Serbia Defence and Security Report 2013

Date: November 21, 2012
Pages: 55
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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Serbia is continuing its efforts to reduce defence spending. The country became the last former Yugoslavian state to end conscription on January 1 2011 as part of a broader programme of downsizing and professionalising its military. Introduced by current defence minister Aleksandar Vučić’s predecessor, Dragan Šutanovac, the initiative was intended to allow for the reinvestment of funds into superior training and more advanced equipment for serving troops BMI estimates that Serbia’s defence spending for 2012 totalled US$856.7mn, a 7.72% reduction on the US$1.016bn invested in 2011 but a 3.96% increase in local currency terms. This equates to 2.25% of GDP, compared with 2.3% in 2011, or 4.94% of total government expenditure, down from 5.10% a year previously.

The country’s military continues to be held back by budgetary constraints. With the newly elected administration of President Tomislav Nikolić currently tackling the public finances as Serbia wallows in recession, there seems little prospect of a significant ramp-up in investment in the immediate future. The country also shows no sign of altering its current defence policy of armed neutrality.

Vučić, Serbia’s new defence minister and the country’s first deputy prime minister, took office on July 27 2012. On October 4, following a meeting in Belgrade with the chief of staff of the Czech military, Lt Gen Petr Pavel, Vučić reiterated Serbia’s position as a militarily neutral state and said it would not be seeking to form multilateral military alliances. However, the minister also stressed the importance of collaboration between countries and volunteered his support for the EU Višegrad Battle Group and the establishment of a regional training centre for educating soldiers on atomic, biological and chemical warfare. Kruševac in central Serbia was proposed as a likely site for such a base.

Serbia’s biggest overseas troop deployment remains the 43 infantry, two observers and one staff officer posted to work with a Hungarian-Slovak unit in Cyprus as part of a UN peacekeeping mission.

Vučić visited the post in September 2012 and met the Serbian troops stationed there as he announced Serbia’s latest foreign policy goals. The country also has a number of staff officers, medical officers, observers and technicians posted in foreign climes in support of the UN. These territories include Lebanon and the Democratic Republic of Congo, Côte d'Ivoire , Liberia, Somalia and Uganda in Africa Serbia is meanwhile preparing for accession talks with the EU. However, the European Commission (EC) has so far refused to give the country a start date for negotiations until ‘there is a visible and sustainable improvement of relations with Kosovo that will allow both Serbia and Kosovo to make progress towards the EU and avoid mutual blockade.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Serbia Security SWOT
Serbia Defence Industry SWOT
Serbia Political SWOT
Serbia Economic SWOT
Serbia Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Europe Security Overview
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
Europe In A Global Context
Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade
The Future Of The Eurozone And EU
EU Expansion
NATO Expansion And Relations With The US
Post-Qadhafi Libya
Relations With Russia
Relations With Turkey
The Balkans
Organised Crime
Islamist Terrorism
The Greater Black Sea Region
The Armenia-Azerbaijan Dispute
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
  Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
  Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
Armed Forces And Government Spending
International Deployments
  Table: Foreign Deployments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Procurement Trends And Developments
Latest Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
  Table: Serbia's Armed Forces Personnel, 2005-2010 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
  Table: Serbia's Manpower Available For Military Services, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Government Defence Expenditure
  Table: Serbia's Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
  Table: Serbia's Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017
Defence Trade
  Table: Serbia's Defence Exports, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
  Table: Serbia's Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
  Table: Serbia's Defence Trade Balance, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
Macroeconomic Activity
  Table: Serbia - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %, 2009-2016
Company Profiles
Prvi Partizan
Zastava Oruzje S-M
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
  Table: Methodology
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