Peru Mining Report 2010

Date: May 22, 2010
Pages: 42
US$ 1,175.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF), Download
ID: P348A75707FEN

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Peru has a fast-growing mining sector, and is host to an array of natural resources, including copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver and zinc, among other minerals. Peru is now the world’s number one producer of silver and second largest producer of copper, after Chile. The Peruvian mining sector has proved attractive to foreign investment, with industry giants BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Vale and Barrick Gold all having investments in Peru.

The industry benefits from relatively good levels of political and financial stability, coupled with a developing regulatory framework. In addition, the local industry managed to weather the global economic crisis relatively unscathed, according to our estimates. As such, the scene should be set for strong growth over our newly extended forecast period to 2014. However, labour unrest remains a concern, with a national strike (over bonuses) planned for June 2010. In addition, there is increasing anger from indigenous peoples at the environmental and social damage that mining activity is causing. These protests have occasionally turned violent in the past.

New Data

For 2010 BMI has made significant changes to the way in which we forecast mining data. As well as using local statistics agencies and associations, we also draw on the expertise of the UN’s Industrial Commodity Statistics Database, the US Geological Survey and the World Bureau of Metal Statistics for our historical export and production data. We then forecast this data using our own proprietary econometric model. Human intervention plays a necessary and desirable role in our mining forecasting; experience, expertise and knowledge of industry trends and developments ensure that we spot likely future changes and anomalous data that a purely mechanical model would not.

Industry Forecast

Peru’s mining sector performed much better in 2009 than many of its regional peers. Given this fact, and with demand for Peruvian raw materials set to grow rapidly in the coming years, we now believe that the scene is set for strong growth from the industry to 2014. We believe the sector will grow at an average rate of about 8.9% over our forecast period, as a raft of new mining projects come onstream.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Peru Political SWOT 6
Peru Economic SWOT 6
Peru Business Environment SWOT 7
Global Mining Outlook 8
  Table: Rio Tinto’s Capital And Major Evaluation Projects For 2010 8
BMI Views 9
Risks To Outlook 10
Industry Trends And Developments 12
Overview 12
Regulatory Structure And Developments 12
Key Projects 14
Iron Ore 14
Gold And Silver 14
Copper 15
Lead And Zinc 15
Mining Business Environment Ratings 16
  Table: Americas Mining Business Environment Ratings 16
Political Environment 17
Long-Term Political Outlook 17
Industry Forecast Scenario 21
Commodities Forecast – Copper 21
  Table: BMI’s Copper Forecasts. 21
  Table: Copper Data And Forecasts, 2005-2011 23
Commodities Forecast – Aluminium 24
  Table: BMI’s Aluminium Forecasts 24
  Table: Aluminium Data And Forecasts, 2005-2011 26
Commodities Forecast – Gold 27
  Table: BMI’s Gold Forecasts 27
  Table: Gold Data And Forecasts, 2002-2009 (tonnes) 28
Peru’s Mining Industry Forecast 28
  Table: Peru’s Mining Data And Forecasts, 2007-2014 29
Competitive Landscape 31
Company Monitor 32
Compania de Minas Buenaventura SAA 32
Barrick Gold 33
Compania Minera Antamina 34
Global Assumptions 35
  Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth And Exchange Rates, 2009-2012 35
  Table: Global Assumptions, 2008-2014 36
  Table: Developed States’ Real GDP Growth, 2009-2012 37
  Table: Emerging Markets’ Real GDP Growth, 2009-2012 38
Business Environment Ratings Methodology 40
  Table: Mining Business Environment Indicators 41
  Table: Weighting Of Components 42
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