Zambia Mining Report Q4 2016

Date: August 24, 2016
Pages: 63
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Zambia's mining royalty reversal will support the sector's investment outlook. However, both low copper and coal prices and the country's high degree of mineral policy uncertainty will continue to limit the sector's production growth until the country's Presidential elections in 2016.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends
  • The country's political uncertainty will continue to play a big role in whether future investment will materialize. For instance, over the first six months of 2015, the mining code was adjusted three times, increasing uncertainty among existing and potential long-term investors in the sector. In our view, miners will become increasingly concerned about the uncertain political climate and will limit or halt new projects from coming online altogether.
  • The volatility of power supply in hydropower-reliant countries will also warrant investor caution in energy intensive sectors across the region. For example, Zambian power supply deficits had a detrimental impact on mining operations in the country's Copperbelt (see 'Challenges To Come From All Sides', October 25 2015). Widespread load-shedding in Zambia made power exports politically toxic for the Zambian government (see 'Electricity Shortages To Curb Katanga Mining Industry', September 17 2015). Previously, poor rainfall levels over 2014-2015, forced the government to ration water used in power generation, reportedly costing the state-owned utility Zesco USD116mn thus far in 2015. Given that hydropower accounts for over 90% of total electricity generation, any fluctuations in the weather will have a negative impact on Zambian power output (see: 'Eastern Interconnections To Improve Energy Security' July 16 2015).
BMI Industry View
  Table: Zambia Mining Industry Value Forecast (2014-2020)
Latest Developments & Structural Trends
Industry Forecast
Copper: Major Challenges Ahead
Latest Developments
  Table: Copper Production Forecast (Zambia 2015-2020)
  Table: Zambia - Major New Copper Projects/ Expansions
Structural Trends
  Table: Zambia: Hydropower Projects
Coal: Positive Yet Muted Growth
Latest Developments
  Table: Coal Production Forecast (Zambia 2015-2020)
  Table: Zambia - Coal Projects
Structural Trends
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Zambia Risk/Reward Index
Africa - Risk/Reward Index
Key Takeaways
Latest Revisions
  Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Indices
Regulatory Development
Zambia- Regulatory Development- Policy Uncertainty To Curb Growth
  Table: Zambia - Trade & Investment Risk Analysis
Commodities Forecast
Commodities Outlook
  Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Zambia Key Players - Comparative Valuation Metrics
Company Profile
Global Company Strategy - Glencore
  Table: Selected Commodities - Price Forecasts
Company Analysis
  Table: Glencore - Key Projects
  Table: Glencore - Key Financial Data
Vedanta Resources – Q4 2016
  Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts
Latest Financial Results
Company Strategy
  Table: Vedanta Resources - Key Financial Data
Regional Overview
Sub-Saharan Africa Overview
  Table: SSA - Government Involvement In Mining Sector
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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