CNS Drug Discoveries: Parkinson's Disease Chapter

Date: August 22, 2008
Pages: 74
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Publisher: Espicom Business Intelligence
Report type: Strategic Report
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ID: C3447C96E9FEN
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CNS Drug Discoveries: Parkinson's Disease Chapter
Parkinson’s disease

In 2007, approximately US$3.6 billion was spent on the symptomatic treatment of Parkinson’s disease (PD). Although this neurodegenerative disease affects approximately 1% of the population its prevalence increases with age, thus it is likely to become more commonplace due to patient demographics and become a greater burden to healthcare payers.

PD patients are treated with a cocktail of drugs which are adapted to the patients' needs as the disease progresses. There is no cure and current therapies are relatively effective at treating the symptoms in the early stages but less so in advanced PD, and there remain significant side effects.

Whilst generic levodopa remains the cornerstone of treatment and is widely available relatively cheaply, its chronic use is not necessarily limited by budget, but by its long-term effectiveness. Hence, the more costly dopamine agonists have gained utility in the treatment of the early stage of the disease helping to spare levodopa treatment.

However, over the next six years many of the leading dopamine agonists face patent expiration, enabling generics to become more freely available. Meanwhile some companies have new improved dopamine agonists in their pipelines such as Solvay’s pardoprunox or more potent monoamine oxidase inhibitors such as Merck KGaA/Newron's safinamide.

Some companies have picked up the gauntlet and run to develop new disease-modifying agents which could revolutionise the way advanced PD is treated. For example, Bayer's high-risk, high-reward approach to developing spheramine is a novel cell therapy that may halt the progression of PD.

Key PD questions answered include:
  • What percentage of the treatable population for PD has been diagnosed in Europe, US and Japan?
  • Which PD products will face generic challenges by 2014?
  • What are the commercial prospects for Bayer’s revolutionary disease-modifying agent spheramine?
  • By 2014, Boehringer Ingelheim and GSK will have lost considerable PD market share – to whom and what products will make the difference?

Key products analysed and forecast

Apokyn - Britannia/Ipsen
Azilect - Lundbeck/Teva Pharmaceuticals
Comtan franchise - Novartis/Orion
Istradefylline - Kyowa Hakko
Mirapex - Boehringer Ingelheim
Neupro - UCB
Pardoprunox - Solvay
Requip - GlaxoSmithKline
Safinamide - Merck KGaA/Newron
Spheramine - Bayer/Titan Pharmaceuticals

PARKINSON’S DISEASE CONTENTS

Executive Summary

THE FACTS

What is Parkinson's disease and why are we interested in it?
Patient Statistics
- Incidence, diagnosis rates and treatment; now and in the future
Patient Model
Drug Growth Drivers
Drug Growth Risks/Dampeners

THE MARKET

Global Parkinson's Disease Market
Global Sales Split
- The major players
- Players and products in 2014

CURRENT PD TREATMENTS

- Leading brands
- Current products’ patent exposure
Analysis of Leading Brands
- Dopamine agonists
- Monoamine oxidase inhibitors
- Catechol-O-methyltransferase inhibitors
Global Sales Forecasts of Current Treatments 2007A - 2014E

NEW DRUGS IN R&D

Analysis of Phase lll Drugs
Global Sales Forecasts of Phase lll Parkinson's Disease Drugs 2007A - 2014E
Analysis of Phase ll Drugs
Competitor Ratio Analysis -Products
Competitor Ratio Analysis - Companies
- Winners and losers
Discontinuation of Drugs

APPENDICES

- Phase Transition Probability
- Parkinson's Disease Patient Model
- Global Parkinson's Disease Drugs Sales 2007A - 2014E
- Competitor Ratio Analysis Criteria
PARKINSON’S DISEASE

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

THE FACTS

What is Parkinson's disease and why are we interested in it?

