Caribbean Tourism Report Q3 2016

Date: June 15, 2016
Pages: 48
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Arrivals growth in the Caribbean will pick up to 2.5% in 2016, reflecting improved visitor numbers from Europe and North America. The Dominican Republic, St Eustatius and Cuba are expecting the highest rate of arrivals growth, but all tourism markets except St Vincent will experience growth in 2016. However, the outbreak of the Zika virus from late 2015 could pose downside risks to 2016 arrivals forecasts.

We currently expect arrivals to the Caribbean to grow by 2.5% in 2016, to 33.5mn, reflecting an improvement from growth of only 0.7% in 2015. We expect the Dominican Republic, Cuba, St Eustatius and St Lucia to post the highest level of arrivals growth in 2016, at around 6%, but we note the positive sign that all Caribbean countries except St Vincent will experience arrivals growth in 2016, for the first time since the downturn.

We hold an especially positive outlook on Cuba, given steady progress in the renewal of relations with the US. This has already reaped benefits in terms of tourism, transport and hotel developments. President Obama has relaxed long-standing restrictions on US nationals visiting Cuba, meaning that Cuba can expect to benefit from increased US tourism. In addition, an aviation agreement signed in early 2016 paves the way for direct US-Cuba commercial flights, while a ferry service between Florida and Cuba. Moreover, in April, US hotel companies Starwood and Marriott announced plans to expand into the Cuban hotel sector. Altogether, we believe that this paves the way for long-term US investment into Cuba's hotel sector, which will present considerable opportunities over the forecast period.
BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Regional Forecast
  Table: Caribbean Inbound Tourism, 2012-2020
  Table: Caribbean Country-By-Country Breakdown Of Arrivals, Excluding Cruise, 2014-2020
  Table: Caribbean Arrivals By Method & Region, 2012-2020
  Table: Caribbean Transport & Travel Receipts, 2012-2020
  Table: Caribbean Hotel Accommodation, 2012-2020
  Table: Caribbean Hotels & Restaurants Industry Value, 2012-2020
Country-Specific Forecasts
The Bahamas
  Table: Bahamas Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020
The Dominican Republic
  Table: Dominican Republic Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020
  Table: Jamaica Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020
  Table: Aruba Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020
  Table: Cuba Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020
The Cayman Islands
  Table: Cayman Islands Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020
Puerto Rico
  Table: Puerto Rico Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020
  Table: Barbados Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2020
St Lucia
  Table: St Lucia Hotel Accommodation Figures, 2012-2019
Trinidad & Tobago
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Tourism Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Caribbean - Tourism Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Domestic Hotel Groups
  Table: Domestic Hotel Groups
International Hotel Groups
  Table: International Hotel Groups
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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