Zambia Mining Report Q1 2016

Date: December 2, 2015
Pages: 54
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: Download
ID: Z0E403C87C8EN

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Zambia's mining royalty reversal will support the sector's investment outlook. However, both low copper and coal prices and the country's high degree of mineral policy uncertainty will continue to limit the sector's production growth until the country's Presidential elections in 2016.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends
  • Mineral policy uncertainty will continue to hurt the sector's growth. Although the April 20, 2015 downwards royalty tax revision is positive news for miners, mineral policy uncertainty will limit a share of investors from entering the sector. The new royalty tax will come into effect on July 1 2015 and will cut royalties on open pit mining from 20.0% to 9.0%. The downwards revision supports our view that the royalty tax would be unsustainable in its current form (see 'Tax Moderation On The Cards' January 9).
  • The current Zambian President, Edward Lungu, was narrowly elected on a populist platform in January 2015, hence his reaffirmation of the previous mining royalty tax. However, with the April 2015 slashing of the mining tax, Lungu has backpedalled on his populist stance. As a result, we expect mineral royalties to become a hot topic for the upcoming 2016 Presidential election and for mining policy uncertainty to remain high.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Zambia Mining Industry Value Forecast (2014-2019)
Latest Developments & Structural Trends
Industry Forecast
Copper: Major Challenges Ahead
Latest Developments
  Table: Copper Production Forecast (Zambia 2014-2019)
  Table: Zambia - Major New Copper Projects/ Expansions
Structural Trends
  Table: Zambia: Hydropower Projects
Coal: Sold Growth, Despite Weak Project Pipeline
Latest Developments
  Table: Coal Production Forecast (Zambia 2011-2019)
  Table: Zambia - Coal Projects
Structural Trends
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Zambia Risk/Reward Index
Africa: Major Risks Remain
Key Takeaways
Latest Revisions
  Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index
Regulatory Development
Zambia- Regulatory Development- Policy Uncertainty To Curb Growth
Commodities Forecast
Commodities Outlook
  Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Zambia Key Players - Comparative Valuation Metrics
Company Profile
Global Company Strategy - Vedanta Resources - Q1 2016
Latest Financial Results
Company Strategy
  Table: Vedanta Resources - Supply Chain Analysis
Company Details
  Table: Vedanta Resources - Key Financial Data
First Quantum - Q1 2016
Latest Results
  Table: First Quantum: Key Financial Data
Regional Overview
Africa Mining: The Four Key Themes
Key Themes
Chinese Investment To Continue
Iron Ore Price Weakness To Curb Growth
Regulatory Uncertainty To Curb Growth
Mining To Remain Key Contributor To GDP
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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