Egypt Tourism Report Q3 2016

Date: September 3, 2016
Pages: 32
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The Egyptian tourism industry, once a thriving destination for European holidaymakers, has suffered serious setbacks in recent months. High-profile terrorist attacks on tourism destinations, geopolitical uncertainty, domestic political conflict and the downing of a Russian civilian airliner and subsequent flight suspensions have all negatively impacted tourism prospects. The Red Sea resort areas in particular have seen a massive fall in occupancy rates and, while travel to Cairo is still relatively strong, overall we expect to see a significant contraction in international tourism arrivals in 2016. Market fundamentals remain solid, however, with a well-developed hotel market and broad range of attractions ensuring that once the security issues are resolved and flights resumed, Egypt will most likely see a return to positive growth. Nevertheless, we hold a cautiously optimistic view and retain the position that major security challenges and insecurity hurdles must be addressed before tourists begin to return in massive numbers.

Key Updates & Forecasts
  • The unexplained downing of EgyptAir MS804, which was travelling from Paris to Cairo, has further upset a volatile security situation in Egypt, fuelling fears of another aviation terrorist attack.
  • Several airlines have extended the ban on flights to Sharm el-Sheikh. Thomas Cook has extended its restriction through to October 31. EasyJet currently plans to relaunch flights from London Stansted to Sharm el-Sheikh in May, though flights from other UK airports will remain suspended.
  • There are reports that Russia is negotiating with Egypt to resume civilian flights to the country. Although a positive sign, we also note the reports that several major airlines including British Airways and Emirates have threatened to halt airline ticket sales in Egypt due to issues relating to the blockage of revenue.
  • As a result of these developments and in light of ongoing security issues, we are forecasting a fall in international arrivals of 7.1% in 2016. We have revised our forecast projections and believe that growth will not resume until 2019. Any further terrorist attacks or deterioration in the regional security situation will lead to another downwards revision of our forecast.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Key Forecasts (Egypt 2013-2020)
Industry Forecast
  Table: Inbound Tourism (Egypt 2013-2020)
  Table: Tourism Receipts (Egypt 2013-2020)
  Table: Hotel Accommodation (Egypt 2013-2020)
  Table: Tourist Departures and Consumption (Egypt 2013-2020)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Tourism Risk/Reward Index
  Table: MENA Tourism Industry Risk/Reward Index
Security Risk
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Domestic Hotel Groups
  Table: Domestic Hotel Groups
International Hotel Groups
  Table: International Hotel Groups
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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