Market report details results, explores forecasts for development to 2015.
Implementation of the provisions of Poland’s Reimbursement Act has created visible consequences in the country’s pharmaceutical and healthcare markets. The experienced analysts at PMR have kept close watch on these changes, observing events and collecting data that documents variations in sales values of various medications, the value of the hospital market and best-selling medicines across the industry.
The result of this study is the publication of Pharmaceutical and healthcare market in Poland 2013, Development forecasts for 2013-2015. This report analyses overall market conditions and evaluates the changes attributed to the Reimbursement Act as observed in pharmacy and hospital environments. It profiles the leading pharmaceutical manufacturers and examines products in terms of their ATC designations, revealing the opportunities and obstacles to success in these markets and predictions for changes in the future.
The report presents foundational data on the value of the pharmacy and healthcare markets, emphasizing the changes that have come to light since the Reimbursement Act was first implemented. It covers modifications to the list made in 2012 and 2013, and analyses each of the applicable ATC categories in terms of the effects of reimbursement policies on profitability. It contains listings of the top selling pharmaceutical preparations as well as dietary supplements and newly introduced generic and innovative products.
Information about consumer preferences with regard to innovative treatments, demographic details in relation to use of medicines and ample epidemiological data combine to give readers a complete overview of market activity. Profiles of leading pharmaceutical and healthcare companies reveal revenues and strategies for adaptation to changing conditions that are forecast to continue during the period 2013-2015.
Reimbursement information is provided as follows: NFZ expenditures for open reimbursements, chemotherapy programmes and other drugs during 2012, NFZ total 2012 expenditures for drugs according to ATC category, level of required copayment and by voivodship. Expected changes to drug and reimbursement lists over the forecast period are also furnished.
This document also describes the situation in Poland’s healthcare segment, supplying data on the total numbers of doctors and their applicable specialties and hospitals in terms of quantity, patient capacity, and NFZ contract status. It instructs readers on the characteristics that distinguish medical spending as part of the public or private healthcare sector in Poland.
Pharmaceutical and healthcare market in Poland 2013, Development forecasts for 2013-2015 is an indispensible information source for pharmaceutical manufacturers, healthcare services providers and the companies that furnish their supplies, and providers of consultancy, financial and research and analysis services.
Users will find this report especially valuable in their efforts to begin and expand business operations, assess potential investment opportunities, prepare forecasts for sales and earnings, and examine the value and business activities of competing business interests. Government and commerce organisations will also utilise the data and forecasts to prepare internal and external reporting on Poland’s pharmaceutical and healthcare sector.
II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
III. OVERVIEW OF THE PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET IN POLAND
IV. PHARMACY MARKET BY THERAPEUTIC GROUPS
V. BESTSELLING DRUGS
VI. DRUG REIMBURSEMENT IN POLAND
VII. PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANIES IN POLAND
VIII. EPIDEMIOLOGICAL TRENDS
IX. CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR
X. LEGAL ENVIRONMENT
XI. HEALTHCARE MARKET IN POLAND
XII. LIST OF GRAPHS
XIII. LIST OF TABLES
XIV. ABOUT PMR
In 2012, the pharmacy market in Poland has recorded negative growth for the first time in many years and fell 6% year on year. These developments were mostly driven by the entry into force of the Reimbursement Act, which was the main reason behind the hefty fall of 23% in the value of sales generated by the segment of reimbursed pharmaceuticals in 2012. The market is forecast to show positive growth in 2013, according to the latest report from PMR, a research and consulting company, entitled “Pharmaceutical and healthcare market in Poland 2013. Development forecasts for 2013-2015”.
The market is set to grow by more than 4% in 2013
According to PMR forecasts, in 2013, the pharmacy market growth rate will be positive, equalling around 4%. The recovery of pharmacy sales will be connected chiefly with the scarce resource effect from 2012. Before the Reimbursement Act came into force, in Q4 2011 we had observed panic buying and significant sales growth. This was reflected in a significant drop in sales at the beginning of 2012. In January 2012, pharmacy sales declined by 17% year on year. Therefore, in January 2013 the rate of market growth was very high.
In 2013, the factors that had a negative impact on the market in 2012, such as decrease in sales in the segment of reimbursed drugs, frequent changes on the lists of reimbursed drugs or further price reductions, will continue to prevail. “In the 2014-2015 period, we predict a further stability of the pharmacy sales in Poland and the growth rate at 4.5-5.5%. In general, 2013-2015 CAGR will amount to 4.7% and the market value will be in excess of PLN 30bn (€7bn) in 2015” says Agnieszka Skonieczna, PMR Senior Pharmaceutical Market Analyst and the report co-author.
Smallest categories to grow the fastest
In 2012, sales drops were observed for a majority of ATC categories – with the largest in the category of drugs used in blood and blood forming organs and in the case of antineoplastic and immunomodulating agents, as a consequence of changes on the lists of reimbursed drugs as well as reductions of drug prices. “In the past two years similar trends were seen in all main therapeutic categories: a sudden sales rise in Q4 2011, sales drop in Q1 2012 and keeping a relatively low level of sales throughout 2012” says Agnieszka Skonieczna.
According to PMR forecasts, the smallest ATC categories will be the ones to develop fastest in 2013-2015 – antiparasitic products and sensory organs.
Funding latest-generation oncological drugs poses problem
Oncological pharmaceuticals and immunosuppressive drugs were the driving force pushing the growth of the pharmaceutical market in 2008-2009. The main reason for the growth was the change in the status of immunosuppressive drugs from the category of medicines used in hospital care to drugs available in pharmacies. Nevertheless, in 2012, the pharmacy sales of antineoplastic and immunomodulating agents fell most significantly from all categories, by nearly one-fourth. This resulted primarily from considerable reductions of prices of oncological drugs following the entry into force of the Reimbursement Act.
According to our forecasts, despite a growing incidence of cancer (according to the Oncology Centre, by 2025 there will be an increase in incidence by 43% in men and by 36% in women, compared with 2009), the growth changes in this category of pharmacy sales will be scarce. The biggest problem facing the pharmaceutical market in Poland is the funding of latest-generation oncological drugs.
According to the National Cancer Registry, the incidence of cancer grows – it reached more than 140,000 cases in 2010. Compared to the EU average, Poland has a low incidence of cancer, though the mortality rate is high.
More than half of new cases of cancer are reported in people aged over 60 years. Nevertheless, the morbidity among the working age people has been increasing year on year. For instance, in 2010 the number of new cases in men aged 35-39 rose by nearly 10%, compared with 2009.
The material was prepared in July, 2013.