The Pharmaceutical Market: Bulgaria

Date: January 31, 2013
Pages: 92
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Publisher: Espicom Business Intelligence
Report type: Strategic Report
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ID: PFCF28CFB20EN
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The Pharmaceutical Market: Bulgaria
OVERVIEW OF THE PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET IN BULGARIA

The Bulgarian government is planning to earmark some BGN150-160mn (US$98.65-105.23mn) in additional funding for healthcare in 2013, the government's press service cited Prime Minister Boyko Borisov as saying in October 2012 . The funds are expected to be used to purchase new equipment, upgrade hospitals and general ly improve Bulgarian health services. We have long highlighted the likelihood of increased public spending ahead of the 2013 parliamentary election, although we do not foresee significant risks to fiscal sustainability , given that Bulgaria has the second lowest public d ebt load in the European Union - at 17.5% of GDP (end-2011). However, as BMI has been warning since February 2012, the government has pushed ahead with changes to Bulgaria's pricing and reimbursement regime. For example, the external reference pricing mechanism for pharmaceuticals, which now takes into account 12 countries - up from eight previously - is expected to have a negative effect on the prices of a number of medicines listed for reimbursement.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: BGN2.10bn (US$1.49bn) in 2011 to BGN2.23bn (US$1.44bn) in 2012; +6.1% in local currency terms and -3.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged since Q412.

Healthcare: BGN5.12bn (US$3.64bn) in 2011 to BGN5.22bn (US$3.38bn) in 2012; +1.9% in local currency terms and -7.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged since Q412.

Medical devices: BGN281mn (US$200mn) in 2011 to BGN285mn (US$185mn) in 2012; +1.7% in local currency terms and -7.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged since Q412.

Competitive Landscape

The Competitive Landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

SWOT ANALYSIS

    Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare SWOT
    Bulgaria Political SWOT
    Bulgaria Economic SWOT
    Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT

PHARMACEUTICAL RISK/REWARD RATINGS

    Table: Central And Eastern Europe Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113
    Rewards
    Risks

BULGARIA – MARKET SUMMARY

    Regulatory Regime
    Pharmaceutical Advertising
    Intellectual Property Environment
    Trademark Disputes
    Pricing Regime
    Drug Policy Amendments Passed In 2011
    Drug Policy Amendments For 2012
    Legislative Changes To Drug Policy In 2013 And Beyond
    Table: Bulgarian Health Ministers
    Reimbursement Regime
    Reimbursement Regime Developments

INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENTS

    Epidemiology
    Table: Main Causes Of Death In Bulgaria (per 100,000 population)
    Communicable Diseases
    Table: Reported Cases Of HIV/AIDS, 2002-2009
    Healthcare Sector
    Healthcare Insurance
    Healthcare Reform Through To 2020
    Healthcare Financing
    Table: NHIF Budget
    Research & Development
    Table: Members Of ARPharM, 2011
    Clinical Trials
    Medical Devices
    Table: Classification Of Medical Devices In The EU

INDUSTRY FORECAST SCENARIO

    Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
    Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, 2008-2016
    Healthcare Market Forecast
    Table: Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016
    Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016
      Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016

MACROECONOMIC FORECAST SCENARIO

      Table: Bulgaria – Fiscal Policy
      Prescription Drug Market Forecast
      Table: Prescription Drug Sales, 2008-2016
      Table: Top Ten Prescription Drugs By Volume, 2009
      Table: Top Ten Prescription Drugs By Value, 2009
      Table: Leading ATC Groups By Volume, 2009
      Table: Leading ATC Groups By Value, 2009
      Patented Drug Market Forecast
      Table: Patented Drug Sales, 2008-2016
      Generic Drug Market Forecast
      Table: Members Of Bulgarian Generic Pharmaceutical Manufacturers’ Association (BGPharmA*), 2011
      Table: Generic Drug Sales, 2008-2016
      OTC Medicine Market Forecast
      Table: OTC Medicine Sales, 2008-2016
      Table: Top Ten Non-Prescription Drugs By Volume, 2009
      Table: Top Ten Non-Prescription Drugs By Value, 2009
      Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
      Table: Pharmaceutical Trade, 2008-2016
      Medical Device Market Forecast
      Table: Medical Device Sales, 2008-2016
      Other Healthcare Data
      Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

      Pharmaceutical Industry
      Company Activities
      Wholesale Sector
      Retail Sector
      Table: Pharmaceutical Wholesale And Retail Market, 2007-2010

COMPANY PROFILES

  Local Companies
      Sopharma
      Biovet
      Actavis Bulgaria
  Multinational Companies
      GlaxoSmithKline
      Novartis
      Sanofi
      Pfizer
      Merck & Co
      Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000)
      Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
      Table: Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
      Table: Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020

GLOSSARY

BMI METHODOLOGY

HOW WE GENERATE OUR PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY FORECASTS

  Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
  Ratings Overview
  Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Indicators
  Weighting
  Table: Weighting Of Components
  Sources
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