Colombia Shipping Report Q1 2016

Date: November 4, 2015
Pages: 86
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The healthy level of growth seen at Colombia's main ports in 2015 is a trend we anticipate to continue over not only the short but medium term. Short-term growth will be stymied slightly, however, by slowing growth in Colombia, which will affect domestic demand for goods transported by sea. In 2016, we forecast that the leading port in y-o-y tonnage and box terms will be the port of Cartagena, which will see yo-y gains of 5.00% and 5.01%, respectively.

Key drivers underpinning our forecasts include the fact that Colombia's consumer confidence index reading plunged in August 2015, contracting by 0.4% in that month, which further underpins our view for slowing growth in Colombia, and an area for concern for the country's shippers as demand for goods transported via sea could fall going forward. With rising inflation cutting into consumer purchasing power, and consumer confidence cooling fast, we expect retail sales growth to remain relatively tepid in the months ahead, which tempers our shipping forecasts somewhat. Also, Colombia's goods trade deficit looks poised to remain sizeable in the years ahead, on the back of low oil prices and sluggish crude production growth. While the Colombian peso's plunge will offer tailwinds to non-oil exports, structural obstacles in the agricultural and manufacturing sector will temper gains.
BMI Industry View
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Port Of Cartagena Throughput
Port Of Buenaventura Throughput
  Table: Major Ports Data (Colombia 2012-2019)
  Table: Trade Overview (Colombia 2012-2019)
  Table: Key Trade Indicators (Colombia 2012-2019)
  Table: Colombia's Main Import Partners, 2006-2013 (USDmn)
  Table: Colombia's Main Export Destinations, 2006-2013 (USDmn)
Market Overview
Colombia Container Shipping Market Overview
Global Industry Overview
Bright Spot For Shipping: Low Bunker Prices
  Table: BMI Bunker Fuel (IFO180 & MGO) Price Forecast
Short-Term Outlook (three-to-six months)
Long-Term Outlook
Risks To Outlook
Global Company Strategy
Maersk Line
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
Evergreen Line
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
  Table: Colombia - Key Economic Indicators
  Table: Colombia - Private Consumption Forecasts
  Table: Colombia - Government Consumption Forecasts
  Table: Colombia - Fixed Investment Forecasts
  Table: Colombia - Net Exports Forecasts
Demographic Forecast
  Table: Population Headline Indicators (Colombia 1990-2025)
  Table: Key Population Ratios (Colombia 1990-2025)
  Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Colombia 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group (Colombia 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group % (Colombia 1990-2025)
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