Colombia Freight Transport Report 2016

Date: November 11, 2015
Pages: 59
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: Download
ID: C24D60026ADEN

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BMI View: Despite a subdued outlook for Colombia's economy, we expect steady increases in agricultural output will ensure tepid growth in freight volumes in the coming years. We caution that a more robust expansion will be prevented by a slowdown in the consumer sector, weak global commodities and a lacklustre external picture. As a result, we expect the road and rail will display the largest gains vis-a-vis air freight.

The Colombian economy is set for a sharp slowdown in the coming quarters, as the country struggles in the face of weaker trade dynamics and slowing household spending. Indeed, after real GDP growth of 4.6% in 2014, we forecast expansions of just 2.9% and 3.4% in 2015 and 2016 respectively. Moreover, we expect real GDP growth will remain weak over the coming five years, averaging 3.4% compared to 4.8% in the past half decade, as the impact of weaker oil prices and falling crude production continue to temper the country's economic outlook. This will have a notable impact on the consumer sector, as lower employment prospects will dent disposable income. In turn, demand for road and air freight will be impacted.
BMI Industry View
Freight Transport
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Trade Forecast
  Table: Trade Overview (Colombia 2013-2020)
  Table: Key Trade Indicators (Colombia 2013-2020)
Road Freight Forecast
  Table: Road Freight (Colombia 2012-2019)
Rail Freight Forecast
  Table: Rail Freight (Colombia 2012-2019)
Air Freight Forecast
  Table: Air Freight (Colombia 2012-2019)
Market Overview
Company Profile
Cerrejon (Logistics)
Avianca (Cargo)
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Politics
  Table: Political Overview
Oil Price Outlook
Europe - Brent On Board For A Bumpy Ride
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
  Table: Colombia - Key Economic Indicators
  Table: Colombia - Private Consumption Forecasts
  Table: Colombia - Government Consumption Forecasts
  Table: Colombia - Fixed Investment Forecasts
  Table: Colombia - Net Exports Forecasts
Demographic Forecast
  Table: Population Headline Indicators (Colombia 1990-2025)
  Table: Key Population Ratios (Colombia 1990-2025)
  Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Colombia 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group (Colombia 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group % (Colombia 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
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