Bulgaria Autos Report Q3 2015

Date: June 3, 2015
Pages: 60
Price:
US$ 1,295.00
Publisher: BMI RESEARCH
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: Download
ID: B6EFD5066A1EN
Leaflet:

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

We forecast that the slowdown in vehicle sales growth seen in 2014 will intensify in 2015, and have revised down our passenger car sales forecast for the year to growth of just 1.1% to 20,583 units, down from 3.8% previously. Owing to our Country Risk team's bearish macroeconomic outlook for Bulgaria, we are also revising down our light commercial vehicle and heavy truck sales forecasts for 2015.

Part of the longer term problem for the new vehicle market in Bulgaria is the practice of hanging on to older vehicles, a practice which we believe will intensify due to lower oil prices. According to a report published in June 2014, data from the Bulgarian traffic police show that 39% of all registered vehicles are more than 20 years old. We believe this trend will continue as fuel costs fall alongside falling oil prices. Falling fuel prices will make replacing older, less fuel-efficient vehicles with more fuel efficient new vehicles a much less attractive option than simply keeping older vehicles. Owing to our Country Risk team's worsening macroeconomic outlook for Bulgaria, we are revising down our light commercial vehicle (LCV) forecast for 2015. We now forecast sales to drop 0.5% over 2015, down from a forecasted 5% gain, previously. As tightening credit conditions and weak consumer confidence weigh on spending, our country risk forecast real GDP growth to grow by a disappointing 0.8%. All this considered, we highlight that the heavy truck segment looks set to perform marginally better than LCVs. Owing to the strong correlation between heavy truck demand and construction activity, we believe heavy truck sales will expand 3.0% in 2015 alongside 1.7% real growth in the construction sector.
BMI Industry View
SWOT
Political
Economic
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
  Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2013-2019)
Sales
Production
Commercial Vehicles
  Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Bulgaria 2013-2019)
Suppliers
  Table: Exports of Automotive Components By Product, '000 USD
Macroeconomic Forecast
Economic Analysis
  Table: GDP Contribution To Growth (Bulgaria 2012-2020)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Europe - Risk/Reward Index
  Table: Europe Autos Risk/Reward Index
Company Profile
Company Monitor
VW: Piech Out As VW Looks For Global Lead
PSA: Family Feud Clouds Ownership Future
Renault: Increased Government Influence Shakes Alliance
EPIQ Electronic Assembly
Alucom
Regional Overview
Industry Trend Analysis
Global Industry Overview
  Table: Passenger Car Sales March (CBUs)
US Slowdown A Temporary Glitch?
Europe Recovery Will Be Steady
Asia Carries The BRIC States
Demographic Forecast
Bulgaria Autos Report Q3 2015
Demographic Outlook
  Table: Population Headline Indicators (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
  Table: Key Population Ratios (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
  Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
  Table: Population By Age Group % (Bulgaria 1990-2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecasts
Sector-Specific Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
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