucial nature of telecom services, both for general communication as well as a tool for home-working, will offset such pressures. In many markets the net effect should be a steady though reduced increased in subscriber growth.

Although it is challenging to predict and interpret the long-term impacts of the crisis as it develops, these have been acknowledged in the industry forecasts contained in this report.

The report also covers the responses of the telecom operators as well as government agencies and regulators as they react to the crisis to ensure that citizens can continue to make optimum use of telecom services. This can be reflected in subsidy schemes and the promotion of tele-health and tele-education, among other solutions.

Key developments:
  • Telkom Kenya and Airtel Kenya secure approvals for their merger;
  • Alphabet’s Loon balloons finally come into service;
  • Kenya sees a 35% increase in international bandwidth in 2019;
  • Universal Service Fund extends mobile coverage to underserved northern regions;
  • Safaricom launches M-PESA Global payment service;
  • Government proposes increase in m-money transfer tax;
  • Regulator introduces a new system to measure QoS parameters;
  • M-money interoperability starts;
  • Report update includes the regulator’s market data to December 2019, operator data to Q1 2020, Telecom Maturity Index charts and analyses, assessment of the global impact of COVID-19 on the telecoms sector, recent market developments.
Companies mentioned in this report:

Telkom Kenya, Jamii Telecom, Access Kenya (Dimension Data), Kenya Power and Lighting Company (KPLC), Kenya Pipeline Corporation (KPC), Wananchi, Safaricom, Bharti Airtel, MTN, Liquid Telecom, Essar Telkom Kenya, Mobile Pay (Tangaza Pesa), Zioncell Kenya, Finserve Africa (Equitel), Kenya Data Networks (KDN), Jamii Telecom, SimbaNet, Africa Online, Access Kenya (Dimension Data), Wananchi Online, Swift Global, Internet Solutions Kenya (InterConnect), Gilat Satellite Networks, Afsat Communications, Inmarsat, Indigo Telecom (Thuraya), Nation TV (NTV)
1 KEY STATISTICS

2 REGIONAL AFRICAN MARKET COMPARISON

2.1 TMI vs GDP
2.2 Mobile and mobile broadband
2.3 Fixed and mobile broadband

3 COUNTRY OVERVIEW

4 COVID-19 AND ITS IMPACT ON THE TELECOM SECTOR

4.1 Economic considerations and responses
4.2 Mobile devices
4.3 Subscribers
4.4 Infrastructure

5 TELECOMMUNICATIONS MARKET

5.1 Market analysis

6 REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT

6.1 Regulatory authority
6.2 Fixed-line developments
6.3 Mobile network developments

7 MOBILE MARKET

7.1 General statistics
7.2 Mobile data
7.3 Mobile broadband
7.4 Mobile infrastructure
7.5 Major mobile operators
7.6 Mobile content and applications

8 FIXED-LINE BROADBAND MARKET

8.1 Introduction and statistical overview
8.2 Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) networks
8.3 Fibre-to-the-Premises (FttP) networks
8.4 Other fixed broadband services

9 DIGITAL ECONOMY

9.1 E-learning
9.2 E-commerce
9.3 E-government
9.4 E-agriculture

10 FIXED NETWORK OPERATORS

10.1 Telkom Kenya
10.2 Liquid Telecom Kenya (KDN)
10.3 Jamii Telecom
10.4 AccessKenya

11 TELECOMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE

11.1 Overview of the national telecom network
11.2 National Optic Fibre Backbone Infrastructure (NOFBI)
11.3 International infrastructure

