The Future of the Internet

Date: February 22, 2011
Pages: 113
Price:
US$ 2,875.00
Publisher: Business Insights
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: FD86F660382EN
Leaflet:

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The Future of the Internet
‘Real world utility’ for consumer use of the Internet today and in the near- to mid-term future will continue to change dramatically, destroying existing business models and creating new opportunities as it develops.

This report aims to highlight the opportunities and threats inherent for stakeholders in the development of consumer use of the Internet over the period 2010-2020, with particular emphasis, and quantification of revenue opportunities, on the next 5 years. It provides unique data and analysis showing how consumer Internet revenues will be segmented by region, type of stakeholder, and category.

Scope of this research
  • Access unique and quantified data and analysis of direct consumer Internet revenues over the period 2005-2020.
  • Examine how consumer Internet revenues will be divided by region, stakeholder and category.
  • Understand why dominance of the consumer Internet will shift eastwards towards Asia, and what the implications of this shift will be for stakeholders.
  • Understand how state and corporate interests will move the Internet away from the concept of neutrality.
  • Analyze the competitive responses of key players throughout the consumer Internet value chain to the coming opportunities and challenges.
Research and analysis highlights

Direct consumer Internet revenues are sustaining high double digit rates of growth, and are forecast to reach $1 trillion globally by 2020. The Asia Pacific region will overtake both North America and Western Europe to account for 35% of total spending by 2015 and will continue to drive and dominate total revenues.

The ubiquity of Mobile Internet access devices is increasing dramatically, while the ability to access and use the Internet over mobile devices is also contributing to the globalization of Internet use. Revenues from touchscreen mobile phone device sales will grow from $361m in 2010 to $1.6bn in 2020.

The shifting dynamics of the consumer Internet represent a great threat as well as opportunity to stakeholders. Dominant incumbents are in the most testing positions, since the dynamics of the future – moves to mobility, towards Asia and to greater operator power – mitigate against their established revenue base.

Key reasons to purchase this research
  • How much direct revenue will consumer use of the Internet generate over the next decade? How many people will have access to the Internet by 2020?
  • Which countries, regions, and market segments present the biggest opportunities in terms of revenue generation?
  • What will be the impact of the huge growth in numbers of Internet users in economies such as China and India?
  • Will the Internet adhere to the concept of net neutrality, or will it become more closed and regulated through corporate and state pressure?
  • How will key players adapt their strategies to deal with changes in consumer use of the Internet in the coming years?
Table of Contents
Andrew Nuttney
Gary Eastwood
Disclaimer
Executive summary
Introduction
Consumer Internet revenues 2010 to 2020
Going mobile
Eastwards revenue migration
The myth of net neutrality and privacy
Competitive situation analysis

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

Summary
Introduction
Report purpose, value, and interested parties
What is the Internet?
Introduction
The structure of the Internet
A brief history of the Internet
Microsoft and the mass consumer Internet
Business implications of the development of the consumer Internet

CHAPTER 2 CONSUMER INTERNET REVENUES 2010 TO 2020

Summary
Introduction
Notes on methodology and sources
Definition of ‘direct’ and ‘indirect’ revenues
Revenue category definitions
Devices
Advertising
Applications
Goods
Contracts and subscriptions
Other services
Revenues by stakeholder (recipient)
Mobile operators
Fixed line ISPs
Device manufacturers
Developers
Internet properties
Other
Market analysis and sizing
Total consumer Internet revenues
Internet revenue growth by geographical region
Internet revenue share by geographical region
Internet revenue growth by major category
Internet revenue share (%) by major category, 2005 to 2020
Internet revenues by major category by geographical region, 2010
Internet revenues by major category by geographical region, 2015
Internet revenue growth by major stakeholder
Internet revenue share by major stakeholder
Summary

CHAPTER 3 GOING MOBILE

Summary
Introduction
The growth of mobile data traffic
Mobile data traffic by geographical region, 2010 and 2013
Mobile enablers remain robust
Mobile revenue recipients
The business impact of the mobile-led Internet
Wider business implications
Leading players’ response
Summary

