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Belarus - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband - Statistics and Analyses

December 2020 | 117 pages | ID: B46C47C0196FEN
BuddeComm

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The Belarus - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband - Statistics and Analyses report includes all relevant BuddeComm research data and analysis. Covering trends and developments in telecommunications, mobile, internet, broadband, infrastructure and regulation. Please review the Executive Summary and Table of Contents for more details.

Executive Summary

Belarus's telcos adjust to political and economic turmoil

Belarus's government and telecom regulator are concluding three major programs aimed at developing the telecom sector and digital economy. Considerable progress has been made, in particular enabling the mobile network operators to trial 5G services and extending the reach of fibre infrastructure.

These programs were initiated in 2015 and 2016 while the country experienced declining economic growth and formed part of wider efforts to develop the economy through promoting the digital economy and developing the ICT sector. Such considerations have also encompassed a growing interest in applications relevant for smart cities.

Following the political turmoil of mid-2020 the local currency has depreciated against the US dollar and the euro, and this has placed greater strain on operator revenue.

Although the sector has been reformed, this has not yet resulted in the privatisation of the incumbent, despite the government being pressed to sell state enterprises in a bid to reduce overall debt. Revenue growth for Beltelecom is expected to come from the FttP sector, where much of the company's capex is directed.

The mobile sector has also experienced some growth, with a rise in mobile penetration attributed to effective competition which has helped drive down consumer prices. Operators have concentrated on developing mobile broadband and data services with a view to capitalising on such services to increase ARPU. Recent spectrum auctions have facilitated the development of mobile broadband access, particularly in rural areas, while the state-sponsored operator beCloud, charged with developing a wholesale-based LTE network, has enabled commercial LTE services to be extended to about 80% of the population. beCloud is also charged with developing the network infrastructure to support 5G services. It is undergoing the process using spectrum in three bands.

In early 2015 the government decreed that the 1.5% tax on revenue derived from telcos (which was put in place in 2007) should be channelled to developing universal telecom services, particularly aimed at rural areas. In mid-2016 the cash-strapped government increased the tax on all telecom services from 20% to 25%, while a Google tax' was imposed from the beginning of 2018.

BuddeComm notes that the Coronavirus pandemic is having a significant impact on production and supply chains globally. During the coming year the telecoms sector to various degrees is likely to experience a downturn in mobile device production, while it may also be difficult for network operators to manage workflows when maintaining and upgrading existing infrastructure. Overall progress towards 5G may be postponed or slowed down in some countries.

On the consumer side, spending on telecoms services and devices is under pressure from the financial effect of large-scale job losses and the consequent restriction on disposable incomes. However, the crucial nature of telecom services, both for general communication as well as a tool for home-working, will offset such pressures. In many markets the net effect should be a steady though reduced increased in subscriber growth.

Although it is challenging to predict and interpret the long-term impacts of the crisis as it develops, these have been acknowledged in the industry forecasts contained in this report.

The report also covers the responses of the telecom operators as well as government agencies and regulators as they react to the crisis to ensure that citizens can continue to make optimum use of telecom services. This can be reflected in subsidy schemes and the promotion of tele-health and tele-education, among other solutions.

Key developments:
  • A1 Belarus opens standalone 5G service;
  • Regulator ends roaming charges with Eastern Partnership Initiative countries;
  • A1 Belarus launches an NB-IoT service, begins deploying GPON networks;
  • Belarus sees 2.7 million customers connected to GPON;
  • LTE use reaches 80% of mobile subscribers;
Report update includes regulator data to September 2020, operator data to Q3 2020, Telecom Maturity Index charts and analyses, assessment of the global impact of Covid-19 on the telecoms sector, recent market developments.

Companies mentioned in this report:

Beltelecom, Cosmos TV, Minsk TV and Information Networks (MTIS), Teleradio, Belcel, A1 Belarus (MDC), MTS Belarus, BeST life:)
1 KEY STATISTICS

2 REGIONAL EUROPEAN MARKET COMPARISON

2.1 Europe Telecom Maturity Index by tier
2.2 TMI versus GDP
2.3 Mobile and mobile broadband penetration
2.4 Fixed versus mobile broadband penetration

3 COUNTRY OVERVIEW

4 COVID-19 AND ITS IMPACT ON THE TELECOM SECTOR

4.1 Economic considerations and responses
4.2 Mobile devices
4.3 Subscribers
4.4 Infrastructure

5 TELECOMMUNICATIONS MARKET

6 REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT

6.1 Historic overview
6.2 Regulatory authority
6.3 Fixed-line developments
6.4 Mobile network developments

7 MOBILE MARKET

7.1 Market analysis
7.2 Mobile statistics
7.3 Mobile infrastructure
7.4 Major mobile operators
7.5 Mobile content and applications

