Malaysia Defence and Security Report Q1 2011

Date: January 22, 2011
Pages: 96
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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The ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition is likely to remain in power after the next general elections, which is due in 2013, although it could be called as early as 2011. Prime Minister Najib Razak, who also leads the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO, the leading partner in BN) has implemented a number of official initiatives since assuming the top post – namely the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) and 1Malaysia – with the aim of helping to improve Malaysia's economy and mend ties between the country's various ethnic groups, respectively. While we doubt the efficacy of these policies, we believe Najib's efforts will have a morale-boosting effect on the electorate, at least in the short term.

Piracy in South East Asia is still a major security issue, especially in the Malacca Strait. and waters around Indonesia, near Malaysia. The Strait is one of the world's main maritime ‘chokepoints.’ There had been fears that terrorists could block the channel. However, in 2009 there were only seven attacks for the whole year.

On July 20, defence minister Zahid Hamidi announced that Malaysia will use more offsets and financial packages, such as investment, for new defence equipment procurement. This will apply to Malaysia’s new five-year plan for defence purchasing, which begins in January 2011. Further, the government is to establish the region’s first extensive defence and security technology park in Sungkai, Perak. The park will contain resources for manufacturing, support industries, and research & development. Construction begins in October.

The Malaysian Armed Forces is planning spend MYR2.2bn on three multi-role support ships (MRSS) to provide faster humanitarian aid and disaster relief. Five shipbuilders from several European and Asian countries will build one of the three MRSSs. The other two will be constructed locally. The MRSS, containing a helicopter pad, will supply food, medicines, clothing and other utilities to disaster zones.

Malaysia's Q310 real GDP growth came in at a 5.3% year-on-year (y-o-y), decelerating from the 8.9% figure registered in Q210. In particular, the domestic economy – led by private consumption and investment growth – performed especially well. This helped compensate for the external sector's drag on overall expansion due to relative growth outperformance in imports versus exports, as well as lower government consumption. We expect the positive growth momentum to persist well into Q410 and enable the country to register full-year expansion of 6.4%. Going forward, we believe the pace of economic growth will moderate significantly in 2011 and 2012. Indeed, we expect the external sector to be adversely affected by a region-wide economic slump, dragged down by a slowdown in Chinese growth.

Therefore, we forecast 2011 real GDP growth to come in at a still-respectable 4.0%, before accelerating slightly to 4.3% in 2012 in line with a regional economic recovery.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Malaysia Security SWOT
Malaysia Defence Industry SWOT
Malaysia Political SWOT
Malaysia Economic SWOT
Malaysia Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Global Hotspots
Global Election Timetable, 2010 And 2011
Latin America: More Of The Same
Western Europe
Central Europe
South Eastern Europe
Russia And The Former Soviet Union
Middle East: Mostly The Same Old Challenges
Sub-Saharan Africa: Definitive Elections Pending
Asia: Accommodating A More Powerful China
Wild Cards
Global Security Outlook
South East Asia Security Overview
Political Overview
Domestic Politics I
Domestic Politics II
Long-Term Political Outlook
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
  Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
  Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Malaysia’s Risk Ratings
City Terrorism Rating
  Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index
Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
  Table: Insurgent Groups
External Security Situation
Territorial Disputes
Insurgent And Terrorist Activity
  Table: Piracy Attacks And Attempted Attacks, 1996-2006
Bilateral and Multilateral Relations
Armed Forces and Government Spending
Armed Forces
  Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2010 Forecast (including conscripted, ‘000 personnel)
Defence Budget
Multilateral And Bilateral Defence Relations
International Deployment
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Arms Trade Overview
Procurement Trends and Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
  Table: Malaysia’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (‘000 personnel)
  Table: Malaysia’s Defence Personnel – Available Manpower For Military Services; 2008-2015
  Table: Malaysia’s Government Defence Figures, 2008-2015
  Table: Malaysia’s Defence Expenditure: % Of GDP; 2008-2015
  Table: Malaysia’s Defence Exports; 2008-2015 (US$ mn)
  Table: Malaysia’s Defence Imports; 2008-2015 (US$ mn)
  Table: Malaysia’s Defence Trade Balance; 2008-2015 (US$ mn)
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Outlook
  Table: Malaysia - Economic Activity; 2008-2015
Company Profiles
Composite Technology Research Malaysia (CTRM)
Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering (MMHE)
SME Ordnance
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
  Table: Methodology
Sources 96
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