Breast Cancer Drug Discoveries: What the Future Holds

Date: August 22, 2011
Pages: 382
Price:
US$ 3,145.00
Publisher: Espicom Business Intelligence
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: B614D779E49EN
Leaflet:

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Breast Cancer Drug Discoveries: What the Future Holds
In 2010, almost 50% of breast cancer sales were due to three branded targeted therapies. With a large unmet clinical need, further agents are required to increase survival and delay disease progression.
  • Unique breast cancer market share, sales forecasts by launched and Phase III products to 2017
  • A comprehensive and critical examination and scoring of 72 major breast cancer treatments
  • Comprehensive market assessment of therapeutic approaches, company share, portfolios and prospects

Breast Cancer Therapy Sales Forecast 2010 - 2017

'What’s the story behind this chart?'

The changing competitive landscape

By 2017, Espicom forecasts a modest increase in the number of players in the market-place compared to 2010, with Roche, and GlaxoSmithKline to a lesser extent, triumphing with targeted therapies directed against the specific subset of BC patients with HER2-positive disease. AstraZeneca, Novartis and Pfizer will face widespread generic competition for their hormonal therapies, leading to a loss of market share. Similarly, Sanofi and Eli Lilly will face declining sales for their chemotherapies.

The market in 2010...

In recent years, more effective treatments have decreased mortality and improved survival rates, resulting in a longer duration of therapy for an increased patient population. In the US, five-year relative survival rates have improved from 63% in the early 1960s to 90% in recent years, while in England, rates for women diagnosed with BC in 2001-2006 reached 82%, compared to 52% 1971-1975. This report estimates that sales of leading brands achieved sales of US$12.7 billion in 2010, with growth due to expanding sales for a number of existing treatments rather than the launch of new products. Sales were split between chemotherapies, hormonal therapies and novel molecular targeted therapies, with the majority of these agents used in combination.

And 2017: how things might change Hormonal therapies

The aromatase inhibitors will suffer from patent expiries in all major markets by 2012, and the report expects significant generic competition and sales for this group to decline by over 92% from US$3.4 billion in 2010, to just US$259 million in 2017. With widespread generic versions of the leading selective oestrogen receptor modulator, tamoxifen, the overall market share of branded hormonal therapies will decline as sales fall from US$4 billion to US$1.4 billion, a drop of 65%. These declines will be tempered by the relative success of AstraZeneca’s Faslodex.

Chemotherapies

By 2017, most chemotherapies will be available as generics. In addition to patent expirations for Sanofi’s Taxotere (docetaxel) and Eli Lilly’s Gemzar (gemcitabine) in 2009/2010, the US patent on Roche’s Xeloda (capecitabine) will expire in 2013. As a direct result, sales will decrease by almost 40% from over US$2.4 billion in 2010 to around US$1.5 billion in 2017, with market share continuing to decline, from 19 to 12%. This general trend is mitigated somewhat by the newer chemotherapies, which are demonstrating sales growth and carving out market share due to their improved safety and efficacy compared to older more established agents.

Targeted therapies – moving beyond HER2

By 2017, Espicom estimates that a total of ten products will command a 77% market share, with the current therapies, Roche’s Herceptin and Avastin, along with GSK’s Tykerb/Tyverb, accounting for over 80% of these sales. Herceptin will continue as the clear market leader. But what about patients who are HER2 negative? There is an urgent need for more therapies and just a handful are likely to be launched by 2017:
  • Bayer’s Nexavar is a multi-targeted kinase inhibitor already marketed for the treatment of renal cell carcinoma and hepatocellular carcinoma.
  • Eli Lilly’s anti-VEGFr2 monoclonal antibody, ramucirumab, an angiogenesisinhibitor, may be able to pick up market share from Avastin if the company can demonstrate an improved survival advantage.
  • There has been considerable optimism over a novel class of agents, the PARP inhibitors, including Sanofi’s iniparib, which is under development for triplenegative breast cancer. Nevertheless, doubt has been cast over the effectiveness of this class following the termination of the development of AstraZeneca’s olaparib.

