Namibia Mining Report Q2 2016

Date: March 23, 2016
Pages: 45
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)
ID: N39E554443DEN

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Namibia Mining Report Q2 2016
BMI View: Namibia will remain one of the smaller players in the wider Sub-Saharan Africa mining sector, though we believe the market is well positioned for growth over the next few years. The main driver of growth will be the country's emerging uranium mining industry which is benefiting from high levels of overseas investments and development. However, we believe softness in global commodity markets will temper growth in the short term, with further contraction in the country's diamond production expected in 2016 as prices remain under pressure globally.

Latest Forecasts And Developments
  • We have lowered our projections for Namibia's diamond output downwards falling February 2016's announcement by industry leader Namdeb that the company's production volumes had fallen to 400,000 carats in Q415, representing a y-o-y drop of 18%. The miner attributed the contraction to continued softness in global diamond prices and the decision to focus mining activity on lower grade deposits over the quarter.
  • We now forecast Namibia's total diamond production to contract by 1.7% y-o-y in 2016 to 1.57mn tonnes; we anticipate a return to positive growth in 2017, with total output reaching 1.72mn carats by 2020.Our outlook for the uranium mining sub-sector remains positive.
  • Canada's Bannerman Resources has reported further positive results from Phase 2 of the Etango Heap Leach Demonstration Plant Program mine. A recent optimisation of Etango resulted in an improvement of the project's net present value to USD419mn from USD69mn, with production averaging 7.2mn pounds of Triuranium octoxide annually over an initial open pit mine life of 15.7 years.
  • BMI forecasts Namibia's uranium production to grow by 4.0% in 2016 to 3.5kt. Mining activity will accelerate from 2017 as a number of foreign-led developments come online. We project output to increase by 10% y-o-y over 2017-2020 to reach 5.1kt by the end of the forecast period.
BMI Industry View
  Table: Namibia - Mining Industry Value
Latest Forecasts And Developments
Industry Forecast
Uranium: FDI To Support Long-Term Growth
Latest Developments
  Table: Uranium Production (Namibia 2012-2020)
Structural Trends
  Table: Namibia - Uranium Exploration Projects
Diamonds: Offshore Development Key To Expansion
Latest Developments
  Table: Diamond Production (Namibia 2013-2020)
  Table: Namibia - Diamond Exploration Projects
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Namibia Risk/Reward Index
Africa: Major Risks Remain
Key Takeaways
Latest Revisions
  Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index
Regulatory Development
Commodities Forecast
Commodities Outlook
  Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Africa - Largest Listed Mining Companies
Company Profile
Global Company Strategy - Vedanta Resources - Q1 2016
Latest Financial Results
Company Strategy
  Table: Vedanta Resources - Supply Chain Analysis
Company Details
  Table: Vedanta Resources - Key Financial Data
Regional Overview
  Table: SSA - Government Involvement In Mining Sector
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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