Mozambique Mining Report Q4 2016

Date: September 7, 2016
Pages: 53
US$ 1,295.00
Report type: Strategic Report
Delivery: E-mail Delivery (PDF)

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Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Mozambique's mining revenue will remain heavily dependent on the country's coal sector, leaving the sector exposed to continued global coal price weakness. Despite this, coal production growth will continue to exceed gold output growth. Furthermore, both sectors will continue to attract interest from overseas investors.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends
  • We remain bullish towards gold prices and have marginally bumped up our 2016 and 2017 price forecasts to USD1,300/oz (from USD1,275/oz) and USD1,400/oz (from USD1,350/oz), respectively. Economic (slowing US growth) and political (Brexit) developments in recent months have reinforced our belief that real interest rates in developed markets will remain depressed through 2016-2018 at least. While this trajectory has largely been priced into markets for 2016, we expect that real rates will surprise to the downside in 2017-2018. This will come as global inflation and economic growth surprise to the upside and downside, respectively.
  • The suspension of donor aid to Mozambique in the wake of the hidden debt scandal has prompted us to downgrade our construction growth forecasts for 2016, to 4.0% in real terms down from the original projection of 4.8%. The government will struggle to fund the road and social infrastructure projects earmarked in its budget, as the weak commodities outlook alongside high recurrent expenditure weighs on the fiscal balance.
BMI Industry View
BMI Industry View
  Table: Mozambique Mining Industry Value
Latest Developments & Structural Trends
Industry Forecast
Coal: Infrastructure & Low Prices To Constrain Growth
Latest Developments
  Table: Mozambique - Coal Production Forecasts
  Table: Mozambique - New Coal Projects
Structural Trends
India & Japan To Ramp Up Investment
Price Drop Hits Profitability Though Not Output
Infrastructure Remains Key Challenge
Gold: Growth To Lack Behind Coal Sector
Latest Developments
  Table: Mozambique - Gold Production Forecast
  Table: Mozambique - Gold Projects
Structural Trends
Exploration Points To Potential Long-Term Expansion
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Mozambique - Mining Risk/Reward Index
Industry Rewards
Country Rewards
Industry Risks
Country Risks
Africa - Risk/Reward Index
Key Takeaways
Latest Revisions
  Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Indices
Regulatory Development
Trade & Investment Risk Analysis
Commodities Forecast
Commodities Outlook
  Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
  Table: Select Companies - Comparative Metrics
Company Profile
Global Company Strategy - Vale - Q4 2016
Company Overview
Company Strategy
  Table: Select Companies - Operational Data
  Table: Vale - Key Financial Data
Regional Overview
Sub-Saharan Africa Overview
  Table: SSA - Government Involvement In Mining Sector
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
  Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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