Mexico Tourism Report Q1 2015

Date: January 7, 2015
Pages: 55
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: M94698964BCEN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI expects tourist arrivals to grow steadily in 2015, albeit slightly below 2014 levels. This is due to falling arrivals from Europe, as well as a slow pickup in arrivals from the US.

As Mexico's tourism industry is heavily dependent on arrivals from the neighbouring US, the outlook for the US has a major impact on our forecasts for Mexican tourism. We are forecasting GDP growth of 2.7% in the US in 2015, up from 2.3% in 2014. We expect that this will feed through into US arrivals of 6.1mn to Mexico in 2015, up from 6.0mn in 2014. We also note that Mexican visitors to the US will grow by a higher rate in 2015, by 5.9% to 21.7mn. We believe that this reflects the growing wealth and middle class in Mexico and the increase in short-term cross-border tourism.

Key forecasts for Mexico's tourism industry:
  • BMI forecasts air passenger arrivals will grow strongly over the forecast period, to 39.2mn passengers in 2015 and then rising to 45.0mn by 2018.
  • BMI is forecasting arrivals of 12.1mn in 2015, representing growth of 2.0%. The growth rate will then pick up to 2.8% in 2016, to 12.4mn.
BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Inbound Tourism
  Table: Inbound Tourism (Mexico 2011-2018)
  Table: Inbound Tourism, Top 10 Markets By Arrivals, '000 (Mexico 2011-2018)
Outbound Tourism
  Table: Outbound Tourism (Mexico 2011-2018)
  Table: Top 10 Outbound Tourism Destinations, '000 (Mexico 2011-2018)
  Table: Receipts for Transport and Travel (Mexico 2011-2018)
  Table: Breakdown of Methods of Tourist Travel (Mexico 2011-2018)
  Table: Hotel Accommodation (Mexico 2011-2018)
  Table: Hotels and Restaurants Industry Value (Mexico 2011-2018)
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Tourism Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Americas Tourism Risk/Reward Index
Security Risk
Market Overview
  Table: Global Hotel Groups' Presence In Mexico
  Table: Mexico's Major Air Transport Infrastructure Projects
Competitive Landscape
Grupo Posadas
Karisma Hotels
Melia Hotels International
Palace Resorts
Playa Hotels And Resorts
Global Industry Overview
Tourism Global Industry Overview
Global Assumptions
  Table: Global Assumptions, 2013-2018
  Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2013-2016 (% change y-o-y)
Developed States
  Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013-2016
Emerging Markets
  Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2013-2016
  Table: BMI Versus Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2014 And 2015 (%)
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
  Table: Population Headline Indicators (Mexico 1990-2025)
  Table: Key Population Ratios (Mexico 1990-2025)
  Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Mexico 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group (Mexico 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group % (Mexico 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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