South Africa Mining Report Q1 2016

Date: January 13, 2016
Pages: 90
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: Download

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: South Africa's mining sector will face persistent headwinds due to labour unrest, mineral price weakness, further divestments and retrenchment.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends
  • On December 8 2015, Anglo American announced a restructuring plan that will focus on divestment of non-core and loss-making assets, downsizing its workforce and consolidating business divisions in an effort to weather ongoing commodity price weakness. South Africa's coal industry will be significantly hit by Anglo's restructuring plans as the firm accounts for nearly 21.5% of the country's total thermal coal production. Furthermore, Anglo's plans to cut employment will hit the sector as well, as Anglo employs over 24,500 in their thermal coal operations, while the firm's total employment within South Africa totals 72,000.
  • As Anglo American is keen to offload the majority of its South-African assets, this could result in a significant decline in the country's coal production growth. As such, we revised down our 2016 and 2017 coal production forecast from 1.3% to -4.0% and 1.0% to -1.5%, respectively. Despite this, South Africa, which is Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)'s largest coal producer, with a 94.6% share of regional coal production in 2015, will remain the region's largest coal producer. We forecast South Africa's coal production to grow from 252million tonnes (mnt) in 2016 to 264mnt in 2019. This would represent average annual growth of 0.1% during 2016-2019, slightly higher than the average 0.9% decline during 2010-2014.
BMI Industry View
  Table: South Africa Mining Industry Value Forecast
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
Industry Forecast
Coal: Growth To Pick Up Beyond 2017
Latest Updates
  Table: Coal Production Forecast (South Africa 2014-2020)
  Table: South Africa - Major Coal Projects & Expansions
Structural Trends
Gold: Growth To Grind To A Halt
Latest Updates
  Table: Gold Production Forecast (South Africa 2014-2019)
Structural Trends
Iron Ore: Weak Prices To Curb Growth
Latest Updates
  Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (South Africa 2014-2020)
  Table: South Africa - Major New Iron Ore Projects & Expansions
Structural Trends
Platinum: Production Downturn Due To Rising Costs
Latest Updates
  Table: South Africa - Platinum Mine Production & Growth (2014-2019)
Structural Trends
Palladium: Sector To Face Numerous Challenges
Latest Updates
  Table: Palladium Production (South Africa 2013-2019)
  Table: South Africa - Palladium Projects
Structural Trends
Industry Risk Reward Index
South Africa Risk/Reward Index
Africa: Major Risks Remain
Key Takeaways
Latest Revisions
  Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index
Regulatory Development
Trade & Investment Risk Analysis
South Africa - Mining Industry End Game: Four Potential Scenarios
  Table: Mining Sector Scenarios
Commodities Outlook
  Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
  Table: South Africa - Largest Mining Companies' Financial Data, 2014
Company Profile
Global Company Strategy - AngloGold Ashanti - Q1 2016
Latest Results
  Table: AngloGold Ashanti - Key Financial Data
Global Company Strategy - Impala Platinum - Q1 2016
  Table: Impala Platinum - Key Financial Data
Anglo American - Q1 2016
Company Strategy
Latest Results
  Table: Anglo American - Financial Data
Anglo American's Plan: South Africa To Be Hit Hardest
  Table: Anglo American - Mines & Projects
Regional Overview
Africa Mining: The Four Key Themes
Key Themes
Chinese Investment To Continue
Iron Ore Price Weakness To Curb Growth
Regulatory Uncertainty To Curb Growth
Mining To Remain Key Contributor To GDP
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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