Croatia Shipping Report Q1 2016

Date: November 18, 2015
Pages: 80
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We estimate positive growth in tonnage and box throughput at Croatia's largest port, the Port of Rijeka, for 2015. Although this will be slower than 2014 we forecast that in 2016 tonnage handled will increase faster and container throughput growth will remain strong. Croatia's main trading partners are other eurozone members meaning that trade is restrained by poor economic performance experienced in the region over recent years. Nevertheless Croatia's GDP will turn positive in 2015 following six years of negative growth and this also reflects developments in other European countries providing optimism for increased trade going forward.

Growth To Stabilise At Port Of Rijeka

Our forecast for 2016 growth in terms of tonnes throughput is at 2.8%, close to our 2015 estimate of 2.7%. We estimate box handling growth remained stronger at an estimated 8.2% in 2015, to settle at 5.9% in 2016. The port has experienced important growth in container throughput since 2011 when International Terminal Services (ICTS) acquired a stake in the port and focused on its development as a maritime gateway, but we expect this to even out over the medium term and average at 4.9% between 2015 and 2019. Similarly, tonnage throughput will settle at around 3% with our forecasts indicating an average of 3.5% growth over the medium term. The recovering but depressed European economy is still holding back extensive trade expansion which is evident in other Croatian ports with the Port of Ploce's box handling estimated to contract by 2.3% in 2015 and 2.0% in 2016. An average GDP real growth of 1.4% forecasted over the medium term does not offer room for much optimism on strong expansion in Croatia's shipping industry in the coming years but remains a welcome projection as it follows six years of contraction with GDP growth averaging -1.2% in the previous five years.
BMI Industry View
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Port Of Rijeka Throughput
  Table: Major Ports Data (Croatia 2012-2019)
  Table: Trade Overview (Croatia 2012-2019)
  Table: Key Trade Indicators (Croatia 2012-2019)
  Table: Croatia's Top Import Partners, 2006-2013 (USDmn)
  Table: Croatia's Top Export Destinations, 2006-2013 (USDmn)
Market Overview
Croatia Container Shipping Market Overview
Shipping - Global Industry View
Bright Spot For Shipping: Low Bunker Prices
  Table: BMI Bunker Fuel (IFO180 & MGO) Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months)
Long-Term Outlook
Risks To Outlook
Global Company Strategy
Maersk Line
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
Evergreen Line
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
  Table: Economic Activity (Croatia 2010-2019)
Demographic Forecast
  Table: Population Headline Indicators (Croatia 1990-2025)
  Table: Key Population Ratios (Croatia 1990-2025)
  Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Croatia 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group (Croatia 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group % (Croatia 1990-2025)
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