Portugal Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Q4 2012

Date: September 19, 2012
Pages: 88
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Portugal continues to implement widespread changes to its healthcare sector as part of the EU/IMF/ECB’s EUR78bn economic rescue package approved in May 2011, and the effects of cuts are taking their toll on the pharmaceutical industry. Delayed payments are commonplace, with the impact felt throughout the supply chain, and this is reducing Portugal’s appeal to multinationals: Roche has suspended drug supplies to some public hospitals and press reports suggest that Merck KGaA is also considering reducing its investment in the country. While generic drug manufacturers are benefiting from moves such as obligatory prescriptions by active ingredients, the sector also claims that prices have dropped to five-year lows and that increased volume sales do not equate to increased revenues. With domestic opportunities for growth limited, at least in the short term, Portuguese drugmakers are turning to exports to bolster the bottom line. Bluepharma now exports 70% of its production and Bial has set a target of raising exports from 40% of production in 2011 to 60% by 2015.

Headline Expenditure Projections
  • Pharmaceuticals: EUR4.47bn (US$6.21bn) in 2011 to EUR4.24bn (US$5.38bn) in 2012; -5.2% in local currency and -13.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast raised slightly from Q312 because of macroeconomic factors.
  • Healthcare: EUR19.59bn (US$27.22bn) in 2011 to EUR20.13bn (US$25.57bn) in 2012; +2.8% in local currency and -6.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast raised from Q312 because of macroeconomic factors.
  • Medical Devices: EUR740mn (US$1.03bn) in 2011 to EUR763mn (US$0.97bn) in 2012; +3.1% in local currency and -5.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast lowered from Q312 because of exchange rate differences.
Risk/Rewards Rating: Portugal’s score of 58.6 in Q412 places it at the bottom of the Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) table for Western Europe. Portugal’s healthcare and pharmaceutical market is suffering from the impact of widespread cost cutting measures as part of the EU/IMF/ECB’s three year economic adjustment package, begun in May 2011. While Portugal is generally adhering to the terms of the package, the short-term drop in spending, and the longer term impact this will have on the pharmaceutical market hamper Portugal’s growth prospects. In terms of country risk and rewards, the Portuguese have lower spending power, high levels of unemployment, and many of the young are emigrating, leaving an ageing population behind.

Key Trends & Developments
  • Infarmed – part of the Ministry of Health – has responsible for the pricing of medicines since August 1 2012. Previously, it was the role of part of the Ministry of Economy.
  • Delays in government payments to pharmaceutical companies prevail: in April 2012, payments took an average of 542 days to reach suppliers, according to Apifarma. Press reports claim Merck KGsA is considering withdrawing investment from the country unless these delays are resolved.
  • Changes to the market are producing mixed results for the manufacturers of generic drugs: at the end of June 2012, Infarmed reported that they took a 25% market share, but with average prices dropping to a five-year low.
BMI Economic View: Portugal may be on track in terms of meeting its obligations as part of its three year EU/ECB/IMF economic adjustment programme, but nearly halfway through the programme, there are few reasons to be optimistic. Unemployment is high, and with two more years of recession on the horizon, the prospects for short-term economic growth are limited.

BMI Political View: Portugal’s government may well be doing its homework as part of the EU and IMF’s imposed austerity measures, but that does not mean that it has public support for each and every measure. In July 2012, public sector doctors went on a two-day strike to protest at cost cutting measures, and the government will have a hard time justifying austerity measures when consumer spending power is low, unemployment is high and the short-term outlook is far from rosy.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Portugal Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
Portugal Political SWOT
Portugal Economic SWOT
Portugal Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings
  Table: Western Europe Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings, Q412
Portugal – Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
Parallel Imports
Recent EU Regulatory Developments
Pricing Regime
Patented Products
Generic Drugs
OTC Medicines
Reimbursement Regime
Industry Trends and Developments
Healthcare System
Pharmaceutical Industry
Company Developments
Wholesale Sector
Pharmacy Sector
Clinical Research
Medical Devices
Industry Forecast Scenario
Overall Market Forecast
  Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016
Key Growth Factors – Industry
  Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016
  Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016
  Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016
  Table: Portugal – Economic Activity 2011-2016
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
  Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016
Patented Drug Market Forecast
  Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2008-2016
Generic Drug Market Forecast
  Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016
  Table: Top Generic Drugs By Value In 2011
  Table: Average Price Of Top Generic Drugs By Value 2010-2011
Portugal Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
  Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016
  Table: OTC Sales Outside Of Pharmacies By Therapeutic Group (Jan-Nov 2011)
  Table: OTC Sales Outside Of Pharmacies By District (Jan-Nov 2011)
  Table: OTC Sales Outside Of Pharmacies By Sales Outlet (Jan-Nov 2011)
  Table: Portugal OTC Sales Outside Of Pharmacies By Active Ingredient (Jan-Nov 2011)
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
  Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2008-2016
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Number Of Pharmaceutical Companies, Wholesalers, Pharmacies, Pharmacy Extensions And Drug Stores In Portugal
Company Profiles
Demographic Outlook
  Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000)
  Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
  Table: Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
  Table: Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
  Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
  Table: Weighting Of Components
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