Colombia Defence & Security Report Q2 2011

Date: March 22, 2011
Pages: 80
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: CD72784C363EN

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President Juan Manuel Santos took over from Álvaro Uribe after the election in August 2010. President Santos is expected to capitalise on the advances in domestic security made by Uribe in his fight against drug traffickers and insurgency groups – especially the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC).

On September 22 2010, government forces killed FARC’s senior military commander, Víctor Julio Suárez. President Santos said it was the ‘most resounding blow against the FARC in its entire history’, and was the ‘beginning of the end’ of the guerrillas. On November 15 2010, the army attacked a FARC compound in Nariño, leaving 14 dead.

However, Colombia still has to contend with many other new illegal armed groups and other criminal groups. A broad political and social coalition will be required to back President Santos in any major agenda for conflict resolution.

We expect diplomatic relations between Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela to continue improving throughout 2011, as President Santos adopts a more constructive political stance towards the Andean region. In November 2010, President Santos and Venezuelan President Chávez agreed on closer cooperation in their fight against drug-trafficking, as well as strengthening economic ties between the two countries.

Some tensions are likely to remain due to Santos's escalating assault against FARC. Moreover, we cannot rule out a sudden deterioration in relations, particularly if domestic political conditions in Venezuela and Ecuador suffer from the distortive economic policies pursued by their respective governments. Colombia has a vast income disparity – it is ranked as the sixth most unequal country in the world, topping the list for Latin America, according to the United Nations Development Programme. Given rapid economic growth and rising per capita income, the pressure for the authorities to step up social spending programmes and ensure a broader spread of wealth within the economy is likely to mount. That said, in light of the current administration's plans to post a balanced budget by 2014, such efforts may take a back seat in politics over the medium term, potentially raising the risk of disenchantment among the lower socio-economic strata of the electorate. Moreover, income inequality in Colombia is very much a symptom of an unequal distribution of land, as approximately 0.4% of landowners own 61% of rural land. Therefore, the structural nature of this political challenge offers no easy solution for any government, and we would not be surprised to see this problem drag on for a number of decades. Colombia’s indigenous defence suppliers are unimportant in a global context. Nevertheless, they should benefit from the continuing growth of the economy and a steady increase in defence spending as a percentage of GDP.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Colombia Security SWOT
Colombia Defence Industry SWOT
Colombia Political SWOT
Colombia Economic SWOT
Colombia Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
The United States
Japan And The Koreas
Egypt, Saudi Arabia And Pakistan
Wild Card In Global Politics
Latin America Security Overview
Latin America In A Global Context
Challenges And Threats To Security
The Role Of Outside Powers
Key Factors To Consider In The 2010s
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
  Table: Latin America Security Ratings
  Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Ratings
Colombia’s Security Risk Ratings
City Terrorism Rating
  Table: BMI’s Americas City Terrorism Index
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Domestic Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
Civil War
Paramilitary Demobilisation
FARC And Counter-Insurgency
External Security Situation
Colombia-US Relations
Colombia-Venezuela Relations
Colombia-Ecuador Relations
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
  Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2010 (including conscripted, ‘000 personnel)
International Deployment
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Procurement Trends And Developments
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Key Players In Colombia’s Defence Sector
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
  Table: Colombia’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Defence Expenditure
  Table: Colombia’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015
Defence Trade
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Forecast
Company Profiles
Industria Militar (Indumil)
Country Snapshot: Colombia Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
  Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
  Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
  Table: Education, 2002-2005
  Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
  Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
  Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
  Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
  Table: Methodology
Sources 80
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