PATIENT STATISTICS

Incidence, diagnosis rates and treatment; now and in the future
PATIENT MODEL

The treated PD patient population will grow by 3.6 per cent per annum
Summary of PD Patient Population Forecasts 2007A-2014E
Model Assumptions

DRUG GROWTH DRIVERS

Potential Diagnostic Biomarkers for PD

DRUG GROWTH RISKS/DAMPENERS

THE PD MARKE T

Global CNS Market 2007 (US$91.9 billion)
PD Global Sales Split (2006)
The Major Players
Market Share of PD Players by Sales (Dec 2007A)
Players and Products in 2014
Market Share of PD Players by Sales (Dec 2014E)

CURREN T PD TREA TMEN TS

Leading Brands
Comparison of Leading PD Drug Classes
Current Products' Patent Exposure
Patent Exposure of Leading PD Brands

ANALYSIS OF LEADING BRANDS

Dopamine Agonists
Apokyn
  Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
  Proof of concept/clinical data
  Management/clinical expertise
  Competition within the market-place/gaining share of voice
  Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
  Filings and approval
  Sales forecasts and assumptions
  Competitor ratio analysis
Neupro
  Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
  Proof of concept/clinical data
  Clinical Endpoint of Phase III trials with Neupro 1) Europe 2) the US
  Management/clinical expertise
  Competition within the market-place/gaining share of voice
  Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
  Filings and approval
  Sales forecasts and assumptions
  Competitor ratio analysis
Sifrol/Mirapex/Mirapexin
  Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
  Proof of concept/clinical data
  Management/clinical expertise
  Competition within the market-place/gaining share of voice
  Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
  Filings and approval
  Sales forecasts and assumptions
  Competitor ratio analysis
Requip
  Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
  Proof of concept/clinical data
  Management/clinical expertise
  Competition within the market-place/gaining share of voice
  Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
  Filings and approval
  Sales forecasts and assumptions
  Competitor ratio analysis
  Monoamine Oxidase Inhibitors
Azilect
  Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
  Proof of concept/clinical data
  Management/clinical expertise
  Competition within the market-place/gaining share of voice
  Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
  Filings and approval
  Sales forecasts and assumptions
  Competitor ratio analysis
  Catechol-O-Methyltransferase Inhibitors
Comtan/Comtess/Stalevo
  Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
  Proof of concept/clinical data
  Management/clinical expertise
  Competition within the market-place/gaining share of voice
  Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
  Filings and approval
  Sales forecasts and assumptions
  Competitor ratio analysis

GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF CURRENT TREATMENTS 2007A - 2014E

Sales Forecasts of Current Leading PD Drugs
Model Assumptions

NEW DRUGS IN R&D

Drugs in Development to Treat PD

ANALYSIS OF LATE-PHASE DRUGS

New Drugs in Phase III Development to Treat PD
Istradefylline
    Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
  Proof of concept/clinical data
  Management/clinical expertise
  Competition within the market-place/gaining share of voice
  Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
  Filings and approval
  Sales forecasts and assumptions
  Competitor ratio analysis
Pardoprunox
  Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
  Proof of concept/clinical data
  Management/clinical expertise
  Competition within the market-place/gaining share of voice
  Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
  Filings and approval
  Sales forecasts and assumptions
  Competitor ratio analysis
Safinamide
  Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
  Proof of concept/clinical data
  Management/clinical expertise
  Competition within the market-place/gaining share of voice
  Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
  Filings and approval
  Sales forecasts and assumptions
  Competitor ratio analysis

GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF LATE-PHASE PD DRUGS 2009E - 2014E

Sales Forecasts of Late-Phase Developmental PD Drugs
Model Assumptions

ANALYSIS OF PHASE II DRUGS

New Drugs in Early Clinical Development to Treat PD
Spheramine
  Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
  Proof of concept/clinical data
  Management/clinical expertise
  Competition within the market-place/gaining share of voice
  Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
  Filings and approval
  Sales forecasts and assumptions
  Competitor ratio analysis
VR040

COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS

COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - PRODUCTS

CR Analysis of PD Agents Approved by 2014 - Based on Drug Class

COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - COMPANIES

CR Analysis of PD Agents Approved by 2014 - Based on Company
WINNERS & LOSERS

Summary of Key Companies and Drugs in the PD Market by 2014

DIS CON TIN UATION OF DRUGS

PD Drugs Discontinued from Clinical Development

PD APPEN DIX 1

Phase Transition Probability
Probability of Launch

PD APPEN DIX 2

PD Patient Model
Summary of PD Patient Population Forecasts

PD APPEN DIX 3

Global PD Drugs Sales 2007A-2014E
Global PD Drug Sales 2007A-2014E

PD APPEN DIX 4

Competitor Ratio Analysis Criteria
Key PD Drugs on the Market by 2014

PARKINSON 'S DISEASE GLOSSAR Y

PARKINSON 'S DISEASE RE FEREN CES

ACRON YMS
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