Chile Defence Report 2013

Date: October 24, 2012
Pages: 97
US$ 1,175.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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Chile continued to experience widespread disaffection with government in 2012, leading to a number of protests that saw police forces resort to teargas and water cannons to disperse demonstrators. While the country’s external security conditions remain relatively stable and benign, Chile’s internal security environment continues to be threatened by the dissonance between Sebastián Piñera’s rightist administration and large sections of society demanding social and economic changes.

Dissatisfaction with the government's education and energy policies intensified in early 2012. The government's credibility suffered major blows as clashes with students over reforms to the country's education system resumed, and new tensions emerged between the administration and residents of the remote Aysén region.

After a pause during the summer months, student demonstrations resumed in March 2012, with thousands of Chileans taking to the streets of Santiago demanding high-quality public education and the reinstatement of those who had been excluded from schools for protesting. Chilean police clashed with students in Santiago's main avenue, where anywhere between 2,000 and 7,000 students participated. Another student demonstration in May 2012 was claimed by organisers to have attracted some 100,000 people. Meanwhile, a mainly peaceful demonstration of between 3,500 and 5,000 people in late 2012 in honour of the victims of General Augusto Pinochet's military government also turned violent.

Social unrest has also intensified in the remote southern region of Aysén, where hundreds of people staged demonstrations, road blocks and fires to demand lower fuel costs, higher investment in key infrastructure, and the cancellation of the HidroAysén dam project. While local residents and environmental groups will likely continue to voice their opposition to the dam, Piñera has repeatedly underlined ‘deep weaknesses’ in the country's energy matrix, suggesting that the project will go ahead as planned.

As of mid-2012 there appears to be little President Piñera can do to boost his very low approval rating for the duration of his tenure. However, it does not appear that his current low popularity will have a significant impact on the outcome of the November 2013 presidential election, as the left-wing opposition is struggling to gain traction with the electorate.

BMI expects defence expenditure to grow by 8.062.04% to CLP3.884.41trn (US$8.358.66bn) in 2012, as growth edges down from 19.2313.86% jump in the previous year and a much sharper 38.15% seen in 2010.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Chile Security SWOT
Chile Defence Industry SWOT
Chile Political SWOT
Chile Economic SWOT
Chile Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Latin America Security Overview
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
Security Risk Analysis
BMI's Regional Security Ratings
    Table: Latin America Security Ratings
    Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Ratings
Chile’s Security Risk Rating
City Terrorism Rating
    Table: BMI Americas City Terrorism Index
    Table: Chile Political Overview
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
Chile Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
External Security Situation
Chile-US Relations
Chile-Peru Relations
Chile-Bolivia Relations
Latest Developments
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
International Deployments
  Table Foreign Deployments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Procurement Trends And Developments
Latest Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
    Table: Chile’s Military Personnel, 2001-2009 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
    Table: Chile’s Manpower Available For Military Services, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Government Spending
    Table: Chile’s Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017
    Table: Chile’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
Defence Trade
    Table: Chile’s Defence Exports, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
    Table: Chile’s Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
    Table: Chile’s Trade Balance, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
Macroeconomic Forecast
    Table: Chile – Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape
    Table: Key Players – Chile Defence Sector
Company Profiles
Astilleros y Maestranzas de la Armada
Empresa Nacional de Aeronautica (Enaer)
Fabrica y Maestranzas del Ejercito (Famae)
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
    Table: Methodology
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