Mexico Defence Report 2013

Date: October 24, 2012
Pages: 66
US$ 1,175.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) candidate Enrique Peña Nieto’s electoral victory in the July 2012 general election will install the new president-elect in office in December 2012, by which point the total number of homicides in Mexico is likely to pass the 100,000 mark. Official figures peg the total number of killings at 99,632 between 2007 and 2011, with drug-related violence driving the vast majority of homicides. This morbid milestone will intensify scrutiny of Peña Nieto's plans to tackle Mexico’s ongoing plague of drug-related violence.

With the highest turnout ever recorded in a national election, Peña Nieto's solid victory grants him a degree of legitimacy lacked by incumbent President Felipe Calderón. Despite putting forward a security policy broadly similar to the current administration's, President-elect Peña Nieto continued to poll best among voters who disapprove of the president's policies in the months ahead of the election. Peña Nieto's most recent proposal includes the creation of 40,000-person ‘national gendarmerie’ staffed by former soldiers and the continued utilisation of the military to fight the cartels until the new force can be fully trained.

Increasing indications could be seen in late 2012 that drug cartel the Zetas were in the process of splitting into two rival factions. We believe that the uptick in violence that could result from the inter-cartel fighting is likely to create a challenging situation for Peña Nieto.

Additional reminders about the extent of cartel infiltration into the country’s law enforcement agencies have been evident throughout 2012. The navy arrested 35 federal police force members over possible links with the Zetas in September 2012, while two Mexican generals were arrested for their alleged involvement in organised crime in May 2012. The government previously disbanded an entire municipal police force of more than 900 officers in Veracruz-Boca del Rio in December 2011.

In industry news, the government requested two Lockheed Martin C-130J-30 ‘Super’ Hercules military aircraft with related equipment in September 2012. The US$412mn transaction is expected to be used mostly for ‘presidential support’ but could also be used in security operations, including in drug-related missions. Mexico’s helicopter service firm Aeroservicios Especializados (ASESA) signed an agreement in early 2012 with Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation to partner on potential Black Hawk assembly and servicing work, while Eurocopter started construction on a new manufacturing facility in Querétaro. BMI sees defence expenditure expanding by 8.23% to MXN68.46bn (US$68.46bn) in 2012, with spending growth accelerating a further 8.65% in 2013. BMI expects defence spending growth to slow to about half that over the next several years until picking up again in 2019. Expenditure is expected to peak at 11.98% in 2020, before reaching MXN104.19bn (US$9.39bn) at the end of our forecast period in 2021.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Mexico Security SWOT
Mexico Defence Industry SWOT
Mexico Political SWOT
Mexico Economic SWOT
Mexico Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Latin America Security Overview
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
Security Risk Analysis
BMI's Regional Security Ratings
    Table: Latin America Security Ratings
    Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Ratings
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
    Table: Mexico’s Armed Forces Personnel ('000, unless otherwise stated), 2001-2009
    Table: Mexico’s Manpower Available For Military Services, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Defence Expenditure
    Table: Mexico’s Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017
    Table: Mexico’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
Defence Trade
    Table: Mexico’s Defence Exports, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
    Table: Mexico’s Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
    Table: Mexico’s Defence Trade Balance, 2010-2017
Macroeconomic Outlook
    Table: Mexico – GDP By Expenditure, Current Prices Breakdown, 2008-2016
Company Profiles
Honeywell Aerospace
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
    Table: Methodology
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