Kazakhstan and Central Asia Defence and Security Report Q4 2010

Date: August 22, 2010
Pages: 102
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

Download PDF Leaflet

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

It had been initially hoped that the regime change in Kyrgyzstan would be bloodless and not lead to any marked increase in regional tensions.

Those hopes have not been realised. According to a Kyrgyz Ministry of Health statement on July 20 the death toll from the political violence is 355, with 1.080 hospitalised. Deputy Prime Minister Azimbek Beknazarov, however, at least 895 people have been killed. The UNHCR reported on 21 July that some 75,000 people are still displaced.

There is a definite ethnic character to the violence. The deposed President had come from the south of the country where almost half of the population is ethnically Uzbek. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Navi Pillay, has reported that Uzbeks are being systematically targeted and many are being pressured to leave Kyrgyzstan.

The five Central Asia Republics had all been part of the Soviet Union. During that time these ethnic tensions remained internal matters. Stalin had deliberately drawn internal boundaries in such a way that facilitated a principle of divide and rule. Now though they represent potential flashpoints between independent states.

Kyrgyzstan had asked Russia for military assistance. While Kyrgyzstan is a close ally of Russia and Russia had been the first country to recognise the new regime following the overthrow of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, Russia has declined to become directly involved. Russia instead sees the need to maintain the balance of its interests in the region. It has for instance been drawing closer to Uzbekistan after some years of coldness. While Uzbekistan needs to be seen to support actions to protect fellow Uzbeks in Kyrgyzstan, this does not mean that it would welcome Russian army forces on its border. While there are continuing tensions in the region with some outbreaks of violence, we do not foresee the current troubles leading to either the fall of other regimes in the region or to clashes between countries. Any potential unrest is more likely to have an Islamist driver. The Ferghana Valley that is divided between Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan is considered to be a breeding ground for Islamic militancy. Groups such as Tablighi Jamaat and Bayaat have been able to find support in this poor region and in light of the war in Afghanistan.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Central Asia Security SWOT
Central Asian Defence Industry SWOT
Central Asia Political SWOT
Global Defence Overview
Global Hotspots
    Table: Election Timetable, H210-2011
United States: Obama To Be Tested By Mid-Term Elections
Latin America: Beyond Lula
Western Europe: All About Austerity
Central Europe: New Governments To Be Tested
South-East Europe: Turkey's Ongoing Evolution
Russia And The Former Soviet Union: Focus On Security
Middle East: Ongoing Challenges
Sub-Saharan Africa: The Election Conundrum
Asia: The Usual Risks Prevail
Wild Cards To Watch
Security Risk Ratings
    Table: Europe And Central Asia Security Risk Ratings
    Table: Europe And Central Asia State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Central Asia Conflict Risk Rating
City Terrorism Ratings
    Table: BMI’s Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index
Central Asia Political Overview
Central Asia Regional Security
The Geopolitical Importance Of Central Asia
Challenges And Threats To Central Asia’s Stability
    Table: Eurasian Organisations
    Table: Central Asia Trade Patterns, 2007
Recent Developments
Islamist Extremism And Transnational Threats
    Table: Central Asia Insurgent Groups
Internal Instability
Inter-Regional Competition And Cooperation
Regional Organisations
Land Borders
Natural Resources
Regional Military Relations With Russia, China And The US
The US Presence
Operation Enduring Freedom
Russia And China In Central Asia
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Kazakhstan’s Armed Forces
Kyrgyzstan’s Armed Forces
Tajikistan’s Armed Forces
Turkmenistan’s Armed Forces
Uzbekistan’s Armed Forces
International Deployments
    Table: Central Asia Foreign Developments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
    Table: Kazakhstan’s Armed Forces, 2007-2014 (‘000 personnel)
    Table: Kazakhstan’s Defence Expenditure, 2007-2014
    Table: Kyrgyzstan’s Armed Forces, 2007-2014 (‘000 personnel)
    Table: Kyrgyzstan’s Defence Expenditure, 2007-2014
    Table: Tajikistan’s Armed Forces, 2007-2014 (‘000 personnel)
    Table: Tajikistan’s Defence Expenditure, 2007-2014
    Table: Turkmenistan’s Armed Forces, 2007-2014 (‘000 personnel)
    Table: Turkmenistan’s Defence Expenditure, 2007-2014
    Table: Uzbekistan’s Armed Forces, 2007-2014 (‘000 personnel)
    Table: Uzbekistan’s Defence Expenditure, 2007-2014
Macroeconomic Outlook
    Table: Kazakhstan - Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Kyrgyzstan’s Macroeconomic Outlook
    Table: Kyrgyzstan – Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Tajikistan’s Macroeconomic Outlook
    Table: Tajikistan - Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Turkmenistan’s Macroeconomic Outlook
    Table: Turkmenistan – Economic Activity, 2007-2014
    Table: Uzbekistan – Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Company Profiles
Chkalov Tashkent Industrial Aircraft Association (TAPiCH)
GE International Operations
BMI Methodology
Kazakhstan and Central Asia Defence & Security Report Q4 2010
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 5
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
    Table: Methodology
Skip to top

Ask Your Question

Kazakhstan and Central Asia Defence and Security Report Q4 2010
Company name*:
Contact person*:
Request invoice
Your enquiry:
Please click on a Check Box below to confirm you are not a robot: