Threats to Avastin - Targeting the VEGF Pathway

Date: April 22, 2010
Pages: 145
Price:
US$ 2,265.00
Publisher: Espicom Business Intelligence
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: TE60770E136EN
Leaflet:

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Threats to Avastin - Targeting the VEGF Pathway
Avastin is set to become the most successful cancer treatment to date and one of the leading drugs with sales likely to exceed US$9 billion by 2015.

Since its launch in 2004, Avastin has achieved strong growth culminating in sales of US$5,731 million (SFr 6.2 billion) in 2009. Not only is Avastin now Roche’s top-selling oncology product, ahead of both MabThera/Rituxan (rituximab) and Herceptin (trastuzumab), but its sales exceed those of every other cancer product on the market.

In 2009, solid growth was seen across all markets, driven by continued uptake in colorectal cancer (CRC), breast cancer (BC) and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). In the US, metastatic BC was the main growth driver, helped by launches for the new indications of glioblastoma and renal cell carcinoma (RCC). Strong growth was seen in the EU in all indications. In the Japanese market, Avastin sales growth was particularly strong with continued substantial uptake in CRC, enhanced by its recent approval for NSCLC.

While its first-to-market status and Roche’s experience in the oncology sector have provided a sound basis for growth, a number of related angiogenesis products have been launched and many more are on the horizon. What threat do they present to Avastin’s status and when will their impact be felt?

The current market

Avastin is the only product that currently directly inhibits VEGF. Competing products take a different approach. Bayer/Onyx’ Nexavar, Pfizer’s Sutent and GSK’s Votrient/Armala are all multi-kinase inhibitors and Pfizer’s Torisel and Novartis’ Afinitor are mTOR (kinase) inhibitors.

Looking forward...

Drugs with novel mechanisms of inhibiting angiogenesis are beginning to emerge in company pipelines. Espicom has identified 13 major projects in Phase III development, with a further 10 in Phase II. Novel agents include:

Enzastaurin: A novel agent that acts through inhibition of protein kinase C and has been found to suppress tumour growth through multiple mechanisms, such as the direct suppression of tumour cell proliferation.

Panobinostat: This pan-histone deacetylase inhibitor targets multiple oncogenic pathways, including angiogenesis.

PF-02341066: This is a selective ATP-competitive small-molecule inhibitor of both c-Met/hepatocyte growth factor receptor and anaplastic lymphoma kinase tyrosine kinases and their oncogenic variants.

With this report you will...
  • Understand Avastin’s unique position in the oncology market
  • Evaluate its strengths and weaknesses relative to other VEGF-targeting products
  • Gain insight into the prevalence of cancers in Avastin’s therapeutic window
  • Review the merits of 21 late-phase development prospects with Espicom’s unique 5-point competitive assessment
  • Know the launch timeframe for up and coming products
  • Estimate future revenues with 5-year forecasts for more than 20 launched and late-phase products

Just some of the approaches being used by products in this report

VEGFr-1, -2 and -3 tyrosine kinase inhibitors
VEGF Trap
MET & RET inhibitors
PDGFr inhibitors
HDAC inhibitors

Questions answered by the report include...
  • Which other products in the pipeline mirror Avastin’s therapeutic approach?
  • What are the extension indications Avastin is expected to secure to 2016?
  • In 2012, five products targeting the VEGF pathway are expected to launch – what are they and who are the developers?
  • Why is Amgen/Takeda’s motesanib/AMG 706 expected to achieve revenues in excess of US$1 billion by 2014?
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Introduction
Angiogenesis and the Role of VEGF
Angiogenesis Inhibitors
Avastin
Avastin’s Place Within the Market
The Secret to Avastin’s Success
Opportunities for Avastin
Threats to Avastin
Angiogenesis Inhibitors under Development
Other Areas of Research
Shape of the Future; Sales Forecasts to 2015
Competitor Ratio Analysis
Competitor Ratio Analysis Criteria
Summary

AVASTIN

Mode of Action
Current Status
Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
Development Risks
Company Expertise
Competition within the Market-place
Forecast
Competitor Ratio Analysis

LAUNCHED COMPETITORS

Afinitor
  Mode of Action
  Current Status
  Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
  Development Risks
  Company Expertise
  Competition within the Market-place
  Forecast
  Competitor Ratio Analysis
Armala/Votrient
  Mode of Action
  Current Status
  Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
  Development Risks
  Company Expertise
  Competition within the Market-place
  Forecast
  Competitor Ratio Analysis
Nexavar
  Mode of Action
  Current Status
  Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
  Development Risks
  Company Expertise
  Competition within the Market-place
  Forecast
  Competitor Ratio Analysis
Sutent
  Mode of Action
  Current Status
  Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
  Development Risks
  Company Expertise
  Competition within the Market-place
  Forecast
  Competitor Ratio Analysis
Torisel
  Mode of Action
  Current Status
  Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
  Development Risks
  Company Expertise
  Competition within the Market-place
  Forecast
  Competitor Ratio Analysis

PHASE III COMPETITORS

Aflibercept
  Mode of Action
  Current Status
  Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
  Development Risks
  Company Expertise
  Competition within the Market-place
  Forecast
  Competitor Ratio Analysis
Axitinib
  Mode of Action
  Current Status
  Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
  Development Risks
  Company Expertise
  Competition within the Market-place
  Forecast
  Competitor Ratio Analysis
Brivanib
  Mode of Action
  Current Status
  Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
  Development Risks
  Company Expertise
  Competition within the Market-place
  Forecast
  Competitor Ratio Analysis
Enzastaurin
  Mode of Action
  Current Status
  Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
  Development Risks
  Company Expertise
  Competition within the Market-place
  Forecast
  Competitor Ratio Analysis
Midostaurin
  Mode of Action
  Current Status
  Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
  Development Risks
  Company Expertise
  Competition within the Market-place
  Forecast
  Competitor Ratio Analysis
Motesanib
  Mode of Action
  Current Status
  Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
  Development Risks
  Company Expertise
  Competition within the Market-place
  Forecast
  Competitor Ratio Analysis
Panobinostat
  Mode of Action
  Current Status
  Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
  Development Risks
  Company Expertise
  Competition within the Market-place
  Forecast
  Competitor Ratio Analysis
PF-02341066
  Mode of Action
  Current Status
  Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
  Development Risks
  Company Expertise
  Competition within the Market-place
  Forecast
  Competitor Ratio Analysis
Ramucirumab
  Mode of Action
  Current Status
  Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
  Development Risks
  Company Expertise
  Competition within the Market-place
  Forecast
  Competitor Ratio Analysis
Recentin
  Mode of Action
  Current Status
  Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
  Development Risks
  Company Expertise
  Competition within the Market-place
  Forecast
  Competitor Ratio Analysis
Tivozanib
  Mode of Action
  Current Status
  Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
  Development Risks
  Company Expertise
  Competition within the Market-place
  Forecast
  Competitor Ratio Analysis
Vargatef
  Mode of Action
  Current Status
  Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
  Development Risks
  Company Expertise
  Competition within the Market-place
  Forecast
  Competitor Ratio Analysis
XL184
  Mode of Action
  Current Status
  Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
  Development Risks
  Company Expertise
  Competition within the Market-place
  Forecast
  Competitor Ratio Analysis
Zactima
  Mode of Action
  Current Status
  Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
  Development Risks
  Company Expertise
  Competition within the Market-place
  Forecast
  Competitor Ratio Analysis

PHASE II COMPETITORS

Angiocept
  Mode of Action
  Current Status
  Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
  Development Risks
  Company Expertise
  Competition within the Market-place
  Competitor Ratio Analysis
ARQ 197
  Mode of Action
  Current Status
  Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
  Development Risks
  Company Expertise
  Competition within the Market-place
  Competitor Ratio Analysis
Foretinib
  Mode of Action
  Current Status
  Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
  Development Risks
  Company Expertise
  Competition within the Market-place
  Competitor Ratio Analysis
Linifanib
  Mode of Action
  Current Status
  Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
  Development Risks
  Company Expertise
  Competition within the Market-place
  Competitor Ratio Analysis
MGCD265
  Mode of Action
  Current Status
  Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
  Development Risks
  Company Expertise
  Competition within the Market-place
  Competitor Ratio Analysis
Telatinib
  Mode of Action
  Current Status
  Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
  Development Risks
  Company Expertise
  Competition within the Market-place
  Competitor Ratio Analysis
TSU-68
  Mode of Action
  Current Status
  Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
  Development Risks
  Company Expertise
  Competition within the Market-place
  Competitor Ratio Analysis
Others
Apatinib
SU14813

