Ukraine Tourism Report Q4 2015

Date: September 30, 2015
Pages: 51
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Following the start of the conflict in Ukraine in early 2014, tourist arrivals collapsed. Although there have been some moves towards peace agreements and a ceasefire earlier in 2015, the tensions continue, and we do not expect to see a reduction in the country's instability over the remainder of 2015. This elevated security risk will, in our view, continue to deter tourists over 2016. Moreover, as Russia was formerly one of the largest source markets, the continued bilateral tensions between it and Ukraine, in conjunction with Russia's own economic tribulations (due to sanctions and lower oil prices) will further depress the Ukrainian tourism sector's growth prospects over the remainder of 2015. We therefore forecast total arrivals to continue their downwards trajectory.

The occupation of Crimea and Sevastopol (by Russia) and Donetsk and Luhansk (by separatists) has had a major impact on Ukrainian tourism, as not only are foreign tourists deterred by the heightened security risks, but the Crimea region was a key tourism hotspot, and its loss has had a substantial detrimental impact on the appeal of the wider Ukrainian tourism sector, both for domestic and international markets. However, although weighing on growth in the short term, we believe this development could be a boon over the longer term, as the need for diversification encouraged heavy investment into tourism infrastructure in various other locations, opening up the country's tourism market and expanding its overall offering.
BMI Industry View
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Inbound Tourism
  Table: Inbound Tourism (Ukraine 2012-2019)
  Table: Ukraine Inbound Tourism, Top 10 Markets by Arrivals ('000), 2012-2019
Outbound Departures
  Table: Outbound Tourism (Ukraine 2012-2019)
  Table: Ukraine Outbound Tourism, Top 10 Markets by Departures ('000), 2012-2019
  Table: Receipts for Transport and Travel (Ukraine 2012-2019)
  Table: Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value (Ukraine 2012-2019)
  Table: Hotel Accommodation (Ukraine 2012-2019)
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Tourism Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Central And Eastern Europe - Tourism Risk/Reward Index
Security Risk
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Domestic Hotels
International Hotels
Global Industry Overview
  Table: Global Tourism Market - Key Themes
Global Assumptions
Global Macro Outlook
  Table: Global Forecasts, 2014-2019
  Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2014-2017 (% change y-o-y)
Developed States
  Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014-2017
Emerging Markets
  Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014-2017
  Table: BMI Versus Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2015 And 2016 (%)
Demographic Forecast
  Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ukraine 1990-2025)
  Table: Key Population Ratios (Ukraine 1990-2025)
  Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Ukraine 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group (Ukraine 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group % (Ukraine 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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