8 FIXED-LINE BROADBAND MARKET

8.1 Market analysis
8.2 Broadband statistics
8.3 Fixed-line broadband technologies

9 DIGITAL ECONOMY

9.1 E-commerce
9.2 E-government

10 FIXED NETWORK OPERATORS

10.1 Beltelecom
10.2 Alternative Digital Network (ADN)

11 TELECOMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE

11.1 Overview of the national telecom network
11.2 International infrastructure
11.3 Smart infrastructure

12 APPENDIX HISTORIC DATA

13 GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS

14 RELATED REPORTS

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1 Top Level Country Statistics and Telco Authorities - Belarus 2020 (e)
Table 2 MTRs by operator 2015 - 2020
Table 3 Growth in the number of annual mobile numbers ported 2012 - 2018
Table 4 Change in the number of mobile subscribers and penetration rate 2010 - 2025
Table 5 Decline in SMS traffic 2007 - 2020
Table 6 Growth in the number of active mobile broadband subscribers and penetration 2010 - 2025
Table 7 Mobile coverage by technology Sep 2020
Table 8 Development of A1 Belarus's financial data 2010 2020
Table 9 A1 Belarus postpaid, prepaid and blended annualised ARPU 2010 2020
Table 10 Change in A1 Belarus's annualised minutes of use (MOU) 2010 2020
Table 11 Change in the number of A1 Belarus's prepaid subscribers 2010 2020
Table 12 A1 Belarus mobile broadband subscribers, M2M connections 2012 2020
Table 13 Change in the number of MTS Belarus's subscribers 2009 - 2020
Table 14 Development of MTS Belarus's financial data 2014 2020
Table 15 Development of MTS Belarus's financial data (RUB) 2014 - 2020
Table 16 Development of BeST's financial data (BYN) 2015 - 2020
Table 17 BeST financial data (Lira) 2014 - 2020
Table 18 BeST mobile subscribers 2009 - 2020
Table 19 Fixed-line and mobile internet subscribers, penetration 2007 2019
Table 20 Growth in the number of fixed-line broadband subscribers and penetration 2010 - 2025
Table 21 Ethernet lines by data rate 2017 - 2019
Table 22 Change in the number of cable broadband lines by data rate 2017 - 2019
Table 23 Decline in the number of DSL subscribers 2009 - 2019
Table 24 Change in the number of DSL broadband lines by data rate 2017 - 2019
Table 25 A1 Belarus fixed-line subscribers 2016 - 2020
Table 26 Fibre broadband subscribers 2011 - 2019
Table 27 Decline in the number of fixed lines in service and teledensity 2010 - 2025
Table 28 International internet bandwidth 2009 - 2020
Table 29 Historic - A1 Belarus financial data 2007 2009
Table 30 Historic - A1 Belarus postpaid, prepaid and blended annualised ARPU 2007 2009
Table 31 A1 Belarus monthly minutes of use (MOU) 2007 2009
Table 32 Historic - A1 Belarus prepaid users and share of total 2007 2009
Chart 1 Europe Telecoms Maturity Index Market Leaders (top tier)
Chart 2 Europe Telecoms Maturity Index Market Challengers (middle tier)
Chart 3 Europe Telecoms Maturity Index Market Emergents (bottom tier)
Chart 4 Overall view - Telecoms Maturity Index vs GDP per Capita
Chart 5 Europe - mobile subscriber penetration vs mobile broadband penetration
Chart 6 Scandinavia and Baltics: mobile subscriber penetration vs mobile broadband penetration
Chart 7 Northern Europe mobile subscriber penetration vs mobile broadband penetration
Chart 8 Southern Europe mobile subscriber penetration vs mobile broadband penetration
Chart 9 Eastern Europe mobile subscriber penetration vs mobile broadband penetration
Chart 10 Scandinavia and Baltics fixed and mobile broadband penetration
Chart 11 Northern Europe fixed and mobile broadband penetration
Chart 12 Southern Europe fixed and mobile broadband penetration
Chart 13 Eastern Europe fixed and mobile broadband penetration
Chart 14 Growth in the number of annual mobile numbers ported 2012 - 2018
Chart 15 Change in the number of mobile subscribers and penetration rate 2010 - 2025
Chart 16 Decline in SMS traffic 2007 - 2020
Chart 17 Growth in the number of active mobile broadband subscribers and penetration 2010 - 2025
Chart 18 Development of A1 Belarus's financial data 2010 2020
Chart 19 Change in A1 Belarus's annualised minutes of use (MOU) 2010 2020
Chart 20 Change in the number of A1 Belarus's total mobile and prepaid mobile subscribers 2010 2020
Chart 21 A1 Belarus mobile broadband subscribers, M2M connections 2012 2020
Chart 22 Change in the number of MTS Belarus's subscribers 2009 - 2020
Chart 23 Development of MTS Belarus's financial data 2014 2020
Chart 24 Development of MTS Belarus's financial data (RUB) 2014 2020
Chart 25 Development of BeST's financial data (BYN) 2015 - 2020
Chart 26 Growth in the number of fixed-line broadband subscribers and penetration 2010 - 2025
Chart 27 Ethernet lines by data rate 2017 - 2019
Chart 28 Change in the number of cable broadband lines by data rate 2018 - 2019
Chart 29 Decline in the number of DSL subscribers 2009 - 2019
Chart 30 Change in the number of DSL broadband lines by data rate 2017 - 2019
Chart 31 Decline in the number of fixed lines in service and teledensity 2010 - 2025
Exhibit 1 Generalised Market Characteristics by Market Segment


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