12 APPENDIX HISTORIC DATA

13 GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS

14 RELATED REPORTS

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1 Top Level Country Statistics and Telco Authorities Kenya 2020 (e)
Table 2 Telecom sector revenue in Kenya 2007 2017
Table 3 Annual mobile number portings 2013- 2019
Table 4 Change in the share of mobile voice traffic share by operator 2014 2019
Table 5 Growth in the number of mobile subscribers and penetration rate in Kenya 2010 2025
Table 6 Change in the number of prepaid and contract mobile subscribers 2014- 2019
Table 7 Change in SMS traffic by quarter 2012 2019
Table 8 Change in the volume of SMS domestic annual traffic 2008 2019
Table 9 Change in the number of mobile internet subscribers by provider 2013 2019
Table 10 Change in the share of mobile data subscribers by provider 2014 2019
Table 11 Growth in the number of active mobile broadband subscribers 2010 2025
Table 12 Change in the number of mobile data subscribers 2015 2019
Table 14 Increase in Safaricom's revenue 2011 2020
Table 15 Change in Safaricom's revenue by sector 2010 2020
Table 16 Change in the proportion of Safaricom's service revenue by sector 2014 2020
Table 17 Growth in the number of Safaricom's mobile subscribers 2010 2020
Table 18 Safaricom economic contribution 2016 2019
Table 19 Change in Safaricom's mobile ARPU by platform 2018 2020
Table 22 Change in the number of Telkom Kenya's mobile subscribers 2012 2019
Table 23 Growth in the number of Finserve's mobile subscribers 2014 2019
Table 24 Mobile Pay mobile subscribers 2018 2019
Table 25 Growth in mobile money penetration rate 2013 2020
Table 26 Change in the number of m-money subscribers and agents 2012 2019
Table 27 Mobile money subscribers by operator 2014 2019
Table 28 Growth in the number of m-money transactions and value 2008 2019
Table 29 Growth in Safaricom's M-PESA revenue 2008 2020
Table 30 Growth in the number of Safaricom's active M-PESA customers 2012 2020
Table 31 Change in Safaricom's M-PESA transactions value by type 2011 2018
Table 32 Growth in the number of internet subscriptions 2010 2019
Table 33 Growth in the number of wireless internet subscriptions by access technology 2010 2019
Table 34 Change in the number of fixed-line broadband subscriptions by access technology 2010 2019
Table 35 Change in the number of fixed-line broadband subscriptions by access technology 2010 2019
Table 36 Change in the number of fixed-line broadband subscriptions and penetration 2010 2025
Table 37 Growth in the number of broadband subscriptions 2014 2019
Table 38 Decline in the number of DSL subscribers 2009 2019
Table 39 Market share of fixed broadband subscribers by operator 2018 - 2019
Table 40 Safaricom fixed broadband subscribers 2015 2020
Table 41 Growth in the number of Safaricom's fibre broadband premises covered 2016 2020
Table 42 Growth in the number of fibre broadband subscribers 2011 2019
Table 43 Change in the number of cable broadband subscribers 2016 2019
Table 44 Fixed-wireless subscriptions in Kenya 2007 2019
Table 45 Change in the number of fixed lines in service and teledensity 2010 2025
Table 46 Growth in international internet bandwidth 2010 2019
Table 47 International bandwidth capacity by platform 2013 2019
Table 48 International bandwidth used 2013 2019
Table 49 Historic - Mobile subscribers and penetration rate in Kenya 1999 2009
Table 50 Historic - Fixed lines in service and teledensity in Kenya 1999 2009
Table 51 Historic - Internet users and penetration rate 1999 2010
Table 52 Historic - International internet bandwidth 2000 2009
Table 53 Historic - Essar Telecom subscribers 2010 2014
Table 54 Historic - Telkom Kenya revenue 2010 2014
Table 55 Historic - Internet services revenue and investments 2009 2015
Table 56 Historic - Telkom fixed-line subscribers 2008 2016
Table 57 Historic - MMS traffic 2012 2015
Table 58 Historic - ICT sector revenue in Kenya 2012 2016
Table 59 Historic - Mobile services revenue and investments 2009- 2017
Table 60 Historic - 2G Mobile base stations by operator 2012- 2017
Table 61 Historic - 3G Mobile base stations by operator 2012- 2017
Chart 1 Overall Africa view - Telecoms Maturity Index vs GDP per Capita
Chart 2 East Africa - Telecoms Maturity Index vs GDP per Capita
Chart 3 Africa Bottom-tier Telecoms Maturity Index (Market Emergents)
Chart 4 East Africa Telecoms Maturity Index by country
Chart 5 East Africa mobile subscriber penetration versus mobile broadband penetration
Chart 6 East Africa fixed and mobile penetration rates
Chart 7 Change in the share of mobile voice traffic share by operator 2014 2019
Chart 8 Growth in the number of mobile subscribers and penetration rate in Kenya 2010 2025
Chart 9 Change in the number of prepaid and contract mobile subscribers 2014- 2019
Chart 10 Change in SMS traffic by quarter 2012 2019
Chart 11 Change in the volume of SMS domestic annual traffic 2008 2019
Chart 12 Change in the number of mobile internet subscribers by provider 2013 2019
Chart 13 Change in the share of mobile data subscribers by provider 2014 2019
Chart 14 Growth in the number of active mobile broadband subscribers 2010 2025
Chart 17 Change in Safaricom's revenue by sector 2010 2020
Chart 18 Change in the proportion of Safaricom's service revenue by sector 2014 2020
Chart 19 Growth in the number of Safaricom's mobile subscribers 2010 2020
Chart 20 Change in Safaricom's mobile ARPU by platform 2018 2020
Chart 21 Growth in the number of Safaricom's base stations by technology 2013 2020
Chart 22 Growth in the number of Airtel Kenya's mobile subscribers 2010 2019
Chart 23 Change in the number of Telkom Kenya's mobile subscribers 2012 2019
Chart 24 Growth in the number of Finserve's mobile subscribers 2014 2019
Chart 25 Change in the number of m-money subscribers and agents 2012 2019
Chart 27 Growth in the number of m-money transactions and value 2008 2019
Chart 28 Growth in Safaricom's M-PESA revenue 2008 2020
Chart 29 Growth in the number of Safaricom's active M-PESA customers 2012 2020
Chart 30 Change in Safaricom's M-PESA transactions value by type 2011 2018
Chart 31 Growth in the number of internet subscriptions 2010 2019
Chart 32 Change in the number of fixed-line broadband subscriptions by access technology 2010 2019
Chart 33 Change in the number of fixed-line broadband subscriptions and penetration 2010 2025
Chart 34 Decline in the number of DSL subscribers 2009 2019
Chart 35 Growth in the number of Safaricom's fibre broadband premises covered 2016 2020
Chart 36 Growth in the number of fibre broadband subscribers 2011 2019
Chart 37 Change in the number of fixed lines in service and teledensity 2010 2025
Exhibit 1 Generalised Market Characteristics by Market Segment
Exhibit 2 East Africa - Key Characteristics of Telecoms Markets by Country
Exhibit 3 Texting elephants
Exhibit 4 Job offers by SMS
Exhibit 5 2Africa submarine cable
Exhibit 6 2Africa landing stations


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