The Outlook for Pharmaceuticals in Brazil, Russia, India & China

Date: August 31, 2012
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The Outlook for Pharmaceuticals in Brazil, Russia, India & China
These leading emerging economies represent a combined pharmaceutical market of US$160.8 billion at retail prices. Where do commercial opportunities exist for pharmaceutical companies over the 2012-17 forecast period?

Putting things in perspective...

With strong economic growth, a combined population of 2.9 billion people and significant unmet healthcare needs, challenges and opportunities remain in BRIC pharmaceutical markets. Their combined market, including pharmacy and hospital sales, is valued at US$160.8 billion at retail prices in 2012. This market is collectively lower than the USA and just higher than Japan, but impressive growth rates mean that pharmaceutical companies ought to have long-term interests in these markets. China, in fact, is expected to become the second leading worldwide pharmaceutical market by 2016.

Sizeable opportunities exist …

There are wide regional health expenditure differences within the BRIC markets, far more than in developed countries where health systems provide a more uniform coverage level. These four countries, however, have a relatively wealthy urban population with a far greater spending power than their respective national average. In the case of China and India, these urban populations have grown rapidly, and number hundreds of millions. The challenge for these countries is to extend this level of wealth to the rest of the population, so that better levels of healthcare become affordable. China, for instance, plans to create a solid platform for universal healthcare access for all by 2020.

A long haul...

Pharmaceutical market growth has been impressive in recent years. Market change, however, is expected to be incremental. Short-term opportunities exist to meet the health demands of the burgeoning middle classes, whilst future prospects are bright, fuelled by strong economic performance. A high pharmaceutical market growth projected in BRIC markets is expected to erode some of the commercial differences with the established, but more sluggish, pharmaceutical markets in North America, Japan and Europe.

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE REGION...

BRAZIL

Local companies are aiming to position themselves in the biological sector. In May 2012, Cristália, Biolab, Eurofarma and Libbs announced the launch of OrygenBiotecnologia, a new company specialised in biological and biosimilar medicines. This followed the launch of BioNovis, a company specialised in biological medicines, founded by EMS, Aché, Hypermarcas and UniãoQuímica in March 2012. Initial investments in BioNovis amount to R$200.0 million (US$107.0 million) but total investments over a five-year period are projected at R$500.0 million (US$267.5 million). BioNovis will operate a manufacturing plant and an R&D centre.

RUSSIA

Russia is by far the largest market in Central Eastern Europe (CEE) and is five times larger than Ukraine. In per capita terms, the market is similar to Serbia. The market is projected to expand at a moderate CAGR between 2012 and 2016. The market is driven by strong import growth; imports rose by a CAGR of around 20% in US dollar terms over the 2007-11 period. A heavy reliance on imports has resulted from the lack of locally-manufactured innovative pharmaceuticals, although the government is working on a plan to help boost domestic production of original drugs.

INDIA

The need to maintain low prices for essential medicines has been addressed in the government’s draft National Pharmaceutical Pricing Policy (NPPP), released in 2011. The proposed NPPP focuses on the National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM), which is periodically revised. The headline major change is a move from the principle of cost-based pricing to a market-based pricing model. The Department of Pharmaceuticals argues that market-based pricing would result in more transparent and fair pricing, as well as increasing competition in the marketplace. Price regulation will encompass all drugs listed in the NLEM, as well as formulations containing combinations of drugs listed in the NLEM; this will include combinations comprising listed drugs and unlisted drugs. If the NPPP is implemented, around 60% of the drugs currently available in India will come under price control.

CHINA

Espicom projects that the pharmaceutical market will grow by a high CAGR between 2012 and 2017. China will be the largest pharmaceutical market in the Asia Pacific region, overtaking Japan in 2016. China will represent more than a third of the Asia Pacific region’s total pharmaceutical market in 2017. The top 25 local pharmaceutical manufacturers had combined revenue of around US$16.0 billion in 2010. There were 14 companies that had annual revenues of over US$500.0 million, and 33 companies that had annual revenues of over US$100.0 million. The top 10 local pharmaceutical manufacturers had collective revenue of around US$10.0 billion. Four companies, Harbin Pharmaceutical Group, North China Pharmaceutical, Shanghai Pharmaceuticals and China Pharmaceutical Group, reported annual revenues of US$1.0 billion or more in 2010.

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ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION

4 MARKETS COVERED

Brazil
Russia
India
China

HIGHLY DETAILED REPORT CONTENT

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Strategic Espicom Analysis
SWOT Analysis

KEY BACKGROUND DATA

Geographic
Political
Economic
Healthcare

INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS

Authority
Patent Protection
Supplementary Protection
Data Exclusivity
Enforcement

REGULATION

Authority
Marketing Registration
Marketing Authorisation
Post-Marketing
Clinical Trials
Advertising

PRICING & REIMBURSEMENT

Authority
Private Pricing
Public Pricing
Reimbursement

WHOLESALE

Overview
Associations
Wholesalers

RETAIL

Overview
Associations
Pharmacy Chains

MARKET ANALYSIS

Market Size
Reported Pharmacy Sales
Reported Hospital Sales

BIOLOGICAL MARKET FOCUS

Regulation
Reported Market Sales

GENERIC MARKET FOCUS

Regulation
Pricing & Reimbursement
Reported Market Sales

RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT

Historical Analysis

PRODUCTION

Historical Analysis

INTERNATIONAL TRADE

Monthly Analysis, 2011-2012
Historical Analysis, 1995-2011
Annual Analysis, 2011

FOREIGN COMPETITION

Trade Promotion
Research-Based Producers
Generic Producers

LOCAL COMPETITION

Trade Promotion
Research-Based Producers
Generic Producers

METHODOLOGY

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