Russia Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2015

Date: September 30, 2015
Pages: 78
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: Download
ID: R495377D35BEN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Economic sanctions and our in-house Country Risk team's weak economic outlook for Russia, particularly the rouble - which we now forecast will weaken from an average of RUB38.6/USD in 2014 to an average of RUB62/USD in 2015 - are behind our bearish outlook for a severe contraction in device sales in 2015. Russian purchasing power in global markets will be eroded, hitting demand for consumer electronics devices, and resulting in both deferred purchases and substitution for cheaper models, particularly in the smartphone market. After the serious disruption of 2015 BMI expects a gradual recovery to begin in 2016 with rouble stabilisation, before an acceleration in growth in 2017, but total demand in 2019 is forecast to still be 34.2% below the 2012 peak in US dollar terms. In this perspective, it is to be expected that heightened price sensitivity will increase the share of sales captured by local low cost vendors such as Yota Devices, Explay and FLY, which all made major inroads in terms of market share in 2013 and 2014 and look set to capitalise on wider economic trends over the medium term. There is also additional downside risk to our core scenario from the political sphere where tensions between Russia and the US could see the sanctions imposed on Russia in mid-2014 maintained or even extended.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Computer Hardware Sales: USD12.0bn in 2014 to USD7.0bn in 2015, -42% in US dollar terms. Rouble depreciation causing both deferred purchases and a shift to lower value products due to erosion of consumer purchasing power.
BMI Industry View
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
  Table: Consumer Electronics Overview (Russia 2013-2019)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
  Table: RUSSIA - Private Consumption Forecasts
  Table: RUSSIA - Government Consumption Forecasts
  Table: RUSSIA - Fixed Capital Formation Forecasts
  Table: RUSSIA - Net Exports Forecasts
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Industry Risk Reward Index
  Table: Europe Risk/Rewards Index - Q4 2015
Market Overview
  Table: PC Sales (Russia 2013-2019)
  Table: AV Sales (Russia 2013-2019)
Mobile Handsets
  Table: Mobile Communications (Russia 2013-2019)
Competitive Landscape
International Companies
  Table: Huawei Technologies
  Table: Lenovo
  Table: Foxconn
Local Companies
  Table: Explay
  Table: Yota Devices
Industry Trends And Developments
Regulatory Development
  Table: IT Authorities
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
  Table: Population Headline Indicators (Russia 1990-2025)
  Table: Key Population Ratios (Russia 1990-2025)
  Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Russia 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group (Russia 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group % (Russia 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
  Table: Consumer Electronics Risk/Reward Index Indicators
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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