Italy Defence and Security Report Q3 2012

Date: July 3, 2012
Pages: 91
US$ 1,175.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI’s Italy Defence & Security Report for Q312 examines the country’s defence posture, defence procurement and defence industry. The report seeks to examine how the Italian government is attempting to balance the defence budget amid the sluggish performance of the country’s economy.

The report details the Italian armed forces structure, including its order of battle. In addition, it examines the government’s efforts to streamline the size of the armed forces, and better configure them to perform out-of-area operations. The report also discusses Italy’s long term procurement plans, and the country’s recent procurement trends.

Italy is faced with a number of distinct challenges with regards to its defence sector in the near future.

The country is performing a protracted reorientation of its strategic posture. Essentially, this is reconfiguring the Italian armed forces from their erstwhile NATO posture which sought to defend the southern part of the European continent against Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact aggression, into an adaptable and agile force able to rapidly project power beyond Italy’s borders. For this strategic aspiration to become a reality, the Italian government is pursuing in a number of procurement projects which seek to improve the procurement platforms which enhance the armed force’s power projection capabilities and provide force multiplier capability in theatre. Along with pursuing these objectives, the Italian government is, at the same time, trying to reach these aspirations in period of profound economic stagnation which is having an adverse effect on the country’s economy.

Over the last quarter, BMI has made a number of changes to its forecasts. These include:
  • Adjustments to the defence budget allocated for procurement between 2012-2014.
  • Details of the number of troops that the defence ministry wishes to maintain to support operations overseas.
  • An outline of expected fleet size reductions that will affect the Italian navy as a result of budget cutbacks.
  • Details regarding the expected reductions in the size of the army over the next five to ten years.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Italy Security SWOT
Italy Political SWOT
Italy Economic SWOT
Italy Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Major Risks Looming In 2012-2013
Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korean Peninsula
  Table: Election Timetable, Q212-Q113
Wild Cards To Watch
Europe Security Overview
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
Europe In A Global Context
Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade
Eurozone Analysis
What If The Eurozone Collapses? Political Risks Assessed
Security Risk Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
  Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
  Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Political Outlook
Monti To Serve Out Term Despite Rising Opposition
  Table: Italy’s Political Overview
Italy Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
Organised Crime
Latest Developments
Timeline: Internal Threats
  Table: Insurgent Groups
External Security Situation
International Terrorism
Latest Developments
Timeline: External Threats
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
Defence Posture
International Deployments
  Table: Italy’s Foreign Deployments
Coordination And Joint Operations
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Arms Trade
Defence And Procurement
  Table: Italy’s Key Defence Players
Timeline: Defence And Procurement
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
  Table: Italy’s Armed Forces Personnel, 2002-2009 (’000, unless otherwise stated)
  Table: Italy’s Manpower Available For Military Service, 2011-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Defence Expenditure
  Table: Italy’s Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016
  Table: Italy’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Defence Trade
  Table: Italy’s Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
  Table: Italy’s Defence Exports, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
  Table: Italy’s Defence Trade Balance, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Forecast
  Table: Italy – GDP By Expenditure, 2008-2016 (%)
Company Profiles
Italy Demographic Outlook
Italy's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Italy's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Italy's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Italy's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
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