PHASE I COMPETITORS

ALN-VSP
CEP-11981
CYC116
E7080
IMC-18F1
OSI-930
PF-4856884

APPEND IX 1: PHASE TRANSITION PROBABILITY

APPEND IX 2: GLOSSARY

APPEND IX 3: BIBLIOGRAPHY


Journals
Other Sources

LIST OF TABLES

Comparison of Launched Agents Targeting the VEGF Pathway
Avastin Sales and Launches (2004-2009)
Selected Clinical Trial Survival Results
Estimated Major New Avastin Launches
Selected Anti-Angiogenesis Agents Under Development
Timeline of Phase III Anti-Angiogenesis Development Projects
Molecular Targets for Avastin Competitors
Sales Forecasts (2008-2015)
Key Drugs Analysed
Competitive Scores and Sales Scores
Avastin Sales by Company
Avastin Sales by Indication
Afinitor Sales by Indication
Armala/Votrient Sales by Indication
Nexavar Sales by Indication
Sutent Sales by Indication
Torisel Sales by Indication
Afilibercept Sales by Indication
Axitinib Treatment-Related Adverse Events
Axitinib Sales by Indication
Brivanib Sales by Indication
Enzastaurin Total Sales
Midostaurin Sales by Indication
Motesanib Sales by Company
Panobinostat Sales by Indication
PF-02341066 Sales by Indication
Ramucirumab Sales by Indication
Recentin Sales by Indication
Tivozanib Sales by Indication
Vargatef Sales by Indication
XL184 Sales by Indication
Zactima Total Sales
Probability of Launch

LIST OF CHARTS

Angiogenesis is the Formation of New Blood Vessels
Selected Agents Targeting the VEGF Pathway
Oncology Therapy Area Split (2008)
Sales of Targeted Therapies (2008)
Sales of Agents Targeting the VEGF Pathway (2008)
Avastin Geographical Sales (2009)
Avastin Sales (2004-2009)
Relative Proportions of Cancer Indications (2008)
Incidence of Major Cancer Indications (2008 and 2015)
Incidence and Mortality Comparisons (2008)
Sales of VEGF Pathway Inhibitors (2015)
Competitor Ratio Analysis Scores by Product
Analysis of Products Based on Delivery (2015)
Analysis of Products Based on Company (2015)
Avastin Mode of Action
Sales of Avastin by Company (2008-2015)
Avastin Sales by Indication, 2008
Avastin Sales by Indication, 2015
Afinitor Mode of Action
Afinitor Total Sales (2008-2015)
Votrient/Armala Total Sales (2009-2015)
Votrient/Armala Sales by Indication, 2015
Nexavar Dual Mode of Action
Nexavar Total Sales (2008-2015)
Nexavar Sales by Indication, 2008
Nexavar Sales by Indication, 2015
Sutent Mode of Action
Sutent Total Sales (2008-2015)
Sutent Sales by Indication, 2008
Sutent Sales by Indication, 2015
Torisel Mode of Action
Torisel Total Sales (2008-2015)
Torisel Sales by Indication (2015)
Aflibercept Total Sales (2011-2015)
Aflibercept Sales by Indication, 2012
Aflibercept Sales by Indication, 2015
Axitinib Total Sales (2012-2015)
Brivanib Total Sales (2012-2015)
Enzastaurin Total Sales (2014-2016)
Midostaurin Mode of Action
Midostaurin Total Sales (2011-2015)
Motesanib Total Sales (2010-2015)
Panobinostat Mode of Action
Panobinostat Total Sales (2011-2015)
PF-02341066 Total Sales (2013-2015)
Ramucirumab Total Sales (2013-2015)
Cediranib Mechanism Of Action
Recentin Total Sales (2011-2015)
Tivozanib Total Sales (2013-2015)
Vargatef Mode of Action
Vargatef Total Sales (2013-2015)
XL184 Total Sales (2012-2015)
Zactima Total Sales (2011-2015)
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