Singapore Defence and Security Report Q2 2014

Date: February 12, 2014
Pages: 81
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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BMI View: Singapore's year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 3.7% for 2013, with Q4 growth up 4.4% y-o-y, exceeded expectations. As South East Asia's economic hub, growth is crucial ensuring security and stability in the city-state and ensures that Singapore is able to maintain a stable defence budget. Defence expenditure will account for 3.8% of GDP in 2014, up from 3.7% in 2013. Nonetheless, while BMI predicts sustained economic growth and stability, there are economic risks that, though unikely, could undermine long-term defence spending as well as domestic security and social harmony.

In Q114 some commentators began to speculate about the potential for an economic crash, similar to that in Iceland in 2009, as low interest rates and soaring property prices have been prompting Singaporeans to go into debt to invest in properties they can ill afford. However it is important to clarify that this is a speculative risk. The Singaporean government has already taken decisive steps to cool property demand and prevent excessive leverage. BMI therefore considers it unlikely that an economic crash, with its associated social repercussions, is unlikely. Declining exports also represent a considerable economic risk factor. In nine out of the 12 months in 2013 Singapore's exports declined. With foreign-worker restrictions being enforced, Singapore risks not fully capitalising on an upswing in global demand for various manufactured products expected in 2014. However, while manufacturers may not be able to meet demand, less reliance on foreign workers is likely to have productivity benefits. BMI does not see this risk factor affecting Singapore's security situation or defence policy.
BMI Industry View
Key BMI Forecasts
Recent Developments
Singapore Security SWOT
Singapore Defence & Security SWOT
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
Defence Expenditure
  Table: Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017
Armed Forces
  Table: Armed Forces, 2004-2010 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
  Table: Manpower Available For Military Service, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49 unless otherwise stated)
Defence Sector Production
  Table: Defence Trade Balance, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
  Table: Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
  Table: Defence Exports, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Services Still Vulnerable To External Conditions
Export Picture Only Slightly Better For 2014
Domestic Economic Fundamentals Remain Sound
Household Debt A Risk
  Table: Singapore - Economic Activity
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Asia Security Risk Ratings
  Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
  Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Singapore Risk Ratings
Market Overview
Defence Market Overview
The Armed Forces
Domestic Defence Industries
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Security Overview
Domestic Threats
Regional Security
International Security
Company Profile
Singapore Technologies Aero
Singapore Technologies Electronics
Singapore Technologies Kinetics
Singapore Technologies Marine
Regional Overview
Political Risk Analysis
Global Industry Overview
Global Political Outlook
  Table: Election Timetable, 2014
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
  Table: Security Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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