Argentina Defence Report 2013

Date: October 24, 2012
Pages: 89
US$ 1,175.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: AF48C54437BEN

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President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner will probably regard her landslide victory in Argentina's October 2011 elections as an expression of approval for her handling of economic policy rather than as an occasion to implement the structural reforms needed to reverse macroeconomic imbalances that BMI sees increasingly fostering internal security weaknesses.

Fernández's electoral success is largely due to her administration's track record of strong economic growth, rising living standards for the poor and low unemployment, measures achieved through expansionary fiscal policies at the expense of inflation. Protests across Argentina in early September 2012 do indicate a degree of popular dissatisfaction with persistently high inflation, strict currency controls, and the Fernández presidency in general. This combination of factors represents a significant internal security threat for Argentina, which is arguably more substantive than the country’s tense relationship with the UK over ownership the Falkland Islands.

Political tensions have again arisen between the UK and Argentina over control of the British Overseas Territory of the Falkland Islands in the first half of 2012. The most recent ructions have been caused by the confluence of the approaching 30th anniversary of the Falklands War; the posting of second-in-line to the British throne Prince William to the islands as a helicopter pilot; and continued drilling for oil off the coast of the Falklands under UK exploration licences. There could yet be a further increase in tensions as well as additional attempts by Argentina to rally Latin American support for their claim, although at this point a return to hostilities is unlikely.

In procurement developments, the government signed agreements regarding the production of radar and avionics for a number of aircraft in September 2012. Agreements were signed between FAdeA, National Institute of Industrial Technology (INTI) and INVAP, in line with the government’s bid to support and sustain domestic technological capacity in production. The government reiterated its support for developing the country’s indigenous productive ability, arguing that Argentina’s national defence could only be ensured by domestic production of military assets.

Argentina’s defence spending is likely to expand by 6.95% to ARS16.2bn (US$3.53bn) in 2012, marking 0.71% of GDP (in local currency). Although BMI sees defence expenditure expanding to ARS34.48bn (US$4.69bn) by 2021, spending is not likely to keep abreast of economic growth.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Argentina Security SWOT
Argentina Defence Industry SWOT
Argentina Political SWOT
Argentina Economic SWOT
Argentina Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Latin America Security Overview
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
Security Risk Analysis
BMI's Regional Security Ratings
    Table: Latin America Security Ratings
    Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Ratings
Argentina Security Risk Rating
City Terrorism Rating
    Table: BMI Americas City Terrorism Index
Argentina Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
Drugs Trafficking
Military And Human Rights
External Security Situation
    Table: Regional Insurgent Groups
Argentina-Brazil Relations
Argentina-Uruguay Relations
Argentina-US Relations
Argentina-Chile Relations
Argentina-UK Relations
Relations With Asia
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
International Deployments
    Table: Argentina’s Foreign Deployments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
    Table: Key Players In Argentina’s Defence Sector
Procurement Trends And Developments
Naval Developments
Latest Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
    Table: Argentina Military Personnel ('000, unless otherwise stated), 2001-2009
Government Spending
    Table: Argentina Manpower Available For Military Services (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated), 2010-2017
Defence Trade
    Table: Argentina Defence Exports, 2010-2017 (US$mn),
    Table: Argentina Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
    Table: Argentina Defence Trade Balance, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
Macroeconomic Forecast
Company Profile
Lockheed Martin Aircraft Argentina SA (LMAASA)
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
    Table: Methodology
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