About the Author: This report has been written by Sue Viney, a senior writer on Espicom’s oncology analysis team. Sue has been evaluating companies, products and drugs in research for 12 years. She is editor of Cancer Drug Futures and, in addition, has also produced management reports on the lung, colorectal, prostate and renal cancer areas as well as studies on Rheumatoid Arthritis and CNS drug development.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

CURRENT TREATMENTS

Surgery
Radiation Therapy
Hormonal Therapy
  Current Products’ Patent Exposure
Chemotherapy
  Current Products’ Patent Exposure
Molecular Targeted Therapy
  Current Products’ Patent Exposure

MARKET ANALYSIS

The Breast Cancer Market in 2010
  Targeted Therapies
  Hormonal Therapies
  Chemotherapies
  The Players
The Breast Cancer Market in 2017
  Hormonal Therapies
  Chemotherapies
  Targeted Therapies
  The Players

DRUG GROWTH DRIVERS AND DAMPENERS

Drug Growth Drivers
Drug Growth Dampeners

SALES FORECASTS (2010 ACTUAL - 2017 ESTIMATES)

COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS

RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

Research and Development Strategies
  Targeting ErbB
  Targeting VEGF
  Targeting PAR P
  Targeting IG F-1r
  Therapeutic Vaccines
Research and Development Pipelines

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

What is Breast Cancer?
Risk Factors for Breast Cancer
Stages of Breast Cancer
Diagnosis and Screening
Factors Influencing Survival
Patients Statistics
  Worldwide Variation in Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality

BREAST CANCER PRODUCTS

TARGETED THERAPIES

Approved Products
  Avastin
  Herceptin
  Tykerb/Tyverb
Phase III Products
  Afinitor
  Iniparib
  Neratinib
  Nexavar
  Omnitarg
  Ramucirumab
  Tovok
  Trastuzumab emtansine
  Votrient
Phase II Products
  AE37
  AMG
  AZD8931
  Bavituximab
  BMS-690514
  BMS-754807
  Cabozantinib
  CDX-011
  Cixutumab
  Dalotuzumab
  Dinaciclib
  Dovitinib
  Entinostat
  Enzastaurin
  Erbitux
  Ganetespib
  AMG
  INCB7839
  Linifanib
  Mesupron
  MetMAb
  Motesanib
  NeuVax
  OPT-822
  PF-1367338
  Ridaforolimus
  SAR256212
  Sprycel
  Tarceva
  TSU-68
  Vandetanib
  Vectibix
  Veliparib
  Zolinza
  YM155

HORMONAL THERAPIES

Approved Products
  Arimidex
  Aromasin
  Evista
  Fareston
  Faslodex
  Femara
  Nolvadex
  Zoladex
Phase III Products
  Orazol
  Decapeptyl
  Zometa
Phase II Products
  TAS-108

CHEMOTHERAPIES

Approved Products
  Abraxane
  Gemzar
  Halaven
  Ixempra
  Taxotere
  Xeloda
Phase II Products
  Imetelstat
  LEP-ETU
  Tasisulam
  Telcyta
  Tesetaxel
  Thermodox
  Yondelis

APPENDIX

Phase Transition Probability
Glossary
Acronyms
Source Material
  Websites
  General Bibliography
  Product Bibliography

LIST OF TABLES

Current Major Hormonal Therapies
Major Patent Exposure of Leading Brands
Major Patent Exposure of Leading Brands
Major Patent Exposure of Leading Brands
Breast Cancer Therapy Sales Forecasts (2010-2017)
Competitor Ratio Analysis Total Scores
Products under Phase III Development for Breast Cancer
The Launch Landscape for Phase III Targeted Therapies
Products under Phase II Development for Breast Cancer
Products under Phase I Development for Breast Cancer
TMN Classification of Breast Cancer
Five-year Relative Survival Rates by Stage at Diagnosis (US)
Five-year Relative Survival Rates by Tumour Size (US)
Targeted Therapies for Breast Cancer
Hormonal Therapies for Breast Cancer
Chemotherapies for Breast Cancer
Avastin Sales by Company (2009-2017)
Avastin Sales by Indication (2009-2017)
Breast Cancer Drug Discoveries: What the future holds
Herceptin Sales by Company (2009-2017)
Herceptin Sales by Indication (2009-2017)
Tykerb/Tyverb Sales by Indication (2009-2017)
Afinitor Sales by Indication (2009-2017)
Nexavar Sales by Indication (2009-2017)
Omnitarg Sales by Indication (2013-2017)
Ramucirumab Sales by Indication (2015-2017)
LUX-Lung Trials
Tovok Sales by Indication (2014-2017)
Trastuzumab Emtansine Sales (2014-2017)
Votrient Sales by Indication (2009-2017)
Efficacy Results for Erlotinib+Gemcitabine in the Treatment of Pancreatic Cancer
FDA ANDA Approvals for Anastrozole
Arimidex Total Sales (2009-2017)
FDA ANDA Approvals for Exemestane
Aromasin Sales (2009-2017)
Fareston Sales (2009-2017)
Faslodex Sales (2009-2017)
FDA ANDA Approvals for Letrozole
Tentative ANDA Approvals for Letrozole
Femara Sales by Company (2009-2017)
Nolvadex Sales (2009-2017)
Zoladex Sales by Indication (2009-2017)
Abraxane Sales by Company (2009-2017)
Abraxane Sales by Indication (2009-2017)
FDA ANDA Approvals for Gemcitabine
Tentative ANDA Approvals for Gemcitabine
Gemzar Sales By Indication (2009-2017)
Halaven Sales by Indication (2010-2017)
Ixempra Sales by Indication (2009-2017)
Efficacy of Docetaxel in the Treatment of NSCLC Patients Previously Treated with a Platinum-Based CT Regimen (Intent-to-Treat Analysis)
FDA NDA Approvals
Taxotere Sales by Indication (2009-2017)
Xeloda Sales by Company (2009-2017)
Xeloda Sales by Indication (2009-2017)
Probability of Launch

