Croatia Defence & Security Report Q2 2011

Date: March 22, 2011
Pages: 72
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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The prognosis for Croatia’s accession to the EU is no clearer this quarter and this continues to hinder the outlook for the defence sector. The country looks set to join within the next four years but with severe financial difficulties already growing in the economy the exact date may have a huge impact on the industry’s fortunes.

Over the long run, tackling corruption will remain the government's most important task, in our view. This is well reflected in our long-term political risk ratings, where Croatia scores 68.3/100 for the characteristics of policy sub-component, compared to a 78.2/100 overall rating.

We now expect the Croatian economy to recover in 2011, posting 1.8% growth. This follows a second full year of negative growth in 2010, with the ongoing dire outlook for private consumption. This will be driven primarily by low base effects and the positive contribution of net exports due to weak domestic demand. Over the longer run, Croatia should still post relatively robust trend growth, though we caution that it will remain below pre-crisis levels. The implication of low growth and – we believe – a reduction in spending as a percentage of overall economic activity is that it will likely be difficult for Croatia’s indigenous suppliers of arms and munitions to expand their businesses.

Plans to modernise the armed forces and boost the domestic military industry’s role have been outlined in a strategic framework published by the Ministry of Defence and the Croatian Armed Forces in early 2010. A gradual reduction of troop numbers from the peaks reached during war-time is expected to coincide with NATO-style structuring of forces and capabilities. To date, a lack of willingness to cut jobs in a government area – when the economic situation and unemployment make it politically unpopular – has hindered progress.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Croatia Security SWOT
Croatia Defence Industry SWOT
Croatia Political SWOT
Croatia Economic SWOT
Croatia Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
The United States
Japan And The Koreas
Egypt, Saudi Arabia And Pakistan
Wild Card In Global Politics
Europe Security Overview
Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
Europe In A Global Context
Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade
Security Risk Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
  Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
  Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Croatia’s Security Risk Ratings
City Terrorism Rating
  Table: BMI’s Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Security Overview
Internal Security
Small Arms And Light Weapons Proliferation
External Security Situation
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
  Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2007 (Including conscripted, ‘000)
International Deployments And Joint Exercises
  Table: Croatia’s Deployments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Recent Changes
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Procurement Trends And Developments
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Key Players In Croatia’s Defence Sector
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
  Table: Croatia’s Armed Forces, 2002-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
  Table: Croatia’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2008-2015 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Defence Expenditure
  Table: Croatia’s Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015
  Table: Croatia’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
Defence Trade
  Table: Croatia’s Defence Exports, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
  Table: Croatia's Defence Imports (US$mn); 2008-2015
  Table: Croatia's Defence Trade Balance (US$mn); 2008-2015
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Outlook
  Table: Croatia – Macroeconomic Activity, 2008-2015
Company Profiles
Duro Dakovic
Elmech Razvoj
Kraljevica Shipyard
Country Snapshot: Croatia Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
  Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
  Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
  Table: Education, 2000-2003
  Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
  Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004
  Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2010 (US$)
  Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2010
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
  Table: Methodology
Sources 72
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