Iran Defence and Security Report Q2 2014

Date: January 29, 2014
Pages: 106
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: I65185631DDEN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

The report examines the trends in Iran's current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. The report's general conclusion is that, despite the domestic and diplomatic respite President Hassan Rouhani's tentative engagement with the US and the West may bring, Iran faces extreme economic and security challenges. Primarily, the fact that Israel has rejected the ongoing international overtures to Tehran means Iran is still at risk (albeit unlikely) of a unilateral strike from Israel. Other risks partly stem from Iran's controversial nuclear programme and also from its unpopular support for the Assad regime in Syria. International sanctions have gutted Iran's oil exports, which have now sunk to less than half of their usual level. However, given the improvement in international relations caused by Iran's engagement with West, BMI has revised the real GDP growth forecasts this quarter, and is projecting an improved performance in real terms in 2014, up from our previous forecast of 2.4% growth. Iran's economy will return to growth in 2014, as improving relations with the West and better macroeconomic management, coupled with low base effects, will lead to an improved outlook for exports and increased business and consumer confidence.

Given this tangible benefit from a military detente with the West, Iran's leadership ? subject to the veto of its ideologically led Supreme Leader ? may be pragmatically weighing up the supposed benefits of continuing its pursuit of nuclear weapons. The US hopes that this extreme economic pressure, combined with the build-up of military assets in the region, will encourage Iran to continue with the tentative diplomatic steps seen over the last quarter. This has somewhat stymied Israeli hawks' enthusiasm for a military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities.
BMI Industry View
Iran Security SWOT
Iran Defence & Security SWOT
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
Defence Expenditure
  Table: Iran Defence Expenditure, (2012-2018)
  Table: Iran Expenditure Scenario (2012-2018): Changing % Of Government Expenditure (US$mn), 2012-2018
Armed Forces
  Table: Iran Armed Forces ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated), 2001-2010
  Table: Iran Manpower Available For Military Service (aged 16-49 unless otherwise stated), 2010-2017
Defence Sector Production
Macroeconomic Forecasts
  Table: Iran - Economic Activity
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
MENA Security Risk Ratings
  Table: Middle East And Africa Regional Security Ratings
  Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Iran Security Risk Ratings
Market Overview
Iran Defence Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Industry Trends & Developments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Arms Trade Overview
Iran Security Overview
Domestic Threats
Regional Threats
International Threats
Company Profile
China Great Wall Industry Corporation
Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant
Aerospace Industries Organization
Ammunition & Metallurgy Industries Group
Defence Industries Organization
Iran Electronics Industries
Regional Overview
Middle East And Africa Security Overview
Global Industry Overview
Global Political Outlook
  Table: Election Timetable, 2014
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
  Table: Security Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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