LIST OF CHARTS

Breast Cancer Sales by Therapy Class (2010)
Targeted Therapy Sales (2010)
Hormonal Therapy Sales by Class (2010)
Hormonal Therapy Sales (2010)
Chemotherapy Sales (2010)
Market Share of Breast Cancer Players by Sales (2010)
Breast Cancer Sales by Therapy Class (2017)
Hormonal Therapy Sales (2017)
Chemotherapy Sales (2017)
Targeted Therapy Sales (2017)
Targeted Therapy Market Share by Sales (2017)
Major Breast Cancer Players (2017)
Market Share of Breast Cancer Players by Sales (2017)
Breast Cancer Therapy Sales Forecasts (2010-2017)
Targeted Therapy Sales (2010-2017)
Hormonal Therapy Sales Forecasts (2010-2017)
Chemotherapy Sales Forecasts (2010-2017)
Incidence of Major Cancers Worldwide (2008)
Mortality of Major Cancers Worldwide (2008)
Worldwide Female Breast Cancer Incidence Rates by Region (2008)
Worldwide Female Breast Cancer Mortality Rates by Region (2008)
Female Breast Cancer Incidence Rates by EU Country (2008)
Female Breast Cancer Mortality Rates by EU country (2008)
Avastin Mode of Action
Avastin Sales by Company (2009-2017)
Avastin Sales by Indication (2010)
Avastin Sales by Indication (2017)
HER2 Signalling Pathway
Herceptin Sales (2009-2017)
Herceptin Sales by Indication (2017)
Tykerb/Tyverb Total Sales (2009-2017)
Tykerb Sales by Indication (2017)
Afinitor Mode of Action
Afinitor Sales (2009-2017)
Nexavar’s Dual Mode of Action
Nexavar Sales (2009-2017)
Nexavar Sales by Indication (2010)
Nexavar Sales by Indication (2017)
Omnitarg Sales (2013-2017)
Ramucirumab Sales (2015-2017)
Ramucirumab Sales by Indication (2017)
Tovok Sales (2014-2017)
HER2 Signalling Pathway
Trastuzumab Emtansine Sales (2014-2017)
Votrient Total Sales (2009-2017)
Votrient Sales By Indication (2017)
Upregulation of MET as a Response to Treatment
Dovitinib Mode of Action
Epigenetic Modification of a Histone
Ganetespib Mode of Action
MetMAb Mechanism of Action
NeuVax Mode of Action
Schematic of EGFr Inhibition in Tumourigenesis
Vorinostat Mechanism of Action
Arimidex Total Sales (2009-2017)
Aromasin Sales (2009-2017)
Evista - Invasive BC Incidence - STAR Trial
Fareston Sales (2009-2017)
Faslodex Sales (2009-2017)
Femara Sales by Company (2009-2017)
Nolvadex Sales (2009-2017)
Zoladex Sales (2009-2017)
Zoladex Sales By Indication (2010)
Zoladex Sales By Indication (2017)
Abraxane Sales by Company (2009-2017)
Gemzar Sales (2009-2017)
Halaven Sales (2010-2017)
Ixempra Sales (2009-2017)
TAX 317 Survival K_M Curves - Docetaxel 75mg/m2 vs Best Supportive Care
TAX 320 Survival K_M Curves - Docetaxel 75mg/m2 vs Vinorelbine or Ifosfamide Control
Taxotere Sales (2009-2017)
Taxotere Sales by Indication (2010)
Taxotere Sales by Indication (2017)
Xeloda Sales (2009-2017)
Xeloda Sales by Indication (2010)
Xeloda Sales by Indication (2017)
Canfosfamide Mode of Actio
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