Kazakhstan and Central Asia Defence & Security Report Q2 2011

Date: March 22, 2011
Pages: 100
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: K2467D3AD78EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

The outlook for the defence sector in all five countries comprising Central Asia remains relatively stable. An antiquated defence sector and lack of investment for new development is the key characteristic across the region.

In Kazakhstan, the Parliament approved plans to hold a referendum regarding the extension of the Nazarbayev presidency until 2020 and to cancel the next two presidential elections. This provides some concerns over the openness of the parliamentary system, particularly in light of the trial against opposition presidential hopeful Zhasaral Quanyshalin on libel charges and the concurrent investigation for tax evasion against other opposition presidential candidate Vladimir Kozlov.

The country however continued to post stellar economic growth, with the IMF stating that Kazakhstan could see growth of 6% by 2012, as long as banks can get rid of the problematic loans that are hindering plans to diversify the economy. The IMF said it expects the tenge to strengthen in 2011, following moves by the government to restore the currency to a managed float. The government's strategy to diversify the oil-dependent economy over the coming years bodes well for long-term growth.

In Kyrgyzstan, senior officials detained nine suspects in November 2010 in connection with suspected Islamist terror campaigns in the country. The suspects were arrested in Bishkek and the southern city of Osh on accusations of planning terrorist acts. The same group was also accused of planning the blast outside the house of former President Bakiyev.

Political leaders in Kyrgyzstan agreed to form a coalition government on November 30 2010. However, parliament rejected the sole candidate for the speaker of the parliament, potentially forcing the parties back to the negotiating table. Should there be fresh elections, this would not only lead to a further protracted period of political jockeying but would also seriously undermine the legitimacy and effectiveness of Kyrgyzstan's democratic project. While presidential elections are set to take place in late 2011, we stress that this will be dependent on a working government emerging in parliament, which for now looks doubtful.

In November 2010, the Tajikistan government declared its campaign against militants in the eastern Rasht district almost complete, with over 20 killed and 30 arrested or surrendered. The government has accused followers of banned Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) of bombing police stations in the northern town of Khujand. In response to these terror attacks security along the border with Afghanistan strengthened after Afghan authorities early month warned against possible Taliban incursions.

Turkmenistan continued to see strained relations with Russia in the last few months. No breakthrough was achieved in talks held in October 2010 with visiting Russian President Medvedev to discuss natural gas prices and volumes. Tension was also highlighted with Russia-based telecommunications company Mobile TeleSystems (MTS) filing a lawsuit with an arbitration court after it had its operating license in Turkmenistan suspended for a month. While such tensions are unlikely to pose any security risk in the short term, Russia, as the largest defence supplier in the region continues to have a very direct effect on defence strategy
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Central Asia Security SWOT
Central Asian Defence Industry SWOT
Central Asia Political SWOT
Global Political Outlook
The United States
Japan And The Koreas
Egypt, Saudi Arabia And Pakistan
Wild Card In Global Politics
Europe Security Overview
Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
Europe In A Global Context
Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade
Central Asia Regional Security Overview
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
The Geopolitical Importance Of Central Asia
Challenges And Threats To Central Asia's Stability
Centripetal Forces
Centrifugal Forces
The Great Game In Central Asia: An Update
Central Asia's Future Evolution
Security Risk Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
  Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
  Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Central Asia Conflict Risk Rating
City Terrorism Ratings
  Table: BMI’s Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index
Central Asia Political Overview
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Kazakhstan’s Armed Forces
Kyrgyzstan’s Armed Forces
Tajikistan’s Armed Forces
Turkmenistan’s Armed Forces
Uzbekistan’s Armed Forces
International Deployments
  Table: Central Asia Foreign Developments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
  Table: Kazakhstan’s Armed Forces, 2002-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
  Table: Kazakhstan’s Available Manpower for Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49)
  Table: Kazakhstan’s Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015
  Table: Kazakhstan’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
  Table: Kyrgyzstan’s Armed Forces, 2002-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
  Table: Kyrgyzstan’s Available Manpower for Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49)
  Table: Kyrgyzstan’s Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015
  Table: Kyrgyzstan’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
  Table: Tajikistan’s Armed Forces, 2002-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
  Table: Tajikistan’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49)
  Table: Tajikistan’s Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015
  Table: Tajikistan’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP (US$mn), 2008-2015
  Table: Turkmenistan’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
  Table: Turkmenistan’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49)
  Table: Turkmenistan’s Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015
  Table: Turkmenistan’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2015( US$mn)
  Table: Uzbekistan’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
  Table: Uzbekistan’s Available Manpower for Military Services (2008-2015)
  Table: Uzbekistan’s Defence Expenditure, 2008 - 2015
  Table: Uzbekistan’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP (US$mn), 2008-2015
Macroeconomic Outlook
Kazakhstan’s Macroeconomic Outlook
  Table: Kazakhstan – Macroeconomic Activity, 2008-2015
Kyrgyzstan’s Macroeconomic Outlook
  Table: Kyrgyzstan – Macroeconomic Activity, 2008-2015
Tajikistan’s Macroeconomic Outlook
  Table: Tajikistan – Macroeconomic Activity, 2008-2015
Turkmenistan’s Macroeconomic Outlook
  Table: Turkmenistan - Economic Activity, 2008-2015
Uzbekistan’s Macroeconomic Outlook
  Table: Uzbekistan – Macroeconomic Activity, 2008-2015
Company Profiles
Chkalov Tashkent Industrial Aircraft Association (TAPiCH)
GE International Operations
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
  Table: Methodology
Sources .100
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