Saudi Arabia Defence & Security Report Q2 2011

Date: March 22, 2011
Pages: 77
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: SFB570483F6EN

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The largest ever arms deal between Saudi Arabia and the US looks set to cement the two countries’ relationship. The proposed US$60bn arms package to Saudi Arabia, includes 84 new F-15 fighters (manufactured by Boeing), with upgrades for 70 more, and three helicopter types – 70 Apaches, 36 Little Birds (both also made by Boeing), as well as 72 Black Hawks (made by Sikorski). In addition, the US is discussing a US$30bn package to upgrade Saudi Arabia’s navy.

The landmark arms deal between Saudi Arabia and the US is viewed as a win-win situation for both parties. The US will benefit from job creation, while Saudi Arabia will strengthen its position vis-à-vis Iran. The Saudi Arabian royal family depends on steady oil revenues and Western support to maintain its tight grip on the population. The loss of either one of these could lead to substantial unrest and potentially regime change over the long term.

Security risks in the region have been heightened by recent bomb threats. The discovery of two highly sophisticated devices in October 2010, hidden in printer cartridges, highlights the risks posed by al-Qaida in the region.

Saudi Arabia has generally seen improving relations with other neighbouring states following its consistent support Pakistan in the wake of the serious floods in that country. The main exception is Iran, which can be considered to be the main geo-strategic rival to Saudi Arabia in the Middle East. We forecast economic growth recovering from 2011 onwards in Saudi Arabia, benefitting from the massive uptick in government spending and gross fixed capital formation. Vast infrastructure plans and a record budget over the coming five years will boost Saudi Arabia's economy through 2014, with real GDP projected to expand an average 3.2% between 2011 and 2014.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Saudi Arabia Security SWOT
Saudi Arabia Defence Industry SWOT
Saudi Arabia Political SWOT
Saudi Arabia Economic SWOT
Saudi Arabia Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
The United States
Japan And The Koreas
Egypt, Saudi Arabia And Pakistan
Wild Card In Global Politics
Middle East Security Overview
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
The Middle East In A Global Context
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
Regional Power Dynamics
Nuclear Proliferation
External Powers
The Outlook For The Middle East
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
  Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
  Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
City Terrorism Rating
  Table: BMI’s Middle East And North Africa City Terrorism Index
Political Overview
Foreign Policy
Domestic Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
  Table: Insurgent Groups
External Security Situation
Latest Developments
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
International Deployments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Structure
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Procurement Trends And Developments
Procurement Background
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
  Table: Saudi Arabia’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (‘000 personnel)
  Table: Saudi Arabia’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49)
Defence Expenditure
  Table: Saudi Arabia’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015
  Table: Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
Defence Trade
  Table: Saudi Arabia’s Arms And Ammunition Exports, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Outlook
  Table: Saudi Arabia – Macroeconomic Activity, 2007-2015
Company Profiles
BAE Systems
Thales International
Country Snapshot: Saudi Arabia Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
  Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
  Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
  Table: Education, 2003-2005
  Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
  Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2006
  Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
  Table: Methodology
Sources 77
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