CHAPTER 4 EASTWARDS REVENUE MIGRATION

Summary
Introduction
Total Internet users by geographic region and by top 10 countries, 2010-2020
Internet revenue shift by major category by geographical region ($bn), 2010–15
The development of Asian consumer Internet revenues
Overview of Asian national markets
China
Rapid urbanization drives up income and growth
Internet users are young and mobile
Affordability is still an issue in purchasing decisions
Domestic players dominate the market
Japan
Consumer purchasing behavior is changing in an ‘age of frugality’
Consumers spend more time at home and on the Internet
Mobile connectivity drives non-hardware revenues
Language and culture present challenges to non-domestic players
South Korea
Investment in broadband infrastructure has a significant impact
Popularity of the mobile Internet offers big opportunities
Korean players make their mark on the global stage
India
Internet usage set for a dramatic increase, but lack of 3G coverage holds it back
Market fragmentation and low incomes inhibit growth
Complex market provides big opportunities for indigenous players
South East Asia
Thailand
Indonesia
The coming East-West consumer Internet ‘trade war’
Asia as a consumer market
Western corporations and governments face a threat to their Internet dominance
Growing Asian consumer class is the basis of this threat
Cultural and linguistic differences provide further challenges to western players
Asia as a center of innovation
Asian high-tech graduates return from the west to overturn the innovation gap
Multinational companies setting up R&D centers in India
Blending intellectual and technological potential into successful firms
A looming trade war
Chinese interests re-shape the Asian market and beyond
India looks for a bigger part on the world stage
The EU’s role remains peripheral
How the consumer Internet trade war will develop

CHAPTER 5 THE MYTH OF NET NEUTRALITY AND PRIVACY

Summary
Introduction
State threats
CyberCom launch indicates US desire to monitor and protect state interests
Governments worldwide assert their authority
The development of regionally defined Internets
Corporate threats
Google’s power is based on consumer’s personal information
Mobile operators influence Internet access in their own interests
The Internet is an unstudied commercial system
The context aware Internet as a non-private space
Ubiquitous connectivity leads to ubiquitous monitoring
Social networks need personal information to monetize
Privacy becomes the domain of a privileged and wealthy elite

CHAPTER 6 COMPETITIVE SITUATION ANALYSIS

Summary
Introduction
Mobile and fixed line operators: competitive response
Vodafone
China Mobile
Device manufacturers: competitive response
Apple
Nokia
Internet properties: competitive response
Google
Microsoft
Tencent (QQ.com)
Facebook

TABLE OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Global online consumer revenues, including ecommerce ($bn), 2005–20
Figure 2: Consumer Internet revenue growth by geographical region ($bn), 2005–20
Figure 3: Internet revenue share by geographical region (%), 2005–20
Figure 4: Internet revenue by major category ($bn), 2005–20
Figure 5: Internet revenue share (%) by major category, 2005–20
Figure 6: Internet revenues by major category by geographical region ($bn), 2010
Figure 7: Internet revenues by major category by geographical region ($bn), 2015
Figure 8: Internet revenues by major stakeholder ($bn), 2005–15
Figure 9: Internet revenue share by major stakeholder (%), 2005–15
Figure 10: Internet access device sales (units, m), 2005–20
Figure 11: Internet access device revenue share by device category (%), 2005-2020
Figure 12: Mobile data traffic usage by geographic region (TB per month), 2010–13
Figure 13: Mobile data traffic distribution by geographic region (%), 2010–13
Figure 14: Global 3G subscribers and penetration, 2010-2018
Figure 15: Global mobile consumer Internet revenues by stakeholder ($bn), 2005–15
Figure 16: Global mobile consumer Internet revenues ($bn) excluding mobile operators, 2005–15
Figure 17: Total Internet users by region (m), 2010–20
Figure 18: Internet user distribution by Top 10 countries (%), 2010 and 2015
Figure 19: Internet revenue shift by major category by geographical region ($bn), 2010–15
Figure 20: Asian consumer Internet revenues by category ($bn), 2010–15

TABLE OF TABLES

Table 1: Global online consumer revenues, including ecommerce ($bn), 2005–20
Table 2: Consumer Internet revenue growth by geographical region ($bn), 2005–20
Table 3: Internet revenue share by geographical region (%), 2005–20
Table 4: Internet revenue by major category ($bn), 2005–20
Table 5: Internet revenue share (%) by major category, 2005–20
Table 6: Internet revenues by major category by geographical region ($bn), 2010
Table 7: Internet revenues by major category by geographical region ($bn), 2015
Table 8: Internet revenues by major stakeholder ($bn), 2005–15
Table 9: Internet revenue share by major stakeholder (%), 2005–15
Table 10: Internet access device sales (units, m), 2005–20
Table 11: Internet access device revenue share by device category (%), 2005-2020
Table 12: Mobile data traffic usage by geographic region (TB per month), 2010–13
Table 13: Mobile data traffic distribution by geographic region (%), 2010–13
Table 14: Global 3G subscribers and penetration, 2010-2018
Table 15: Rank of 3G coverage (%) by major country (2010)
Table 16: Global mobile consumer Internet revenues by stakeholder ($bn), 2005–15
Table 17: Global mobile consumer Internet revenues ($bn) excluding mobile operators, 2005–15
Table 18: Total Internet users by region (m), 2010–20
Table 19: Internet users distribution by country (%), 2010 and 2015
Table 20: Internet revenue shift by major category by geographical region ($bn), 2010–15
Table 21: Asian consumer Internet revenues by category ($bn), 2010–15
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